Key points of investment
Demand for overseas terminal consumption slowed, and high inventory consumption affected revenue. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1,648 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.18%, and net profit to mother of 128 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.03%. This is mainly due to high inventories and weak consumption in overseas terminal markets due to geopolitical conflicts and inflation, leading to a decline in the company's shipments. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 296 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.50%; net profit to mother was 0.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.50%.
Committed to building the “first brand of electric two-wheeler drive systems”, the production expansion project is progressing steadily. In 2023, the company participated in the China International Bicycle Show (Shanghai, China), Eurobike European Bicycle Show (Frankfurt, Germany), The Cycle Show (London, England), SeaOtter Classic (California, USA), etc., and received attention from customers and overseas media, further strengthening its brand power. In terms of production capacity, the infrastructure project of the company's subsidiary was successfully completed, and the infrastructure for the Bafang New Energy lithium battery pack and high-end drive system manufacturing project was basically completed. The wholly-owned subsidiaries Bafang New Energy, Express Electric and Electric Motorcycle divisions have settled in one after another in 2024, becoming another important production and operation base for the company in Suzhou.
Overseas sales and service networks are complete. Companies with long-term potential for electric scooter development have set up subsidiaries in major regions of the US and Europe to hire overseas employees to implement “localized after-sales service” in the European market. At the same time, the company actively promotes the DDS dealer direct service system project with the Netherlands as the first site. Currently, the dealer website is officially open to the public, and has introduced many customers. In the long run, with the acceleration of low-carbon and zero-carbon policies, overseas subsidies and infrastructure construction efforts are expected to increase. There is plenty of room for improvement in the penetration rate of the overseas electric scooter industry, and the company has great potential for development.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The profit forecast was lowered and the “buy” rating was maintained. The global electric scooter motor leader is speeding up the deployment of the domestic motorcycle market. Considering that it will take time for overseas terminal consumer demand to slow inventory removal, we lowered the company's 24-25 profit forecast. The net profit for 24-25 years is expected to be 1.50 million yuan and 215 million yuan (441 million yuan and 598 million yuan before the 24-25 reduction, respectively), and the net profit forecast for the additional 26 years is 262 million yuan, corresponding EPS is 0.89, 1.28, and 1.56 yuan/share. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 39, 27, and 22 times, respectively.
Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The recovery in overseas market demand fell short of expectations, the risk of changes in the international trade environment, and increased risk from market competition.