Incidents:
On June 1, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced delivery data for May. In May 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 10,146 new cars, up 35% year on year and 8% month on month. From January to May 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 41,360 new vehicles, an increase of 26% over the previous year.
Model sales have recovered, and the X9 is gaining momentum. Overseas markets are expanding. In May 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 10,146 new cars, an increase of 35% over the previous year and an increase of 8% over the previous year. Among them, the Xiaopeng X9 “Nine Crowns” delivered 1,625 units, and a total of 11,456 units were delivered in May, continuing to lead the pure electric MPV and pure electric three-seater models. From January to May 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 41,360 new vehicles, an increase of 26% over the previous year. At the same time, Xiaopeng Motor's overseas market expansion into the Australian and French markets will bring Xiaopeng Motor's key models, including the Xiaopeng G9 and G6, to users in the Australian and French markets. In May, the Xiaopeng G6 and X9 were officially unveiled in Hong Kong. The first right steering version of the Xiaopeng G6 is expected to be delivered in the third quarter of this year, and overseas markets are expected to continue to contribute to growth.
MONA will be launched in June, and the B-side and C-end will clearly work together. Judging from the model plan, the first model of the Mona brand is expected to be launched in June, and the next model of the Xiaopeng brand is expected to be launched in Q4. The new car cycle is intense. The Mona sub-brand represents “made of new AI” and is expected to become a global popularizer of AI smart driving cars. Among them, the first model of the Mona sub-brand is priced in the price range of 10-15 thousand. The new car is positioned as a compact pure electric sedan, which is expected to redefine the smart A-Class.
Intelligent driving continues to accelerate, and large models from end to end are gradually being launched
Looking at the progress of intelligent driving, the penetration rate of monthly active smart driving users in XNGP urban areas reached 84%. As of May 31, 2024, XNGP has fully covered 283 cities across the country, and the scope of Kaesong continues to expand. At the same time, XNGP's official vehicle test mileage has accumulated over 6.46 million kilometers, and effective mileage data is expected to continue to accumulate. On May 20, Xiaopeng Motor held a press conference in Beijing on the theme of “Starting the Era of AI Smart Driving” to announce the full launch of the AI Tianji system to users, and the industry's first mass-produced “end-to-end” large-scale model, the world's first AI chauffeur service, and the first model in the MONA series.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The new model is about to be launched, and the company is expected to reach an inflection point in sales. The iterative catalyst for intelligent driving and the pace of model launches are expected to help the company reverse financial data. We expect the company's sales volume for 24/25/26 to be 22/61/750,000 vehicles, with corresponding revenue of 506/981/109.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65%/94%/11%, respectively. Net profit attributable to mother was -57/7/2.9 billion yuan, respectively. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: The advancement of intelligent functions falls short of expectations; the impact of intelligence on vehicle sales is less than expected.