The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that at present, China's multi-level unified electricity market system has begun to take shape, and a mechanism for the market to determine electricity prices has initially taken shape. According to data from the National Energy Administration, in 2023, China's electricity transactions account for more than 61% of total electricity consumption; market-based electricity from new energy sources accounts for nearly 50% of electricity generation. The degree of participation of new energy companies in market-based electricity transactions continues to increase, and the marketization of electricity has become an inevitable trend. The entry of new energy into the market requires predicting the price of electricity connected to the project based on market-based factors. The project's power generation priority and output curve will all become important indicators for revenue estimation. The application of digital technology in connecting enterprises to the electricity trading market is also becoming more important, and it is expected that the demand for a series of information-based construction services such as assisted decision-making transactions and spot electricity price forecasting will increase.
Sorting out the key points of the “Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan”: Accelerating the development and consumption of non-fossil energy, and deepening the market-based reform of new energy feed-in tariffs
1) Strengthen the development of non-fossil energy: By the end of 2025, the country's non-fossil energy generation will account for about 39%; 2) increase renewable energy consumption capacity: improve transmission capacity across provinces and regions, speed up distribution grid transformation; vigorously develop new technologies and models such as microgrids, virtual power plants, and vehicle network interaction. By the end of 2025, the demand response capacity of each region should generally reach 3% to 5% of the maximum electricity consumption load. The demand response capacity of regions with annual peak and valley differences of more than 40% should reach more than 5% of the maximum electricity consumption load.
3) Vigorously promote non-fossil energy consumption: On the premise of ensuring economy, the utilization rate of new energy in regions with better resource conditions can be reduced to 90%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in new high-energy projects two years after the “14th Five-Year Plan” must not be less than 20%; 4) Improve price policies: implement coal capacity electricity prices, deepen market-based reform of new energy feed-in tariffs, and study and improve energy storage price mechanisms.
Focus on the use and consumption of non-fossil energy, and the construction of power supply/grid/demand-side information technology is expected to accelerate
Power side: Non-fossil energy sources, such as photovoltaics and wind power, are intermittent and volatile. It is expected that large-scale grid connection will have an impact on issues such as grid operation stability. As a result, demand for information-based construction such as power generation forecasting and operation and maintenance of new energy assets is expected to increase.
Grid side: The “Plan” mentions improving the consumption capacity of renewable energy, improving transmission capacity across provinces and regions, and speeding up distribution grid transformation; according to national power industry statistics released by the National Energy Administration, the growth rate of completed power grid investment in April 2024 exceeded expectations, +25% year-on-year in January-April, +47% year-on-month in April, and +5% month-on-month.
Demand side: Virtual power plants are an important means of balancing electricity supply and demand and improving the consumption capacity of renewable energy; according to the China Telecommunication Union's “National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report for the First Quarter of 2024”, the maximum electricity consumption load in 2024 is expected to increase by 100 million kilowatts compared to 2023, and the overall tight balance of the national electricity supply and demand situation during the peak summer period in 2024; under the standard of demand response capacity reaching 3% to 5% of the maximum electricity consumption load in 2025, the construction of virtual power plants is expected to accelerate.
Industry ratings and investment strategies: Low-carbon energy saving action plans have been released. The construction of new power systems and power system reforms are expected to accelerate all aspects of informatization construction and maintain the computer industry's “recommended” rating.
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Risk warning: Policies fall short of expectations, increased market competition, performance of related targets falls short of expectations, R&D progress of related companies falls short of expectations, macroeconomics affects downstream demand, etc.