Editor's note:《Monthly Hong Kong and US Stocks Bull and Bear Shares》The column closely follows market trends, takes stock of the monthly performance of the Hong Kong and US stock markets, helps newcomers sort out the month's hot sectors, strong individual stocks, and major news, and find profitable investment topics.
This month, the trend of the three major US stock indices diverged. Driven by large technology stocks led by Nvidia, the NASDAQ rose 6.89% this month for the best performance. The S&P 500 index rose by 3.97%, while the Dow, which mainly focuses on cyclical stocks, only rose 0.78%. The trend is slightly lackluster.
Market hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates several times this year are gradually fading away. A series of recent remarks by Federal Reserve officials highlighted their intention to keep borrowing costs high for as long as necessary to curb continued high inflation. Furthermore, the unexpected strength of the economy has also heightened market concerns that the US Federal Reserve, which is focused on fighting the stubborn rate of inflation, may continue to postpone interest rate cuts over the next few months, and may not cut interest rates throughout the year.
It is worth noting that after the next Federal Reserve policy meeting on June 12, Fed officials will release new economic growth and inflation forecasts, as well as the interest rate bitmap that the market is most concerned about. Interest rate futures traders are betting that interest rates may only be cut once for the rest of the year. Generally, they bet that November is the most likely, followed by December; the possibility of two interest rate cuts throughout the year is less than 50%, which is significantly smaller than the probability of about 70% in early May.
In terms of specific individual stock performance, AI “consumes electricity” violently, photovoltaic solar circuits are rising steadily, and US PV stocks$First Solar (FSLR.US)$This month's increase was nearly 57%.
Some industry insiders said that recent attention to power demand in AI data centers has also led investors to view clean energy stocks as a market segment that can benefit from the AI boom; among them, photovoltaic solar energy stocks have been in a value depression for a long time. As industry fundamentals improve and policy coordination gain strength, AI development has not yet been fully priced, and it is expected that there will be room for further growth in the future.
Bitcoin price soared, “Bitcoin shadow stock”, the listed company that holds the most Bitcoin in the world$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$It surged more than 44% this month.
Bitcoin set a record this year thanks to two catalysts: the approval of a spot ETF in January and the halving event in late April. As of now, the world's largest cryptocurrency has risen by more than 60% so far this year. Analysts said that the next round of Bitcoin's sharp rise may rely on these four major catalysts: interest rate cuts, regulatory changes, the US election, and the reshaping of Bitcoin's functions.
The increase during the year outperformed Nvidia! The hottest US power stocks$Vistra Energy (VST.US)$It surged nearly 39% this month.
The “AI Gold Rush” has swept through all walks of life, and none has performed better than Vistra Energy, one of the largest electricity producers and retail energy providers in the US. The stock has accumulated a cumulative increase of more than 174% since this year, outperforming Nvidia's annual increase of about 123%.
The AI PC concept is hot! computer manufacturer$HP Inc (HPQ.US)$,$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$Both surged more than 36% this month.
Damo predicts that AI PCs will be the next key factor driving the growth of the PC market. The market penetration rate of AI PCs is expected to grow rapidly from 2% this year to 64% in 2028.
Notably, Dell announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 after the US stock market on May 30. Although Dell's total revenue and segmented business revenue both exceeded expectations, the backlog of AI server orders reached 3.8 billion US dollars or a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase, it failed to impress investors with high expectations for AI, and adjusted EPS profits declined, and the stock price plummeted by nearly 18% after the market.
In addition, the consumer goods industry performed extremely well this month, “the middle class pursues” high-end footwear brands$On Holding (ONON.US)$, and parent companies of UGG and Hoka$Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US)$Stock prices both rose more than 30% this month.
On the other hand, the weakest performing stocks this month are as follows:
edit/emily