The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that maintaining the “superior to market” rating of Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868), considering the intense competition in the automobile industry in 2024, the company lacked support for new models in the first quarter and sales pressure. The new models were mainly focused on listing in the second half of the year, production capacity gradually climbed, and lowered the company's revenue forecast and profit forecast. The estimated revenue for 2024-2026 is 462/730/92 billion yuan, and net profit is -60/29/1.1 billion yuan.
The main views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
Revenue for the first quarter was 6.55 billion yuan, an increase of 62% over the previous year.
In the first quarter of 2024, the company's total revenue was 6.55 billion yuan, up 62.4% year on year and down 49.8% month on month; net profit was -1.37 billion yuan, 2.34 billion yuan in the same period last year, and -1.35 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking at the breakdown, 1) 2024Q1 automobile sales revenue was 5.54 billion yuan, up 57.8% year on year and down 54.7% month on month. The year-on-year increase was mainly due to increased delivery volume in 2024Q1 (especially X9). The month-on-month decrease was mainly due to reduced deliveries of the G6 and 2024 G9 models, plus seasonal effects. 2) 2024Q1 service and other revenue was 1 billion yuan, up 93.1% year on year and 22.1% month on month, mainly due to 2024Q1 technology R&D service revenue related to platform and software strategic technical cooperation with Volkswagen Group.
R&D and operating activities reduced costs and increased efficiency, and gross margin and net margin increased year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2024, Xiaopeng Motor's gross margin/net margin was 12.9%/-20.9%, with year-on-year changes of +11.2/+37.1pct, respectively, and +6.7/-10.6pct, respectively; R&D costs/sales, administrative and general expense ratios were 20.6%/21.2%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.5/-13.2pct, respectively, and +10.6/+6.4 pct, respectively. Looking at the breakdown, 1) 2024Q1 automotive business gross profit margin was 5.5%, +8.0 pct year on month, and +9.6 pct month on month, mainly due to cost reduction and improved model product portfolio; 2) 2024Q1 service and other profit margins were 53.9%, +24.3 pct year over year, and +15.7 pct month on month. The year-on-month increase was mainly due to the higher gross profit margin from technology research and development services described above.
Sales increased 20% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, and the sales network continued to be optimized.
In the first quarter of 2024, Xiaopeng Motor's total sales volume was 21,821 vehicles, an increase of 19.7% over the previous year. According to the company's second quarter guidelines, the delivery of vehicles in the second quarter of 2024 is expected to be 29,000-32,000 vehicles, an increase of about 25.0% to 37.9% year-on-year.
An EEA electronic and electrical architecture technology strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed with Volkswagen, and XOS 5.1.0 was released.
On April 17, 2023, Xiaopeng and Volkswagen signed an EEA electronic and electrical architecture technology strategic cooperation framework agreement. The two sides will jointly develop and integrate it into Volkswagen's CMP platform in China based on Xiaopeng's latest generation electronic and electrical architecture. The electronic and electrical architecture jointly developed by the two parties is expected to be applied to Volkswagen brand electric models manufactured in China from 2026. On May 20, 2024, Xiaopeng released XOS 5.1.0 to users through an OTA update, integrating AI-driven smart cockpit and XNGPADAS technology, including AI chauffeuring and xPlanner with a large model of rules and control based on neural networks.
Risk warning: Prices of raw materials are rising, and competition for automobile prices continues to intensify.