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Dell plummeted 18% after the market! AI server revenue reached a record high in the first quarter, but profit pressure failed to impress investors

wallstreetcn · May 31 07:10

5月30日周四美股盘后，已成立40年的个人电脑与服务器制造龙头戴尔科技发布了2025财年一季度财报，财报前一众华尔街主流投行纷纷上调其目标价。

尽管戴尔总营收和分项业务收入都超预期，AI服务器的积压订单高达38亿美元或季环比增长30%，但未能打动对AI寄予厚望的投资者，而且调整后EPS盈利下滑，盘后股价深跌近18%。

还有分析称，戴尔没有在财报声明中直接提供下季度业绩指引，也导致股价深跌，不过戴尔称将在财报电话会中提供指引。

周四戴尔收跌5.18%，止步六日连涨的十个月最长周期，昨日曾连续四个交易日创历史最高。今年以来戴尔股价翻倍、累涨超120%，远超同期标普500指数大盘的累涨11%。

有分析称，乘着AI“东风”，戴尔增长前景的持续改善将继续支撑股价徘徊新高，其估值低于其他热门AI科技股的事实，以及即将纳入标普500指数成分股的市场猜测，都将利好股价。

当前戴尔市盈率为预期收益的22倍，较科技股居多的纳斯达克100指数，以及英伟达、超微电脑和微软等其他AI公司都有明显折扣，不过已远高于戴尔的五年均值5.8倍并处于最高水平。

资管机构Deepwater Asset Management据此将戴尔称为“既是增长股，也是价值股”，相对于其他人工智能公司而言市盈率仍非常低，其个人电脑和服务器业务的增长潜力均被低估。

Q1营收在两年来首次同比增长，但调整后EPS盈利略逊于部分市场预期

市场高度关注戴尔拓展AI业务的能力，实际上，戴尔本份一季报全面超越市场预期。

季度收入同比增长6%至222亿美元，高于市场预期的216亿美元，也高于公司官方指引的210亿至220亿美元区间上限。有分析称，这是戴尔自2022年以来的首次营收同比增长。

调整后每股收益1.27美元，同比下降3%，但高于市场预期的1.23美元和公司官方指引的1.15美元。不过，也有分析师希望EPS为1.29美元。GAAP项下的每股收益同比增长67%至1.32美元。

同时，季度营业利润为9.2亿美元，非GAAP营业利润为14.7亿美元，同比分别下降14%和8%，而且后者逊于预期的14.8亿美元。经营活动产生的现金流为10亿美元。通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了11亿美元，季末的现金和投资总额为73亿美元。

AI优化服务器的出货量环比翻倍增长，推动服务器与网络收入增42%至新高

戴尔业务主要由客户解决方案集团（CSG）和基础设施解决方案集团（ISG）两部分组成。前者主体是个人电脑PC，细分为商业客户与消费者收入，后者分为服务器与网络、以及存储收入。

第一财季基础设施解决方案集团的营收同比增长22%至92亿美元，高于市场预期的90.6亿美元。其中，服务器与网络营收同比增长42%，至55亿美元创下历史新高。存储收入持平于38亿美元。

公司称，这主要是由于人工智能优化后的服务器与传统服务器的需求都很强劲：

人工智能优化服务器的出货量较上季度环比增超100%，即翻倍增长至17亿美元，此类服务器的订单积压量从1月底的29亿美元环比跃升30%至38亿美元。

不过有分析指出，虽然戴尔的AI服务器积压订单季度增速很快，但从盘后股价两位数大幅跳水可知，本次38亿美元积压订单未能打动对该公司AI技术寄予厚望的投资者。

同时，客户端解决方案集团的营收同比持平至120亿美元，但高于华尔街预期的117亿美元。其中商用客户PC的营收同比增长3%至102亿美元，消费者PC收入却下降15%至18亿美元。有分析称，这表明一些商业客户已经开始更换老化的PC硬件。

戴尔CFO指出，人工智能继续推动新的增长，财报证明了公司的执行力和提供强劲现金流的能力。过去12个月从运营中产生了79亿美元的现金流。

公司首席运营官强调：

“没有哪家公司比戴尔更有能力将人工智能引入企业。服务器和网络在第一财季创下收入新高，我们的人工智能优化服务器订单季度环比增长至26亿美元，出货量增超100%。”

华尔街怎么看？

财报发布前一天，美国银行证券分析师Wamsi Mohan将戴尔目标价从130美元高调上调至180美元，并重申“买入”评级，理由是戴尔被投资者低估且持有不足，公司具有人工智能等潜在增长催化剂，股价则因可能被纳入标普大盘而存在上行空间。

上周戴尔推出五款新型人工智能个人电脑（AI PC）、AI服务器、全闪存文件存储和网络架构，还宣布与英伟达扩大合作，通过AI工厂（Dell AI Factory）为企业构建超大规模的端到端系统。

美国银行据此认为，AI产品组合的扩大，以及人工智能服务器的需求、IBM大型机更新推动的存储需求和个人电脑在AI助力下的换机周期，都将支持戴尔在2025年都实现增长：

“戴尔受益于数据中心正在升级基础设施以支持生成式人工智能，以及AI PC的推出。广泛的产品组合、人工智能的优势、快于市场的增长趋势、持续的份额获取，以及未来几年的存储、PC与服务器配置向高端迁移带来的利润增长机会，可以抵消全球经济放缓和高金融杠杆等风险。”

摩根士丹利预计，今年人工智能个人电脑的普及率为2%，明年将大幅上升至16%，到2026年提高至28%。研究公司Canalys更为乐观，预计到2025年有1亿台配备人工智能的个人电脑，约占市场份额的40%，这将利好惠普和戴尔等PC制造商，昨日财报称惠普PC销量两年来首次增长。

Hunter Wolf Research指出，戴尔一直与主要GPU制造商合作推出针对AI优化的服务器，这可能改变其增长前景，例如，戴尔日前宣布将在服务器中提供英伟达下一代最强Blackwell GPU。

投行Evercore ISI前不久将戴尔目标价从140美元上调至165美元，称戴尔已经赢得特斯拉人工智能服务器建设的很大一部分业务，或带来25亿至30亿美元的收入机会，今年就可能实现。

投资管理公司Neuberger Berman称“戴尔正成为AI生态系统日益重要的战略供应商”，不过AI的强劲增长势头也可能随着宏观经济下滑而放缓，即对AI系统的需求仍然具有周期性。

编辑/ruby

After the US stock market on Thursday May 30, Dell Technology, a leading PC and server manufacturer that has been in business for 40 years, released its financial report for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year. Before the earnings report, mainstream Wall Street investment banks raised their target prices one after another.

Although Dell's total revenue and segmented business revenue both exceeded expectations, the backlog of AI server orders reached 3.8 billion US dollars or a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase, it failed to impress investors with high expectations for AI, and adjusted EPS profits declined, and the stock price plummeted by nearly 18% after the market.

Other analysts say that Dell did not directly provide performance guidance for the next quarter in the earnings statement, which also led to a sharp drop in stock prices, but Dell said it will provide guidance during the earnings call.

Dell closed down 5.18% on Thursday, stopping the longest ten-month cycle of six consecutive gains. Yesterday, it reached a record high for four consecutive trading days. Since this year, Dell's stock price has doubled and increased by more than 120%, far exceeding the 11% increase in the S&P 500 market during the same period.

According to some analysts, with the AI “Dongfeng”, the continued improvement in Dell's growth prospects will continue to support the stock price hovering at a new high. The fact that its valuation is lower than other popular AI technology stocks, and market speculation that it will soon be included in the S&P 500 index will benefit the stock price.

Currently, Dell's price-earnings ratio is 22 times the expected earnings. Compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index, which has more technology stocks, and other AI companies such as Nvidia, Ultramicomputer, and Microsoft, all have significant discounts, but it is already 5.8 times higher than Dell's five-year average and is at its highest level.

According to this, asset management agency Deepwater Asset Management refers to Dell as “both a growth stock and a value stock”. Compared to other artificial intelligence companies, the price-earnings ratio is still very low, and the growth potential of its PC and server business is underestimated.

Q1 revenue increased year over year for the first time in two years, but adjusted EPS profit was slightly lower than some market expectations

The market is paying close attention to Dell's ability to expand its AI business. In fact, Dell's current quarterly report has completely surpassed market expectations.

Quarterly revenue increased 6% year over year to US$22.2 billion, higher than market expectations of US$21.6 billion, and above the upper limit of the range of US$21 billion to US$22 billion according to the company's official guidelines. According to some analysts, this is Dell's first year-on-year increase in revenue since 2022.

Adjusted earnings per share were $1.27, down 3% year over year, but higher than market expectations of $1.23 and the company's official guidance of $1.15. However, there are also analysts who want EPS at $1.29. Earnings per share under GAAP increased 67% year over year to $1.32.

Meanwhile, quarterly operating profit was US$920 million, and non-GAAP operating profit was US$1.47 billion, down 14% and 8%, respectively, from the previous year, and the latter fell short of expectations of US$1.48 billion. Cash flow from operating activities was $1 billion. Shareholders were returned $1.1 billion through share repurchases and dividends, and total cash and investments at the end of the quarter were $7.3 billion.

Shipments of AI-optimized servers doubled month-on-month, driving server and network revenue to a new high of 42%

Dell's business consists mainly of two parts: Customer Solutions Group (CSG) and Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG). The former is mainly personal computers and PCs, which are subdivided into commercial customer and consumer revenue, while the latter is divided into server, network, and storage revenue.

Infrastructure Solutions Group's revenue for the first fiscal quarter increased 22% year over year to US$9.2 billion, higher than market expectations of US$9.06 billion. Among them, server and network revenue increased 42% year over year to a record high of 5.5 billion US dollars. Storage revenue remained flat at $3.8 billion.

According to the company, this is mainly due to strong demand for AI-optimized servers and traditional servers:

Shipments of AI-optimized servers increased by more than 100% from the previous quarter, or doubled to US$1.7 billion. The backlog of orders for such servers jumped 30% month-on-month to US$3.8 billion from US$2.9 billion at the end of January.

However, some analysts pointed out that although Dell's AI server backlog is growing rapidly quarterly, as can be seen from the sharp double-digit stock price dive after the market, the current $3.8 billion backlog order failed to impress investors who had high hopes for the company's AI technology.

Meanwhile, Client Solutions Group's revenue remained flat at $12 billion year over year, but higher than Wall Street's estimate of $11.7 billion. Among them, commercial customer PC revenue increased 3% year over year to 10.2 billion US dollars, while consumer PC revenue fell 15% to 1.8 billion US dollars. According to some analysts, this indicates that some commercial customers have begun to replace aging PC hardware.

The Dell CFO notes that artificial intelligence continues to drive new growth, and financial reports prove the company's ability to execute and provide strong cash flow. The past 12 months generated $7.9 billion in cash flow from operations.

The company's chief operating officer emphasized:

“No company is better equipped to bring artificial intelligence to the enterprise than Dell. Servers and networks hit record revenue in the first fiscal quarter. Our AI-optimized server orders grew to $2.6 billion quarter over quarter, and shipments increased by more than 100%.”

What do you think of Wall Street?

The day before the earnings report was released, Bank of America securities analyst Wamsi Mohan raised Dell's target price from $130 to $180 and reiterated the “buy” rating. The reason was that Dell was undervalued and underheld by investors. The company had potential growth catalysts such as artificial intelligence, and the stock price had room to rise due to possible inclusion in the S&P market.

Last week, Dell launched five new artificial intelligence personal computers (AI PCs), AI servers, all-flash file storage, and network architectures. It also announced an expansion of cooperation with Nvidia to build large-scale end-to-end systems for enterprises through the Dell AI Factory (Dell AI Factory).

Based on this, Bank of America believes that the expansion of the AI product portfolio, as well as the demand for artificial intelligence servers, storage requirements driven by IBM mainframe updates, and the switching cycle of personal computers assisted by AI will all support Dell's growth in 2025:

“Dell benefits from data centers being upgraded infrastructure to support generative artificial intelligence, as well as the introduction of AI PCs. A broad product portfolio, the advantages of artificial intelligence, faster growth than the market, continued share acquisition, and profit growth opportunities brought about by the migration of storage, PC and server configurations to the high-end in the next few years can offset risks such as a slowdown in the global economy and high financial leverage.”

Morgan Stanley expects the penetration rate of artificial intelligence PCs to be 2% this year, rise sharply to 16% next year, and increase to 28% by 2026. Research firm Canalys is more optimistic. It is estimated that by 2025 there will be 100 million personal computers equipped with artificial intelligence, accounting for about 40% of the market share. This will benefit PC manufacturers such as HP and Dell. Yesterday's earnings report said that HP PC sales will increase for the first time in two years.

Hunter Wolf Research notes that Dell has been collaborating with major GPU manufacturers to launch AI-optimized servers, which may change its growth prospects. For example, Dell recently announced that it will provide Nvidia's next generation of the most powerful Blackwell GPUs in servers.

Investment bank Evercore ISI recently raised Dell's target price from 140 US dollars to 165 US dollars, saying that Dell has won a large part of Tesla's artificial intelligence server construction business, or brought revenue opportunities of 2.5 billion to 3 billion US dollars, which may be realized this year.

Investment management company Neuberger Berman said “Dell is becoming an increasingly important strategic supplier to the AI ecosystem,” but the strong growth momentum of AI may also slow down with the macroeconomic downturn, that is, the demand for AI systems is still cyclical.

edit/ruby

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