Financial Services Association, May 30 (Editor Liu Rui) Trading stocks by watching cartoons doesn't sound very reliable, but if the magic associated with this cartoon has been tested many times in the past, is it worth paying attention to?

“South Park” is a comedy cartoon that has been a hit in the US for over 20 years. However, in the US stock investment community, a saying called the “South Park” curse has been quietly circulating until now: any stock name that appears in this cartoon will be sold off soon after.

Now, the magic of “South Park” has come to the concept of diet pills.

Has magic befallen weight loss pills?

The latest episode of “South Park: The End of Obesity” aired last week tells the story of slimming pills that have recently become increasingly popular — simeglutide and tiverpotide.

In the episode, “South Park”'s obese protagonist Eric Cartman (Eric Cartman) tries to get access to these two popular weight loss pills. These two diet pills are popular products owned by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, respectively.

If history is used as a reference, this may mean that the boom in diet medicine stocks will peak at least in the short term.

An analysis by market research firm Spectra Markets found that when an American listed company appears in one episode of “South Park,” it often indicates that the company's stock will peak in the short term.

Going back in history, the listed companies that previously appeared in “South Park” did not perform well in most stock markets over the next year, such as marijuana companies MedMen and TilRay, social media giants Twitter and Meta platforms, and consumer companies Starbucks and Walmart.

Spectra Markets President Brent Donnelly (Brent Donnelly) said, “Every time a stock name appears in the “South Park” episode, the median share price performance of these stocks over the next year will lag 7% behind the S&P 500 index.”

What's the mystery behind it?

The mystery behind the “South Park” curse is that if a stock or company's product becomes the topic of the “South Park” series, it means that the public popularity of the stock or its product may have peaked, and this usually means that its potential upside has been digested early in the short term, which is a sign that the stock price is peaking.

Donnelly stated:

“South Park” has a history of more than 20 years capturing the spirit of the cultural zeitgeist. “Undoubtedly, any topic that is ridiculed in “South Park” means that it has been fully digested by the market... Obviously, anything performed (in “South Park”) is already well known, which means that there is a risk that they will return to the average after outperforming the market by a large margin before.”

As investors are optimistic that the GLP-1 diet pills market could reach 100 billion US dollars in the future, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly's stock prices have performed well in the past two years.

Since the beginning of 2023, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's stock prices have increased cumulatively by 121% and 97% respectively, far exceeding the 40% increase in the S&P 500 index during the same period.

“Now is a good time to reduce the share of GLP-1 holdings; everything is reflected in the price,” Donnelly concluded.