资产负债表具备优化空间，有望助力公司未来盈利能力改善。公司近年来自营业务收入波动较大，公司逐步优化配置结构，权益类自营规模占比从2018 年的19.2%降至2023 年的5.0%，预计未来对公司业绩影响有望减小，同时为固收类资产扩表腾挪空间。公司2023 年末财务杠杆、投资杠杆为3.43、1.72，低于行业平均水平。与净资产规模相近的上市券商以及头部券商相比，公司投资杠杆具备较大的提升空间。若公司未来提高杠杆扩表，有望助力盈利能力改善。The only provincial brokerage license in Shandong Province, with strong shareholder support and collaboration. The company is actively integrated into local financial development, successively holding Sino-Thai Futures and merging Tiantong Securities, and has experience in integrating regional financial resources.
In 2020, the company was directly managed by the provincial committee, and in July 2022, the company completed the change of controlling shareholder. The current controlling shareholder Zao Mining Group and the parent companies of the major shareholder Express Investment are Shanneng Group and Hi-Speed Group, respectively, all of which are important key enterprises in Shandong Province. Strong shareholder backgrounds enhance the company's ability to integrate resources and develop markets. In 2023, the company's equity, IPO, and bond underwriting market share in Shandong Province reached 16.51%, 21.04%, and 14.93% respectively, ranking 1st, 1st, and 2nd in the province, respectively, which is a significant increase over previous years.
It also shows that 10,000 companies have improved their asset management layout, and the public offering business is catching up with strong momentum. In February 2023, the company increased its shareholding ratio in 10,000 funds and achieved a merger. Wanjia Fund has caught up strongly in recent years. At the end of 2023, the size of the non-monetary fund reached 157.7 billion yuan, and the ranking rose from 55 in 2015 to 27th; net profit to mother in 2023 was 360 million yuan, and the CAGR reached 23.9% in 2015-2023. After the company achieves a controlling interest, it is expected to enhance the synergy of wealth and asset management businesses. China and Thailand Asset Management obtained a public offering license at the end of 2017. At the end of 2023, the size of non-monetary funds and equity funds ranked 5th and 2nd in the asset management of brokerage firms with public offering licenses, respectively, and they are also at the forefront of the industry.
The balance sheet has room for optimization, which is expected to help improve the company's profitability in the future. The company's self-operating revenue has fluctuated greatly in recent years. The company has gradually optimized its allocation structure, and the share of equity self-employment fell from 19.2% in 2018 to 5.0% in 2023. It is expected that the impact on the company's performance will decrease in the future, while freeing up space for the expansion of fixed income assets. The company's financial leverage and investment leverage at the end of 2023 were 3.43 and 1.72, which is lower than the industry average. Compared with listed brokerage firms and leading brokerage firms with similar net assets, the company's investment leverage has more room for improvement. If the company increases leverage and expands the table in the future, it is expected to help improve profitability.
Investment advice: We expect the company's operating income in 2024-2026 to be 130.34, 141.64, and 15.725 billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother will be 21.43, 25.77, and 3.150 billion yuan, respectively; +19.09%, +20.25%, and +22.21% year-on-year respectively; ROE will be 5.39%, 6.43%, and 7.68%, respectively; the PB corresponding to the current stock price is 1.10, 1.08, and 1.05, respectively times. Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given.
Risk warning: The capital market fluctuates greatly; trading activity in the stock market has declined sharply; regulatory policies have exceeded expectations and become stricter.
