Zhixun Finance APP has learned that Everbright Securities has released a research report stating that electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) are expected to become the main aircraft type for urban air transport due to their low carbon, low cost, and intelligent characteristics. The commercial models of eVTOL mainly belong to ToG and ToB, with both technological and manufacturing attributes. Global eVTOL start-ups are raising funds rapidly, and models will be heavily launched for use from 2024 to 2026. The industry will shift from research and development to large-scale commercial operation. Due to the significant overlap in the supply chain with new energy vehicles, related domestic industrial chains are expected to benefit. It is recommended to focus on the direction of battery technologies such as solid-state/halogen solid-state and high-voltage fast charging; manufacturers of high-power density motors and eVTOL-specific aviation powerhouses, as well as eVTOL vehicle manufacturers.
The main points of view of Everbright Securities are as follows:
eVTOL Configuration: China favors the composite wing, and the tilt-rotor configuration is the long-term direction.
The multi-rotor type can be seen in models such as EHang EH216-S, and the composite wing type is expected to be the preferred solution during the transition period. In the future, with the growth of long-distance transportation demand, the tilt-rotor/duct will become the long-term direction.
Pure electric and hybrid eVTOLs run parallel, and solid-state batteries are urgently needed.
Everbright Securities pointed out that due to the strong supply chain and cost reduction of power and energy storage batteries, most eVTOL models use mature and high-density lithium batteries. Compared with pure electric eVTOL, eVTOL using oil-electric hybrid power can significantly improve performance under the current battery energy density constraints. Energy density, charge/discharge performance, safety, and thermal management performance are the core, and the 1-2-year battery replacement cycle may drive the growth of lithium demand. Currently, eVTOL batteries are mainly liquid and semi-solid batteries that can be mass-produced, and new technologies such as solid-state batteries, prelithiation, and silicon negative electrodes are expected to accelerate.
The barrier for motor and electronic control is high, and overseas manufacturers are leading the way. Innovation in motor technology has driven the upgrading of new material processes.
The eVTOL motor mainly uses permanent magnet technology, and the power density and torque density of the axial magnetic flux motor have advantages. The innovation of motor technology lies in structural design, thermal management, advanced materials and processes, high-strength, high-insulation PEEK stator framework materials, high-strength, high-thermal conductivity epoxy resin encapsulation filling materials, SMC composite materials, amorphous alloys, directional silicon steel fixed rotor cores, carbon fiber fixed rotor winding processes, etc. are expected to benefit. The head host manufacturers independently develop motor and electronic controls, and third-party motor suppliers include EMRAX, Saifeng, MagniX, Rolls-Royce and other well-known overseas aviation motor manufacturers, and domestic motor suppliers such as Wolong Electric Drive, Tianjin Songzheng, and Blue Ocean Huateng have also laid out.
Economic: Short-term depends on large-scale production, long-term depends on operational capabilities.
The costs of the power and propulsion systems of eVTOLs account for 50%, and the airframe, avionics, and flight control systems account for 20%-25% respectively; infrastructure, personnel training, etc. account for the main part of fixed costs, including maintenance, depreciation, battery replacement and other variable costs. In the early stage of eVTOL industrialization, it is necessary to rely on large-scale and rapid cost reduction, but cost reduction of more than 90% is required to achieve the economic efficiency of ground transportation vehicles. In the long term, eVTOL will become a heavily operated business, and sensitivity to cost reduction is lower than that to passengers carried and average ticket price per mile. Especially when lowering the average ticket price per seat per mile, economic efficiency will be significantly improved.
Investment advice
(1) The development of eVTOLs has a long-term demand for battery performance upgrades. It is recommended to focus on the direction of battery technologies such as solid-state/halogen solid-state and high-voltage fast charging, and to pay attention to: Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), Gotion High-Tech (002074.SZ), Jiangsu Azure Corporation (002245.SZ), etc.
(2) The supporting motors for eVTOLs need to meet technical indicators such as high-power density. Pay attention to high-power density motor and eVTOL-specific aviation motor manufacturers, and suggest focusing on: Wolong Electric Drive (600580.SH), Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery (001696.SZ), Shenzhen V&T Technologies (300484.SZ), etc.
(3) Some aircraft manufacturers, automakers, and start-up companies have begun to lay out in the eVTOL field. Pay attention to eVTOL vehicle manufacturers, and it is recommended to focus on Wanfeng Auto Holding Group (002085.SZ).
Risk warning: the development of lithium-ion battery technology is not as expected; eVTOL airworthiness risks have not met standards; policy support is not as expected; the market's acceptance of the eVTOL concept is lower than expected.