Author：Zhang Qiyao，Zhang Junxiao
Source: Yao Wang's future
Core views
1. Overall configuration:MSCI expansion is imminent, and the large inflow of foreign capital continues
In the early morning of November 8, Beijing time, the results of the MSCI third quarter review were announced. MSCI will welcome the last expansion within the next year. This expansion is the third step in MSCI's “three-step” plan to expand during the year. 204 Chinese A shares will be added to the MSCI China Index, of which 189 are mid-cap stocks. This expansion will officially take effect after the market closes on November 26. After the expansion takes effect, the A-share inclusion factor will increase from 15% to 20%.As the largest single expansion in MSCI history approaches, the large inflow of capital from the north continues. The cumulative net inflow in the first two weeks of November has already exceeded 20 billion yuan. At the same time, based on previous expansion experience, the day of entry into force on November 26 will also usher in a concentrated entry of passive capital, and the passive capital of this round of expansion will also reach a new high in history, so the scale of net inflows in a single day is also expected to reach a new high.On November 9, the CPI and PPI data for October were released. The CPI increase further expanded to 3.8% year on year, while PPI continued to decline year on year, and the “scissor gap” between CPI and PPI widened further.
Last week, China Stock Connect had a cumulative inflow of 13.553 billion yuan, and Hong Kong Stock Connect had a cumulative inflow of 2,701 billion yuan. Last week, main board positions declined slightly, and SME and GEM positions rebounded slightly. The main board, small and medium board, and GEM holdings were 81.01%, 12.65%, and 6.33%, respectively.
2,Industry allocation: Significant increase in electronics and home appliances stocks, with non-banking and real estate declining positions leading
Last week, capital from going north increased sharply in electronics and home appliances, while non-banks and real estate reduced their holdings mostly.According to our estimates, the net inflows of home appliances, electronics, and banking were the highest last week, with net inflows of $3,312 billion, $2,735 billion, and $1,509 billion, respectively;Net outflows from real estate, leisure and agriculture ranked first, with -900 million, -223 million, and -142 million respectively.In terms of style, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300/GEM Index rebounded slightly compared to last week. The consumer sector collectively rose. Household appliances/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, food and drink/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and pharmaceutical/biotechnology/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 all showed slight rebounds.
3.Individual stock allocation:Wuliangye had the highest inflow, while Yanghe shares had the majority of outflows
In terms of individual stocks, liquor's leading positions were divided, while at the same time concentrating on increasing stocks of home appliances and reducing holdings in financial real estate.The share of the market value of the top 20 heavyweight stocks in the market value of total holdings fell slightly by 0.20% last week to 51.90%.Last Friday, the inflow of grain liquid was the highest, with a net inflow of 1,125 billion yuan, while Yanghe shares had the highest outflow, with a net outflow of 795 million yuan. The liquor sector saw the largest diversification of capital going north;At the same time, capital flowed out of the financial real estate sector by concentrating capital on home appliances. Among them, Midea Group, Qingdao Haier, and Gree Electric had net inflows of 1,069 million yuan, 991 million yuan, and 863 million yuan respectively, while Poly Real Estate, Huatai Securities, Ping An Bank, and Vanke had net outflows of 463 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 264 million yuan 228 million yuan respectively.
Risk warning
1. Increased volatility in overseas markets;2. Risk of exchange rate depreciation;3. MSCI's expansion or entry into wealth falls short of expectations.