Source: Kigaku Club

1. Who is he? Long term profiteers!

Stanley Crowe entered Wall Street, the global financial center in 1960. He has been trading commodity futures in the futures market during his 33 years on Wall Street and has accumulated a great deal of experience. In the early 1970s commodity futures boom, $18,000 was used to make a profit of $1 million. Years passed, wealth accumulated, and Stanley Crow took the millions of dollars he had collected on Wall Street to stay away from this competitive market, roam the world, and enjoy his life alone.

During his 5-year journey, Stanley Crowe devoted himself to studying economic theory, finance, and investment theory, and published 5 monographs, the most famous of which was “Crowe Talks on Investment Strategies”.

After 1981, Stanley Crowe returned to Wall Street and gradually turned his attention to Asia because he believed that the 21st century would be Asia's financial century.

Today's market is different from Crowe's heyday: new financial instruments are constantly emerging and maturing; computer trading systems are widely used; and various new theories and technologies have appeared in the market. Kro Baodao is not old. He continues to learn new experiences and new technology, strives to keep up with the market, and has begun a brand-new stage in his trading career.

His successful experience with futures investing first emphasized: the futures market is like a pristine forest in Africa; the most important thing is to survive. If the trend is wrong, they immediately cut the position and exit. Risk control and restraint are the key to successful futures investing. Friends who participate in futures trading must always keep in mind: the market is always right!

He believes that everyone should have their own market philosophy or investment strategy, and everyone should have tools or ideas to control risk. His tools or ideas for effectively managing risk are known as Murphy's Law.

The core meaning of Murphy's Law is: when you're worried that things will happen in a bad direction for you, the results are likely to be worse than you feared.

Crowe's most famous quote: Profit can only take care of itself if he always thinks about losses! Crowe's philosophy mainly relies on technical methods in its implementation. His motto is: KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) -- Pursue simplicity.

Investment strategies and theories: Profits are long-term; losses are short-term. He applied technology in many but very simple ways. Sometimes it was so simple that he only used one moving average.

Specific approach: Investments that pursue long-term trends, buy on the rise and sell on the downside.

Views on investment instruments: Reviewing long-term charts (weeks, months) is very useful. Observing long-term trends gave Crowe a more balanced and comprehensive understanding of market activity.

2. Superman Stanley ▪️ Crowe, a hundred ninja becomes gold

Many years ago, a young man who is just over 30 years old borrowed 10,000 US dollars and bought 3 exchange seats (there is no mistake here; in the sixties, 10,000 US dollars could buy 3 member seats, which were only revised later) and started his own clearing company. He was in a hurry to establish a reputation and let everyone know that he is a very good analyst and broker, so he used patience and waited until “almost 100%” of success before investing his clients' and friends' money.

That is the sugar market. He checked his hypothesis over and over again, and did his best to study the market and study all the graphics, regardless of past or present graphics, always looking over and over again. At the same time, I also learned a lot of sugar handling techniques from my peers. Then, when he was finally satisfied and thought this was the opportunity he had been waiting for, he began work, including writing investment analysis reports and market updates, which were widely promoted through advertisements, market seminars, and personal contacts.

He worked tirelessly, working 12 to 14 hours a day -- the results were finally showing. He accumulated huge sugar positions for his customers and himself. The average price was around 2.00 cents/pound. Look closely -- 2.00 cents/lb. This young man is very good at calculating: the cost of a sackcloth bag alone plus the labor to fill it exceeds the value of the sugar in the bag. If he bought it at such a low price, how could he pay for it? However, he did not calculate the “Mofei Index”, and the market did not rise as he had anticipated; instead, it continued to decline... all the way down to 1.33 cents/lb!

” I watched this kind of thing happen, and I keep getting deposit recovery notices that further confirm the fact that the market has collapsed, but I still think this incident is incredible.

I lost about one-third of my capital during this small defeat process, but I still believe that the market is at a historic bottom, and after seeing professional bears run out, the number of open positions has been greatly reduced. In addition, after checking long-term and seasonal graphics to find possible signs of a long-term trend, I am more confident that the bullish trend will eventually come. While the market continues to level out, we are still holding on to positions for two years. As long as we don't cut our positions, we haven't lost any money; the only damage is the monthly exchange cost of each futures due. ”

Finally, rescuers finally arrived. Most markets finally arrived in 1969. The market broke through a long period of consolidation and began to rise. The bullish market continued for five years, and reached a peak of 66 cents/pound in 1974, and rich profits followed. What an addicting trip it was! It's also a great lesson, telling us, “Be patient, be disciplined, and take a long view when operating.”

After experiencing a thrilling wave of sugar prices, in May 1974, American wheat also ended its decline and bottomed out at around 350 cents. For several days in a row, the volume rose by nearly 40 cents (20 cents off), then declined. Continuing along the way, almost all of the increase was recovered, and the volume gradually shrank. Stanley Crow looked over the wheat chart again for nearly ten years. His experience with sugar during the previous operation period told him that the decisive moment had arrived again.

Start buying in bulk at around 360 cents, for yourself and for the customer. From June to July, wheat began to rise sharply, and increased during the two pullbacks of 385 cents and 440 cents. From 360 cents to 490 cents, the floating profit is already quite rich. The TV station interviewed him: “Russia is buying wheat, do you know any inside information?” Stanley Crowe answered, “I had no idea that Russia was buying it, but the chart tells me that someone is buying it. I don't know who, but I know it's trying hard to buy it.”

However, holding a huge position at this point made Stanley Crowe feel uneasy. In order to avoid panicking and closing his position when the price pulls back, he decided to go abroad to reduce the pressure on him in the market. So in August and September, he and his wife flew to Switzerland and rented a farmhouse in the suburbs, isolated from the world, and didn't answer phone calls or read product information in newspapers. While in Switzerland, the price of wheat fluctuated and fell, reaching a maximum of 558 cents, and floating profits increased by hundreds of thousands of dollars.

III. Stanley Crow's Patience, Discipline, and Long-Term Vision

After returning to New York for two weeks, Stanley Crow couldn't resist the temptation to feel the pulse of the market, and his mood began to get nervous again, so he decided to take a boat trip to Brock Island and Newport for two weeks.

After returning to New York again, he felt that something was wrong with the market. On the morning of December 9, 1974, the profit was supposed to rise 3-4 cents, but the opening fell by 2 cents, and the price could not rise with the Lido news. Stanley Crow felt that the time had come for the world to enjoy a feast. He called his agent to be careful and slowly close his position. Within a few hours, all 2.5 million handfuls of wheat appeared on the market, making a total profit of more than 1.3 million US dollars (back in the 70s, which is equivalent to tens of millions of dollars now).

Seven weeks later, the market price fell to a dollar. This was the climax of Stanley Crowe's record of winning for several months: his own personal account rose from $18,000 to more than 1 million, and the capital of partner investors who joined one after another also rose from $644,000 to $2.5 million. At noon on the day they finished their warehouse, Stanley Crowe gave his wife a surprise: a very luxurious Rolls Royce. Then they closed their New York office, packed up their luggage, and disappeared for five years.

After listening to the story of Stanley Crow above, I was really impressed. Looking at the chart, Stanley Crowe's principle of entering and leaving the market is in line with the successful experience mentioned above: the 50% pullback pyramid increases, “sitting” to make money, and even doesn't hesitate to use the ostrich policy, so it's not bothersome to lose sight of it.

But some people want to ask: Why doesn't Stanley Crow close the position at the highest price? The highest and lowest prices in this situation are unpredictable. Without such adherence to principles (closing positions after breaking a 50% pullback) and patience, and blindly trying to figure it out, you wouldn't be able to make more huge profits from the thrilling and absurdly high prices (sugar prices have doubled 33 times).

IV. Stanley Crow talks about long-term investments

Stanley Crowe said that as medium- to long-term investors, they should use long-term analysis tools — weekly and monthly charts, seasonal research, and a good technical analysis system that focuses on the long term, such as moving averages, and the necessary patience and discipline.

Among the operators who can continue to make a lot of money are those who establish long-term positions. They tend to follow the** operation. In trading, we have always adhered to a dual strategy: being a long-term trader on profitable positions and a short-term trader on opposite positions.

If the market moves in a favorable direction (your position is in line with the current trend), your trading position is favorable, and you can hold the position for as long as possible. However, if you determine that your position is contrary to the current trend and your losses are increasing, you should exit the market early. How long should a favorable position be held? As long as it can be, it will be as long as possible.

In most markets you enter, important long-term charts are very useful. A long-term chart is a weekly or even monthly bar chart. Every trader must test his own technical methods and develop the corresponding indicators and formulas that best suit their trading goals and trading style. Some traders use a simple and direct method of identifying long-term trends, that is, comparing a 50-day simple moving average with a daily closing price bar chart.

This method is used as follows:

(1) Conditions showing an upward trend:

① The price is higher than the moving average;

② The line is inclined upward.

(2) Conditions showing a downward trend:

① The price is below the moving average;

② The line is sloping downward. The advantage of this approach is that it is objective and completely unbiased. As a mathematical method, it's simple and straightforward. However, the horizontal market shows an undirected moving average, which is roughly equal to the price line.

You must be bold and decisive when entering the warehouse for the first time. The optimal amount should be at least 70% of the total warehouse, and then continue to increase in a pyramid style. Also, I saw one thing: they must abide by discipline. People who play for a long time must have patience. The so-called perseverance is golden; believe in your own beliefs! Trust your trading system!

How to spend a long time holding positions is a boring time and the key to being able to hold long-term positions. The “ostrich policy” used by Stanley Crow is a good way to avoid making mistakes in judgment and easily settling positions when tension and pressure are the most volatile in the middle of the market.

What should operators do -- look at commodity charts. In addition to every day, they also need to study historical seasonal price trends over a long period of time, and come up with a reliable old friend -- a long-term trading system. Rigorous and objective trend tracking and analysis, combined with believing and adhering to the predictions obtained from the analysis, is the best way to enter and exit the market. A down-to-earth analysis and prediction of market trends, along with a time-tested strategy, are absolutely essential elements.

The only thing that distinguishes winners from losers is whether they can apply first-class strategies and tactics, and whether they can persevere and abide by discipline. Finally, while a consistent and actionable strategy is clearly a requirement for successful operations, there are three other essential traits: discipline, discipline, discipline.

5. Stanley Crow's classic futures motto

Stanley Kroll (StanleyKroll) is a famous American futures expert who entered the global financial center Wall Street in 1960. During his 33 years on Wall Street, he has been trading commodity futures in the futures market and has accumulated a great deal of experience.

In the early 1970s commodity futures boom, using $18,000 to make a profit of $1 million, and later made millions of dollars, Stanley Crow took the tens of millions of dollars he had collected on Wall Street to stay away from this competitive market, roam the world, and enjoy his life alone. After 1981, he returned to Wall Street and gradually turned his attention to Asia.

His successful experience with futures investing first emphasized: the futures market is like a pristine forest in Africa; the most important thing is to survive. If the trend is wrong, they immediately cut the position and exit.

Risk control and restraint are the key to successful futures investment... The core meaning of Murphy's Law is: when you're worried that things will happen in a bad direction for you, the results are likely to be worse than you feared.

Crowe's most famous quote: Profit can only take care of itself if he always thinks about losses! Crowe's philosophy mainly relies on technical methods in its implementation. His motto is: KISS (KeepItSimple, Stupid) — Pursue simplicity.

His investment strategy and theory is “profit is long-term; loss is short-term.” He applied technology in many but very simple ways. Sometimes it was so simple that he only used one moving average. In terms of investment instruments, Crowe believes that it is very useful to review long-term charts (weeks, months).

6. Some excellent views of Stanley Crow

1. The futures market is like a pristine forest in Africa; the most important thing is to survive.

2. Principles of technical analysis: Aim for simplicity, be simple to the point where you don't need to use your brain, and don't be superstitious about complicated technical analysis methods.

3. The system you are preparing to use must pass the test of time and actual combat.

4. Have confidence in the system you have set, not based on personal emotions, prejudice, or wishful thinking; you want to surpass and improve it.

5. You must be patient and wait for the operation signal from the system outside the market. Once the position is set up, you must be patient to hold the position until the system sends a reversal signal.

6. You must strictly abide by the principles and operate according to the signals indicated by the system.

7. Let go into the market only when the market shows a strong trend.

8. Market entry point: When consolidation breaks through, when the trend reverses, and when there is a general rebound or rebound of 45% to 55%.

9. If the trend is wrong, cut the position immediately.

10. When the trend analysis is correct, the pyramid is increased.

11. Money is earned by “sitting”; it is not earned by operation; positions are only closed when judging a trend reverses using objective methods.

12. How to spend the boring time of holding long-term positions is also the key to being able to hold long-term positions. If necessary, an “ostrich policy” can be used to avoid the tension caused by the most intense market fluctuations in the middle of the market.

13. The risks and benefits included in the price are a possibility, not something that can definitely be achieved.

We can use technical tools to determine the probability that this might happen, but we can't say that it will happen; that's why we stop losing. Anyone who is absolutely spoiled in the futures market is either an immortal, a liar, or an outsider.

14. Price is the only thing to consider when trading. I believe that only eyes and hands should be used to trade, preferably only eyes and hands. Look at the price with your eyes. Knock on the keyboard with your hands to block your ears and stop thinking.

The financial market is a place full of rumors. There are more crooks than the Mafia, and I'm afraid you can't find out what's real and what's fake even if you invite them to Holmes. However, there is one tool that can most objectively and quickly and completely reflect the actual situation, and that is the price, so arguing that price is the only factor we consider.

15. You can only trade on your views on the market. Once a person predicts things, vanity is reflected in it, making it difficult for him to accept anything different from his predictions during the trading process.

However, real wealth is achieved through smart withdrawals, as it allows traders to stop losses and roll over profits. After all, people make money by discovering themselves, realizing their potential, and keeping pace with the market

16. When the market rebound or market consolidation appeared, people began to hesitate, and most of the transactions were also flustered. Short-term attacks began to occur frequently, changing hands frequently, and lost not only direction, but also the self.

This self is faith, and its trading system! In the end, this kind of loss often keeps traders from going any further. As long as you actually follow the signals and follow the rules, you will inadvertently discover that trading was not that difficult.

17. If you stick to a practice, study it thoroughly, and control your mentality, you can succeed.

18. Most investors don't know; there are only a few days a month where they can make a lot of money. The rest of the time, if you don't get bogged down, just do your part. Remember to keep your account intact at all times and wait for the big market to hit,

19. Trading is like using troops. If you have five points, you won't fight, and if you have seven points, you won't fight. You have to wait until you have a good grasp and try your best, but the battle changes rapidly. Where can you be sure?

20. Technical analysis is a trader's behavioral discipline; it is mainly not forecasting. It helps you identify and adapt to trends. Do what you have to do; stop when you have to.

21. In strong markets, the buying points and selling points in technical indicators are not accurate; in weak markets, the selling points and buying points in technical indicators are not accurate.

22. “Follow the trend” positions may be very profitable, so don't “abandon the ship” easily. In the process, many temptations may occur, luring you to see small fluctuations and rush to buck the trend and steal your hat. Unless you're familiar with this method and have set a stop-loss point, don't go in and out at will.

23. Human investment is judged based on price fluctuations, but if people's hearts fluctuate faster and larger than prices, they lose their most valuable strength, so it's easy to misjudge trends. Of course, it's also easier to reverse one's established investment plans time and time again, and fall into the dilemma of chasing up and falling.

7. Stanley Crow's description of patience

1. The market is like a great wealth dispenser. It doesn't take into account the size of anyone's capital; it only rewards people who are patient and disciplined.

2. Patience and discipline are necessary qualities, because traders who know and can use the timing of entry and exit accurately can accumulate profits even if their principal amount is small.

3. Among the various essential personality qualities, patience and discipline can be said to be difficult brother to brother; patience and discipline are very important in any serious trading situation.

4. You must be patient, strictly disciplined, and far-sighted during speculative transactions.

5. I have seen successful position-oriented traders who patiently held positions for 2 years and continued to exchange contracts that expire quickly for more months throughout this period.

6. You're right, there are traps, but these traps are places where traders must have and use strong patience and discipline to get through. As long as the market trend is still beneficial to them, or until the technical system shows no signs of reversal, traders must be very patient and strictly disciplined to hold positions.

7. You don't have to be excellent to earn money from beginning to end — just be patient and strict with discipline.

8. The main reason that hampers the success of long-term transactions is feeling monotonous and undisciplined. Traders learn how to patiently sit in a profitable position, and only then have a chance to make a lot of money.

9. Unfortunately, speculators are most likely to show patience and perseverance only when they hold positions that are against the trend (losing money). Of course, they also have to pay a high price for this.

10. I have pointed out again and again that long-term trends, especially downward trends, will not reverse anytime soon.

They often last for an unbearable period of time, accompanied by innumerable false signals, causing many traders to be scrambled. You must exercise patience and discipline, and wait for your technical indicators or systems to tell you that a reversal has occurred before jumping on the emerging trend.

11. Countless people want to take the lead and bottom in a market with obvious trends. The money they lose is simply out of proportion to the money they can reasonably expect to earn — losing 15,000 yuan or more per contract.

Also, as you can imagine, once you lose that much, when the market signals the next trend, this is a real signal, and people with serious losses won't have much interest.

But what would happen if instead of losing a few thousand yuan per hand, but less than 1,000 yuan? He can wait patiently for a signal from a system or other technical method.

He can risk another 1,000 yuan in his new position. If his system or technical method works, then sooner or later he will make a lot of money on his positions, without having to count the small money he lost before.

Among the 12 and 21 markets, 14% upward trend, 48% downward trend, 38% horizontal consolidation — under these circumstances, it's really not time for traders to just go long. In fact, in this case, a well-thought-out strategy should be to not exceed 15% to 25% of the portfolio.

However, this logical market strategy must be accompanied by patience, so that your trading positions can fully grow in line with the overall trend. The reason why well-known traders are able to make big profits is that they can patiently hold positions that follow the trend.

But patience is clearly a double-edged sword. Patiently holding a position that bucked the trend and lost money was tantamount to buying a ticket that wasn't a huge loss. Almost every trader can attest to this truth.

13. He looks like a master. He waits very patiently, and his intuition, which has gone through many refinements, tells him that every time he runs out of energy, the basic bullish trend will once again show strength. At this time, and only then, will he jump up — “buy 50 lots... buy 100 lots... buy 150 lots.”

14. Knowing when not to trade, being very patient and not entering the market until the right time — is one of the toughest challenges traders face.

15. Even if you are trading in the direction of the trend, you should be more disciplined and patient during the inevitable price pullback (rebound) period. The pullback (rebound) is caused by live traders and commercial companies to wash out unmotivated holders in order to create more wealth for themselves.

16. In fact, in the history of futures trading, most of them are “smart” traders who have entered the market at the wrong head and bottom, leaving no bones left. They sell when they see a high and buy when they see a low price. The reason is simple: they are impatient, lack rationality when doing analysis, and the market rises and falls too much, too fast.

17. Losses in market washing are an inevitable part of trading with the trend. Traders must be patient and have strong financial resources to overcome a series of washing losses, wait for the big market to arrive, and make a big profit.

18. The system keeps you coming in and out all the time, and when losses occur, you really need to be very patient and disciplined to do what the system says. However, our experience shows that once you stick to a set of workable trend tracking methods and follow its results, it's much better than if you repeatedly doubt its ability and keep looking for ways to “improve” it.

19. You must be patient and wait for a trading signal outside the market. Once you have opened a position, you must be just as patient and hold on until a reversal signal appears.

20. I also need to know myself more — I'm impatient, undisciplined, and sometimes foolish, mistaken for being very capable, capable of independent thinking, and not blindly following other people's systems.

21. Human greed and fear causes most speculators to make small money when they make money and lose big money when they lose money. This is a common problem for some traders. Fortunately, the system helps traders control these problems, focus their attention on disciplined, strategic, and practical speculation methods, and achieve profits. The system teaches patience, consistency, change, and discipline.

22. A trading system is a tool, and like most tools, there are good tools as well as ordinary tools. The trading system is certainly not the last answer to making regular profits in the market, but choosing the right system can be of great help to your entire trading. But — this is a huge “but” — its benefits are directly proportional to the patience and lack of discipline you show when using it.

Editor/jayden