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US stock outlook | The Fed's hawkish expectations are further pressuring interest rate cuts, and the three major indices are collectively weakening; Nvidia rose nearly 1% before the market, and the opening is expected to reach a new high

Futu News · May 29 19:54

全球宏观

周三盘前，三大期指集体走弱

隔夜，2026年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，美联储的政策立场是限制性的，但联储决策者尚未完全排除进一步加息的可能性。

瑞银3个月内两度上调美股目标价：年内还能再涨6%

瑞银发布报告称，随着美国经济衰退风险缩小，美国企业盈利增长超出预期，促使该行再次上调标普500指数的年终目标至5600点（此前为5400点），这意味着较当前5300点左右水平再上涨5.6%。今年2月，瑞银已经上调过一次标普500指数的目标点位，而此次再度上调，表明瑞银对于美股前景的强劲信心。

美国经济强劲表象下的暗雷！美联储官员警告：消费者违约率大幅上升

尽管美国经济数据似乎表明美国经济增速正在强劲反弹，华尔街对于美国经济衰退的担忧也越来越少，但最新数据显示，2024年第一季度的消费者违约率大幅上升，这可能是埋藏在美国经济繁华表象下的一颗暗雷。芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁古尔斯比强调，消费者违约率是目前最令人担忧的经济指标之一。

疲软日元或引通胀风暴！日银官员暗示可能提早动用加息之剑

日本央行政策委员会审议委员安达诚司表示，如果日元大幅下跌推升了通胀，或者导致公众对未来物价的看法超出预期，该行就可能会采取加息的行动。安达诚司表示，虽然日本经济现在不一定算得上强劲，但随着家庭开始受益于工资上涨，另随着海外出现复苏迹象，消费、出口和资本支出可能会持续复苏。

金油铜牛市还没到头！瑞银：大宗商品未来6至12个月能再涨10%

瑞银分析师团队指出，大宗商品价格仍有进一步上涨的空间，石油和铜的需求上升和供应短缺加剧，可能会在未来6至12个月内为价格提供良好支撑。由瑞银编制的大宗商品指数瑞银CMCI综合指数今年迄今已上涨近11%，该行预计，未来6至12个月该大宗商品指数还将再上涨10%。

热点要闻

周三盘前，明星科技股多数下跌

英伟达涨势远未结束！分析师：AI护城河坚不可摧，料股价再涨两倍多

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$市值已经逼近苹果，达到2.8万亿美元，成为全球市值第三大的公司。在I/O Fund科技分析师贝丝•金丁看来，英伟达凭借其坚不可摧的护城河，其股价将在2030年前比目前水平飙升258%，市值将达到10万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达盘前小幅上扬。

今年，特斯拉股东大会要决定两件大事

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$将于6月13日举行至关重要的年度股东大会，这将是一场“硝烟四起的”大会。据媒体周一报道，本次大会股东们需要就两件重大事项进行表决：首席执行官马斯克的560亿美元薪酬方案，以及公司注册地是否从特拉华州迁至总部所在的德克萨斯州。

马拉松石油盘前涨超7%，康菲石油收购谈判已进入后期阶段

$马拉松石油 (MRO.US)$美股盘前涨超7%，消息面上，据英国《金融时报》援引知情人士的话称，$康菲石油 (COP.US)$正在就收购马拉松石油公司进行深入谈判，这笔全股票交易对后者的估值可能略高于其150亿美元的市值。

法拉第未来盘前大跌近33%，警告可能永远无法实现或维持盈利

$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$美股盘前大跌近33%，消息面上，法拉第未来在财报中表示，尽管FF已经开始首次交付FF 91系列，但由于各种原因，包括FF 91系列及其相关服务的需求不足、车辆服务和保修成本、竞争加剧、宏观经济环境挑战、监管变化以及本文讨论的其他风险，FF可能永远无法实现或维持盈利。此外，公司可能会产生不可预见的费用，或者在交付FF 91系列时遇到困难和延迟，因此可能永远无法产生足够的收入来维持自身的运营。

靠炒币翻身？这家医疗科技公司买入比特币后股价飙升

医疗保健提供商$Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR.US)$宣布采用比特币作为其主要储备资产，推动其股价隔夜一度大涨逾40%。据悉，该公司已购买了581枚比特币，总价值为4000万美元，其中包括费用和开支。截至发稿，Semler Scientific盘前再涨23%。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普跌

滴滴一季度营收同比增长14.9%

$DiDi Global Inc (DIDIY.US)$5月29日发布截至3月底的第一季度财报。2024年第一季度，滴滴总营收491亿元人民币，同比增长14.9%；第一季度净亏损13.5亿元人民币。第一季度核心平台交易总额达到922亿元人民币，同比增长26.9%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

22:00 美国5月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数

次日

01:45 FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯参加一场圆桌会议

02:00 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书

04:30 美国至5月24日当周API原油库存(万桶)

07:00 2024年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克就经济前景发表讲话

编辑/Somer

Global macroscopic

Before Wednesday's market, the three major indices weakened collectively

Overnight, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari, who has the right to vote at the 2026 FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee, said that the Fed's policy stance is restrictive, but the Fed's policymakers have not completely ruled out the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

UBS raised the target price of US stocks twice in 3 months: it can rise another 6% during the year

UBS released a report saying that as the risk of a recession in the US economy shrinks, the profit growth of US companies exceeded expectations, prompting the bank to once again raise the year-end target of the S&P 500 index to 5,600 points (previously 5,400 points), which means an increase of 5.6% from the current level of around 5,300 points. In February of this year, UBS raised the target point of the S&P 500 index once again, and this increase shows UBS's strong confidence in the future of US stocks.

A dark thunder in the face of America's strong economy! Federal Reserve Officials Warn: Consumer Default Rates Have Risked Sharply

Although US economic data seems to indicate that the growth rate of the US economy is rebounding strongly, and Wall Street is worrying less and less about the US recession, the latest data shows that the consumer default rate rose sharply in the first quarter of 2024. This may be a dark ray buried under the image of a prosperous US economy. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goulsby stressed that the consumer default rate is currently one of the most worrying economic indicators.

A weak yen may cause a storm of inflation! Bank of Japan officials suggest they may use the sword of interest rate hikes early

Bank of Japan Policy Committee review committee member Seiji Adachi said that if a sharp drop in yen boosts inflation or causes public views on future prices to exceed expectations, the bank may take action to raise interest rates. Adachi Seiji said that although the Japanese economy is not necessarily strong now, consumption, exports, and capital expenditure may continue to recover as households begin to benefit from rising wages and as signs of recovery overseas appear.

The gold oil and copper bull market is not over yet! UBS: Commodities can rise another 10% in the next 6 to 12 months

The UBS analyst team pointed out that there is still room for further increases in commodity prices. Rising demand for oil and copper and increasing supply shortages may provide good support for prices in the next 6 to 12 months. The UBS CMCI Composite Index, a commodity index compiled by UBS, has risen nearly 11% so far this year. The forecast is that the commodity index will rise another 10% in the next 6 to 12 months.

Hot news

Most star tech stocks fell before Wednesday's market

Nvidia's rise is far from over! Analyst: The AI moat is indestructible, and the stock price is expected to more than double

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The market capitalization is close to Apple, reaching 2.8 trillion US dollars, making it the third-largest company in the world by market capitalization. According to I/O Fund technology analyst Beth Kinding, with its impenetrable moat, Nvidia's stock price will soar 258% from current levels by 2030, and its market value will reach 10 trillion US dollars. As of press time, Nvidia was slightly up ahead of the market.

This year, Tesla's shareholders' meeting will decide two major issues

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The critical Annual General Meeting of Shareholders will be held on June 13. This will be a “full of smoke” meeting. According to media reports on Monday, shareholders at this meeting need to vote on two important matters: CEO Musk's $56 billion compensation plan, and whether to move the company's place of registration from Delaware to Texas, where it is headquartered.

Marathon Oil rose more than 7% before the market, and ConocoPhillips takeover negotiations have entered an advanced stage

$Marathon Oil (MRO.US)$US stocks rose more than 7% in the premarket. According to the news, according to the Financial Times, quoting people familiar with the matter,$ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$In-depth negotiations are ongoing to acquire Marathon Petroleum, and this all-stock deal may value the latter slightly above its $15 billion market value.

Faraday will plummet by nearly 33% ahead of the market, warning that profits may never be achieved or maintained

$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$US stocks plummeted by nearly 33% before the market. According to the news, Faraday Future said in the earnings report that although FF has begun delivering the FF 91 series for the first time, due to various reasons, including insufficient demand for the FF 91 series and related services, increased competition, macroeconomic environmental challenges, regulatory changes, and other risks discussed in this article, FF may never be able to achieve or maintain profits. Additionally, the company may incur unforeseen expenses or experience difficulties and delays in delivering the FF 91 series, so it may never be able to generate enough revenue to maintain its operations.

Get over by trading coins? This medtech company's stock soared after buying Bitcoin

health care provider$Semler Scientific (SMLR.US)$It announced the adoption of Bitcoin as its main reserve asset, driving its stock price to soar by more than 40% overnight. According to reports, the company has purchased 581 bitcoins with a total value of 40 million US dollars, including fees and expenses. As of press time, Semler Scientific is up another 23% in the premarket.

Focus on China Securities

Popular Chinese securities stocks generally declined before the market

Didi's revenue for the first quarter increased 14.9% year-on-year

$DiDi Global Inc (DIDIY.US)$Financial results for the first quarter ending the end of March were released on May 29. In the first quarter of 2024, Didi's total revenue was RMB 49.1 billion, up 14.9% year on year; net loss for the first quarter was RMB 1.35 billion. The total number of core platform transactions in the first quarter reached RMB 92.2 billion, an increase of 26.9% over the previous year.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

22:00 US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

The next day

01:45 FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams attended a round table

02:00 The Federal Reserve announces the Beige Book on the state of the economy

04:30 API crude oil inventory for the week from the US to May 24 (10,000 barrels)

07:00 2024 FOMC Voting Committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a speech on the economic outlook

Editor/Somer

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