E-commerce promotions are imminent, and the volume is expected to rise month by month, maintaining a high year-on-year trend; leading companies' demand for profit is increasing, and price competition is slowing down.
According to the Post Office, express delivery business volume was +25.2% year-on-year in the first quarter and +22.7% year-on-year in April. Demand data continued to improve. CICC believes that the annual growth rate is expected to exceed expectations at the beginning of the year, mainly due to resilient online consumption, the development of live e-commerce, smaller packages, and an increase in the return ratio.
Looking at the medium-term three-year dimension, CICC believes that demand in the express delivery industry is still expected to maintain high to low double-digit growth.
Dongxing Securities released a research report saying that March-April was originally a low season for the express delivery industry, but the volume of items in the industry all surpassed the level of November last year. It can be seen that demand in the industry is currently strong, but price competition in the industry is still fierce in April. The price of a single ticket dropped from 8.15 yuan/ticket in March to 7.99 yuan/ticket in April, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%.
At present, the intensity of the price war shown by the express delivery industry is at a high level, and there is limited room for the intensity to continue to increase. If the price war eases, the performance of related companies will all be quite flexible.
Although the market generally believes that Shentong and Yunda, which have lower single-ticket profits, are more flexible, the sharp decline in single-ticket revenue means a drop in the pressure on franchisees to pay fees, so when the price war eases, priority is needed to ease the operating pressure on franchisees.
The Huayuan Securities Research Report points out that competition in the express delivery industry is currently moderate, and the certainty and potential flexibility of current performance is cherished.
Leading companies accept fluctuations in shares within a reasonable range, lower back companies have flexible strategies, and back-row companies expect break-even.
Under multiple demands such as industry demand exceeding expectations, increased capacity utilization, and restoration of the franchisee ecosystem, the industry ushered in a period of easing competition, increased performance visibility, and back-row enterprises are also expected to unleash performance flexibility.
Courier-related companies:
Zhongtong Express-W (02057): Zhongtong Express is the leading e-commerce express delivery company in China. As the industry enters a stage of high-quality development and maintains a stable competitive order, it is expected to achieve steady growth in volume and profit with its scale, assets and management advantages. Furthermore, the company's inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Standard is expected to usher in improved liquidity.
JD Logistics (02618): Significant losses were reversed this quarter, which played an important role in the overall group's performance exceeding expectations in this quarter. According to data, in the first quarter, JD Logistics's net profit was 240 million yuan, with a loss of 990 million yuan in the same period last year; adjusted net profit was 660 million yuan, with a loss of 710 million yuan for the same period last year. Looking at revenue by business segment, revenue from JD's integrated logistics supply chain reached 20.5 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 11.1% year on year; revenue from other customers, including express delivery and express delivery, was 21.64 billion yuan, up 18.4% year on year.