Source: Zhitong Finance
Author: Lee Kyun-hyun
Experts expect global annual sales of diet pills to soar to around $150 billion by the early 2030s.
As millions of patients turn to Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly for weight loss drugs, and the expansion of supply, expansion of potential uses, and an increase in the number of competitors, experts expect global annual sales of diet pills to soar to about 150 billion US dollars by the early 2030s. Compared to the $100 billion estimate a year ago, this figure is a significant increase.
According to data from medical analysis company IQVIA, global spending on weight loss drugs last year totaled $24 billion. In its latest five-year outlook, IQVIA predicts that by 2028, the market size may reach US$131 billion, and the growth rate is expected to be 27%, which is a significant increase from the previous 13% forecast.
However, to achieve this level of sales, it is necessary to address several factors, including the time patients take medication, the versatility of the drug, and new sales models. Currently, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound are working to increase production despite limited supply.
BMO Capital Markets predicts that by 2033, annual sales of diet pills will reach 150 billion US dollars, far higher than the forecast figure of 100 billion US dollars a year ago. Leerink predicts that in 2032, annual sales will reach $158 billion.
Analysts pointed out that self-injecting drugs can help avoid expensive emergencies such as heart attacks and strokes, or treat chronic diseases such as sleep apnea, which makes it reasonable for employers and insurance companies to pay expenses.
David Song, portfolio manager of the Tema Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF, said there is huge consumer demand and unmet medical needs. More than 100 million people are obese in the US, and nearly 1 billion people are obese globally.
According to the latest survey data recently released by KFF, a well-known health research institute, 1 out of every 8 American adults has tried the rapidly growing novel diabetes and anti-obesity drugs, including Ozempic (simeglutide) by Novo Nordisk, which has the title of “magic drug for weight loss,” and Zepbound by Eli Lilly, which highlights the rapid pace of popularization of these treatments among adults. The KFF survey also showed that of those who tried injecting this weight loss drug, about half are still taking it. The new poll was conducted at the end of April. Nearly 1,500 adults were sampled online and by phone in English and Spanish.
These new drugs are priced at over $1,000 per month in the US, and their sales volume has made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk one of the most valuable companies in the world. So far this year, Eli Lilly's stock price has risen 36%, and Novo Nordisk's stock price has risen 33%.
Competitors see the potential to develop treatments that are more convenient, lose weight better, or provide more health benefits. Some treatments seek to improve the durability or quality of weight loss by distinguishing between fat and lean body mass.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are also developing next-generation compounds. According to IQVIA, more than 80 experimental weight loss drugs have entered human testing. Currently, research drugs mainly mimic the intestinal hormone GLP-1, such as Wegovy and Zepbound. These drugs can be used alone or in combination with compounds targeting the second hormone GIP, such as Amgen's drug Maritide.
Other experimental drugs, such as Eli Lilly's latatropine, target the blood sugar regulating hormone glucagon in addition to GLP-1, GIP, or both. The third class of drugs includes Novo Nordisk's amiktin. In addition to binding GLP-1, this drug also targets pancreatin, a hormone in the pancreas that affects hunger.
Price competition is expected as new players enter the market. Optimistically, however, the channel will expand, and the increase in sales will offset the impact of falling prices.
Editor/Jeffy