受锂盐价格下降影响，业绩短期承压，出货量居行业首位23 年公司营收226.57 亿元，实现归母净利润5.81 亿元，同比分别下降24.78%和57.07%，主要系：1）23 年主要原材料锂盐的价格大幅下跌，对公司营收及利润等产生不利影响；2）公司在全球化布局（韩国、欧美）、磷酸锰铁锂和钠电产品开发方面加大了战略性投入，对当前利润有一定影响；3）公司采取更积极市场竞争策略，保证了市场占有率的提升，对当期毛利有一定影响。根据公司年报披露，23 年公司三元正极材料出货约10 万吨，同比增长11%，全球市占率超10%，连续三年保持行业首位。2023 年，公司分别与日韩客户签订合作框架协议，并实现向欧美主流车企客户的规模化出货，四季度单月出货规模达千吨。公司产品应用于海外终端车型占比有显著提升，海外市场的品牌影响力进一步提升。performance
The company publishes its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. The company's revenue in 2023 was 22.657 billion yuan, -25% YoY, net profit of 581 million yuan, -57% YoY, net profit without return to mother was 515 million yuan, -61% YoY; of these, 2023Q4 achieved revenue of 4.083 billion yuan, -62% YoY, -28% month-on-month, net profit to mother -0.35 billion yuan, -108% YoY, net profit of -44 million yuan, -111% YoY and -119% month-on-month.
2024Q1's revenue was 3.692 billion yuan, -56% YoY, -10% month-on-month, net profit to mother was -037 million yuan, -112% YoY, -6% month-on-month, net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of -38 million yuan, -113% YoY, +13% month-on-month.
Affected by the decline in lithium salt prices, performance was under pressure in the short term. Shipments ranked first in the industry with revenue of 22,657 billion yuan, achieving net profit of 581 million yuan, down 24.78% and 57.07% from the previous year, respectively. The main reason was: 1) The price of lithium salt, the main raw material, fell sharply in 23, which adversely affected the company's revenue and profits; 2) The company increased strategic investment in the development of global layout (South Korea, Europe and the United States), lithium manganese phosphate and sodium electric products, which had a certain impact on current profits; 3) The company adopted a more active market competition strategy to ensure that the market competition strategy was more active and guaranteed The increase in market share has a certain impact on current gross profit. According to the company's annual report, the company shipped about 100,000 tons of ternary cathode materials in '23, an increase of 11% over the previous year, with a global market share of over 10%, maintaining the top position in the industry for three consecutive years. In 2023, the company signed separate cooperation framework agreements with Japanese and Korean customers, and achieved large-scale shipments to mainstream European and American car companies. The monthly shipment scale reached 1,000 tons in the fourth quarter. The proportion of the company's products used in overseas terminal models has increased significantly, and the brand influence in overseas markets has further increased.
Large-scale shipments of 9 series ultra-high nickel products have accelerated technological iteration of innovative products. In 23 years, the company's 9 series and above products have been used on a large scale in large cylindrical batteries, and shipped nearly 10,000 tons throughout the year, consolidating the company's technological leadership in the field of high nickel. In terms of lithium manganese iron phosphate, the company has developed ternary mixed M6P products, high-capacity products with a manganese to iron ratio of 7:3, and next-generation solid-liquid integrated process products, and completed pilot tests on automotive power batteries. It is expected to achieve a breakthrough in the automotive market in 2024. The company's sodium electrocathode layered materials have now been steadily mass-produced, and are also developing industry-leading polyanionic products, and have received orders from core customers in different market segments. In terms of precursors, sales increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, and production line certification for overseas customers was completed during the same period.
Investment advice
We expect the company's net profit to be 5.14/8.80/1,251 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding to 27, 16, and 11 times PE. Based on the increase in the company's share of overseas customers, the superimposed new products are progressing faster, and a “buy” rating is given.
Risk warning
Demand for new energy vehicles fell short of expectations; downstream market growth fell short of expectations; raw material prices rose sharply; industry competition intensified; customer expansion fell short of expectations, etc.
