全年来看，公司实现产品出货7.57 万吨，其中钴酸锂3.46 万吨，三元材料3.74 万吨，氢能材料0.37 万吨，整体出货同比去年下降，主要源于三元材料销量受终端需求影响同比下滑19.4%。产品方面，公司引领高功率高电压钴酸锂及三元材料，Ni6 系4.4V 已在混动车型客户中大批量应用，8 系和9 系产品推进海外车厂认证，同时高功率高电压三元产品有望在应用于下一代低空飞行电池终端。盈利方面，公司单吨毛利同比下降，主要受资源品价格波动以及加工费下降影响。拆分至四季度，公司单吨毛利预计环比Q3 下滑，主要源于下游客户谈价后加工费下降。此外，公司Q4 资产减值损失0.45 亿元。Description of the event
Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 17.311 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.79%, realized a year-on-year decrease of 52.93%, and realized deducted non-net profit of 466 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.44%; in the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 3.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.02%, and a year-on-year increase of 111 million yuan. 4.28%
Incident comments
Looking at the whole year, the company shipped 75,700 tons of products, including 34,600 tons of lithium cobalate, 37,400 tons of ternary materials, and 0.37 million tons of hydrogen energy materials. Overall shipments declined year-on-year, mainly due to a 19.4% year-on-year decline in sales of ternary materials due to terminal demand. In terms of products, the company is leading the way in high-power high-voltage lithium cobalate and ternary materials. Ni6 series 4.4V has been used in large quantities among hybrid model customers. 8 series and 9 series products are promoting certification by overseas car manufacturers. At the same time, high-power high-voltage ternary products are expected to be used in the next generation of low-altitude flight battery terminals. In terms of profit, the company's gross profit per ton declined year-on-year, mainly due to fluctuations in the price of raw materials and the decline in processing costs. After splitting into the fourth quarter, the company's gross profit per ton is expected to decline month-on-month compared to Q3, mainly due to lower processing costs after downstream customers negotiated prices. Additionally, the company lost 45 million yuan in Q4 asset impairment.
Looking at 24Q1 alone, the company shipped 15,900 tons of ternary materials and 0.84 million tons of lithium cobalate, and continued to grow over 23Q4, mainly due to the boom in terminal PHEV sales driving the increase in shipments; in terms of profit, it is estimated that the company's Q1 single-ton gross profit declined month-on-month, due to the gradual execution of low-price orders at the end of 23; net profit estimates for a single ton improved month-on-month, mainly due to improvements on the cost side. In addition, the company lost 021 million yuan in asset impairment and redeemed gains of 31 million yuan from credit impairment.
Looking forward to the future, the company's domestic market is progressing steadily, and production capacity at the Haijing and Ningde bases is being steadily built to support steady growth in shipments; in terms of profit, the company's lithium cobalate profit is relatively stable. After the 23Q4 price reduction, the company's profit for ternary materials is currently in a reasonable position, and it is expected to remain stable as demand recovers.
The company is expected to achieve a profit of 5-6 billion yuan in 2024 and continues to be recommended.
Risk warning
1. Market competition increases risk;
2. The risk that demand in the power battery industry falls short of expectations.
