Sales volume review, Xiaopeng's phased success and failure review
The P7, G6, and G9 facelift helped Xiaopeng achieve many phased successes, but they were all less sustainable. We think the apparent reason was an increase in competition in the later stages, and the underlying reason was that Xiaopeng had problems with management, product definition, and marketing.
Shortcut: Complete all aspects of management & product definition & marketing
After the loss of G9, the company was deeply aware of its problems in management, product definition, marketing, etc., and recruited Wang Fengying, the former president of Great Wall Motors, to carry out comprehensive reforms: strengthening consumer attributes & streamlining SKU & focusing on design; reducing costs and adjusting the supply chain through modular architecture in terms of cost; focusing on cost reduction & pricing strategies; and implementing a community system in response to channel issues. Through a series of reforms, the company's product win rate increased markedly. Before the reform, only P7 was successful in stages, and all new products achieved phased success after the reform.
Yang Chang: Smart driving is the core competency of car companies. Xiaopeng is leading the smart driving industry at the industry level. The availability of smart driving will increase dramatically from 2024, and intelligence is expected to become one of the core competencies of car companies. At the company level, Xiaopeng's smart driving ability is the industry leader: 1) Xiaopeng is the first domestic car company to release smart driving systems and the first to enter full-stack self-development; 2) Xiaopeng is the first domestic car company to enter the NOA stage; 3) Xiaopeng's smart driving has been recognized by the world's largest car company. At the same time, considering the relevant background of the company's founders and the importance placed on smart driving, and considering that the intelligent genes of the Xiaopeng Smart Driving team are strong and consistent, we believe that the company's smart driving advantage is expected to continue to be maintained.
New product and sales outlook: MONA guarantees the basic sales volume, which is expected to return to the 20,000 per month level, complete the shortfall & start the new product cycle (X9, MONA, and new models) in the context of increased usability of smart driving. 24 will be a year for Xiaopeng to make up for the shortfall and prosper. After both the new cars and MONA have entered a steady state of delivery, sales are expected to return to the 20,000/month level and stabilize at 20,000 per month.
Profit forecast: We forecast that the company's revenue for 24-26 will be 381/664/75.5 billion yuan, and net profit will be -61/71.2 billion yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on May 27, the corresponding PS for 2024-2026 will be 1.5/0.9/0.8, respectively. Considering the arrival of the company's new product cycle, sales are expected to continue to rise, and considering that intelligence is the general development trend of the industry, the company has an intelligent leading edge, giving the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The decline in channels is facing brand awareness issues in the sinking market; 2) the scarcity of Xiaopeng Smart Driving is impacted by FSD's entry into China and Xiaomi's listing; 3) Tesla's price cuts impacted Xiaopeng's sales; 4) The launch of the Xiaomi SU7 impacted Xiaopeng's sales; 5) the public data used in the research report may be delayed or updated untimely.