Above the ADC outlet, the Columbotai platform has obvious advantages
ADC is starting a broad-spectrum anti-tumor model, which is expected to lead a new era of precision chemotherapy and become a changer in the cancer treatment pattern. As a pioneer, Collumbotai has successfully built the OptiDC R&D platform. 4 ADCs are in clinical research and many are in pre-clinical research. Among them, TROP2 ADC showed good efficacy and safety in TNBC and eGFRMT NSCLC, and has potential for BIC.
At the same time, the three R&D platforms of Colombotech OptiDC, macromolecules and small molecules have synergetic advantages, and are in a leading position in ADC process development, manufacturing and quality control. In the future, research and development of toxin molecules will be a key part of ADC upgrading. Compared with companies that have no accumulation of small molecule R&D, Columbite has a greater advantage.
Colombotech ADC and MSD join hands to lead the international layout
In the current domestic payment environment, it has become a necessary option for innovative drugs to go overseas. From May to December 2022, Colombotech and MSD reached a total of 3 cooperative deals, covering 9 new ADC drugs, with a total advance payment of US$257 million and a total transaction amount of US$11.8 billion. It became the world's largest biopharmaceutical cooperation in 2022. It was also the first Chinese pharmaceutical company to launch an ADC candidate discovered and developed internally to the top ten biopharmaceutical multinational companies.
MSD's Keytruda and ADC have excellent potential for combined use. Regarding SKB264 (MK-2870), MSD has initiated a total of 9 global phase III clinical trials, covering various tumors such as non-small cell lung cancer, endometrial cancer, breast cancer, and gastric cancer. The strong combination of ADC and PD-1 is expected to bring significant overseas revenue commissions to Colombotech.
Commercialization of Columbotai is imminent. Abundant pipeline reserves have laid a solid foundation for the company's development. 4-5 pipelines will soon be commercialized, including the two core ADC products SKB264 and A166, which are expected to turn a loss into a profit in 2027.
The company has 33 innovative projects to treat major diseases such as tumors, autoimmunity, inflammation, metabolism, etc.; 14 projects are promoting clinical research; multiple clinical trials are global multi-center studies; 19 pre-clinical assets have laid a solid foundation for the company's development.
Profit forecasting and investment ratings: We believe the company has the potential to become a Biopharma and is worth holding on for a long time. According to Colombotai's R&D progress and sales revenue forecasts, we used cash flow discounts and sales peak multiples for valuation. The corresponding market values were HK$49.6 billion and HK$61.6 billion, respectively.
First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of drug candidate development falling short of expectations; risk of related technology falling behind; risk of third party cooperation; risk of loss of core talent.