No.1 Research Memo (9): The fiscal year ending 2025/2, which is the first year of the new medium-term management plan, profit is expected to decline temporarily while sales increase

Fisco Japan · May 28 14:29

■業績見通し

1. 2025年2月期の業績予想

2025年2月期の連結業績予想についてNo.1＜3562＞は、売上高を前期比4.8%増の14,100百万円、営業利益を同24.3%減の930百万円、経常利益を同24.8%減の915百万円、親会社株主に帰属する当期純利益を同35.3%減の573百万円と増収ながら戦略的成長投資の影響により減益を見込んでいる。

引き続き好調な情報セキュリティ機器の販売や「No.1ビジネスサポート」の積み上げに取り組むとともに、業務提携先のハイパーとの連携（販路開拓等）によるWeb制作やクラウドサービス「デジテラス」の伸びも増収に寄与する想定である。なお、2024年4月24日に公表した2件のM&A（OZ MODE、アイ・ティ・エンジニアリング）については、現時点で業績予想の中に入っていない※。

※同社では開示すべき事項が発生した場合は、速やかに公表するとしている。

一方、利益面で一旦減益となるのは、既述のとおり、企業価値向上に向けた基盤づくりを優先する方針のもと、人財・システム・新規事業・M&Aへの積極投資が理由であり、営業利益率も6.6%（前期は9.1%）に低下する。

2. 今後の注目点

弊社では、今回の長期ビジョン及び新中期経営計画によって示された方向性は、これまでの成功体験に甘んじることなく、100年企業を見据えて自分たちの足りないものは何か、どう進化すべきかをバックキャスティングで判断し、構造改革に踏み切る決断をした点において非常に理にかなったものと評価している。これまでもM&Aなどを通じて外部資源を活用し、環境変化に合わせてパワーアップしてきた同社にとって、これからどのような進化を遂げていくのか、まさに経営手腕の見せ所と言えるだろう。一方、足元に目を向けると、同社の業績予想の前提は新中期経営計画に沿ったものであり、戦略的成長投資による影響を合理的に織り込んだものと評価できる。もっとも、2件のM&Aについては業績予想に入っておらず、少なくても売上高はアップサイドの可能性もあるだろう。注目すべきは、ハイパーとの業務提携による販路拡大の動きである。特に、オラクルとの提携により開発したクラウドサービス「デジテラス」などは、従来の顧客層より数段上のレイヤー（100人規模）においてこそフィットする可能性が高く、今後の展開に期待が持てる。また、戦略的成長投資についても、構造改革に向けてどういった分野に資金投入し、どのような投資効果を目指すのか、具体的な動きを追うことは今後の戦略を探るうえでも重要な判断材料になるだろう。新たに参入したSES事業の立ち上がりにも注目したい。早期に軌道に乗ってくれば、さらなる拡大の動き（M&A等）にも注意する必要がある。いずれにしても、新たな顧客層の開拓（顧客レイヤーの引き上げ）と新規事業の拡大は相互に連動するものであり、そういった視点からフォローする必要があるだろう。一方、中長期の目線からは、1) 戦略的成長投資による構造改革の進捗のほか、2) SES事業を含む新規領域の拡大の動き、3) 新たな販路開拓及び顧客レイヤーの変化などが注目点にあげられる。これらの動きとともに同社の成長性や収益性にも大きな変化が生じる可能性が高く、同社はまさに転換点にあるとの見方ができる。グロースパートナーズとのハンズオン型業務提携についても経営の本気度を示しており、外部の視点も取り入れながら時価総額300億円に向けた道筋をいかにたどっていくのか、今後の動向を見守りたい。

（執筆：フィスコ客員アナリスト　柴田郁夫）

■Earnings Forecast

1. Earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2025/2

Regarding the consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2025/2, No. 1 (3562) anticipates a decrease in profit due to the impact of strategic growth investments while sales increase to 14,100 million yen, up 4.8% from the previous fiscal year, operating profit down 24.3% to 915 million yen, and net income attributable to parent company shareholders to increase 35.3% to 573 million yen.

In addition to continuing to work on strong sales of information security equipment and building up “No. 1 business support,” it is expected that growth in web production and cloud service “DigiTerrace” due to collaboration (market development, etc.) with business partners Hyper will also contribute to the increase in sales. Note that the two M&A (OZ MODE, IT Engineering) announced on 2024/4/24 are currently not included in earnings forecasts*.

* The company says that when matters to be disclosed occur, they will be promptly announced.

Meanwhile, the reason for the temporary decline in profit in terms of profit is due to active investment in human resources, systems, new businesses, and M&A under a policy that prioritizes building infrastructure aimed at improving corporate value, and the operating profit margin also falls to 6.6% (9.1% in the previous fiscal year).

2. Future highlights

At our company, we evaluate the direction shown by the current long-term vision and the new medium-term management plan as very reasonable in that they did not settle for successful experiences up until now, determined what we lacked and how we should evolve with an eye on a 100-year company through backcasting, and made a decision to go through structural reforms. For the company, which until now has utilized external resources through M&A, etc., and increased its power in line with environmental changes, it can be said that it is truly a place to show off its management skills as it evolves in the future. Meanwhile, looking at the current situation, the premise of the company's earnings forecast is in line with the new medium-term management plan, and it can be evaluated as rationally incorporating the impact of strategic growth investments. However, the two M&A transactions are not in the earnings forecast, and there is a possibility that sales will be on the upside at least. What is noteworthy is the movement to expand sales channels due to business alliances with Hyper. In particular, there is a high possibility that the cloud service “DigiTerrace,” etc., developed in partnership with Oracle will fit only at a layer (100 person scale) several levels above the conventional customer base, and there are expectations for future development. Also, with regard to strategic growth investments, following specific movements as to what fields to invest in structural reforms and what kind of investment effects they are aiming for will be an important judgment material in searching for future strategies. I would also like to pay attention to the launch of the newly entered SES business. If it gets on track early, it is necessary to pay attention to further expansion movements (M&A, etc.). In any case, the development of a new customer base (raising the customer layer) and the expansion of new businesses are interlinked, and it will be necessary to follow up from that point of view. Meanwhile, from a medium- to long-term perspective, points of interest include 1) progress in structural reforms through strategic growth investments, 2) movement to expand new areas, including SES business, and 3) new market development and changes in the customer layer. There is a high possibility that major changes will occur in the company's growth potential and profitability along with these movements, and it can be viewed that the company is at a turning point. The hands-on business partnership with Growth Partners also shows the seriousness of management, and I would like to keep an eye on future trends as to how they follow the path towards a total market value of 30 billion yen while incorporating external perspectives.

(Written by FISCO Visiting Analyst Ikuo Shibata)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

No.1 Research Memo（9）：新中期経営計画初年度となる2025年2月期は、増収ながら一旦減益となる見通し

No.1 Research Memo (9): The fiscal year ending 2025/2, which is the first year of the new medium-term management plan, profit is expected to decline temporarily while sales increase

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