Semiconductor industry tracking

The third phase of the National Big Fund was officially established! The semiconductor industry is facing significant benefits; which targets are expected to benefit?

Futu News · May 28 15:45

近日，国家集成电路产业投资基金三期股份有限公司（国家大基金三期）成立，法定代表人为张新，注册资本3440亿人民币，为历来最大规模。经营范围包括私募股权投资基金管理、创业投资基金管理服务，以私募基金从事股权投资、投资管理、资产管理等活动，企业管理咨询。

股东信息显示，该公司由财政部、国开金融有限责任公司、上海国盛（集团）有限公司、中国工商银行股份有限公司、中国建设银行股份有限公司、中国农业银行股份有限公司、中国银行股份有限公司等19位股东共同持股，财政部是其第一大股东，持股17.44%。

大基金三期注册资本超前两期总和

一个显而易见的变化是，大基金三期的注册资本高于一期、二期的总和。

回顾国家大基金的历史，中国首个国家集成电路产业投资基金（大基金一期）于2014年成立，注册资本987亿元，投资总规模达1387亿元；国家集成电路产业投资基金二期股份有限公司（大基金二期）于2019年成立，注册资本2042亿元。此外，彭博社今年3月曾报道称国家大基金三期募资2000亿元，而如今这个数据超预期70%。

从投资方向来看，国家大基金的前两期投资布局制造、设备和材料等环节，为中国芯片产业的初期发展奠定了坚实基础。

公开资料显示，大基金一期在2018年底已基本投资完毕。在大基金一期投资项目中，集成电路制造占67%，设计占17%，封测占10%，装备材料类占6%。可以看出，大基金一期有近半数资金投向了集成电路制造领域，IC设计及封测业次之，对半导体设备及材料等产业链上游环节的投入占比则相对较小。
大基金二期则向设备材料端有所倾斜。数据显示，晶圆制造领域仍然收获了最多来自大基金二期的出资，比例达到70%；对装备、材料的投资占比有所增加，达到了10%左右；对IC设计项目的投资额也达到了10%左右的比例；对封测业的出资比例则有较大幅度的下降。

对于大基金三期具体投向，中信证券预计半导体制造仍为最大，并有望进一步加大支持设备、材料、零部件、EDA、IP等卡脖子领域，建议持续关注相关领域龙头企业。

此外，随着大基金三期成立，大基金一期、大基金二期发生工商变更，楼宇光卸任两公司法定代表人、董事长，均由张新接任。张新也是大基金三期的法人代表和董事长。

国有六大行首次参与，拟出资共超千亿

国家大基金三期的主要出资结构也发生了比较显著的变化，银行新增成为主要股东，地方国资集中在北京和广东两地。

昨日，六大行公告向国家大基金三期出资事项。具体来看，$建设银行 (00939.HK)$、$中国银行 (03988.HK)$、$农业银行 (01288.HK)$和$工商银行 (01398.HK)$即将出资215亿元，持股6.25%；$交通银行 (03328.HK)$拟出资200亿元，占比5.814%；$邮储银行 (01658.HK)$拟出资80亿元，占比约2.33%。银行系股东合计持股占比约33%，上述六家银行合计将出资1140亿元。

相比前两期，国家大基金三期中，除了财政部和国开金融、国盛集团等“老面孔”，央企和北京、广东等地方国资成为国家大基金三期的“主力军”。

今年以来存储芯片价格已较去年同期上涨约50%。有报告显示，存储芯片价格或还将持续上涨，预计今年第二季度DRAM内存新品合约价格将上涨13%至18%。

山西证券称，价格上涨趋势明确，存储进入新一轮上行周期，未来随着存储价格持续涨价带来的营业利润率改善，存储厂商有望迎来业绩与估值的戴维斯双击，行业存在较大的反弹空间。
东北证券发布研报认为，存储芯片行业景气度进入上行通道，国内厂商未来可期。需求端，中国存储芯片市场与全球市场周期同步，并且增速高于全球市场。供给端，海外厂商寡头长期垄断，国内厂商逐步突破。在存储模组、利基存储、内存接口芯片领域龙头企业具有广阔成长空间。

哪些概念股将受益？

随着国家大基金三期正式成立，半导体行业迎重磅利好，富途资讯梳理了部分半导体概念股，供牛友们参考。

半导体企业：$中芯国际 (00981.HK)$、$华虹半导体 (01347.HK)$、$上海复旦 (01385.HK)$、$中电华大科技 (00085.HK)$、$晶门半导体 (02878.HK)$；

半导体设备厂商：$ASMPT (00522.HK)$；

另外，如果投资者不想投资芯片股，还有ETF可以选择：$GX中国半导 (03191.HK)$、$富邦台湾半导体 (03076.HK)$、$三星环球半导体 (03132.HK)$、$GX中国半导-U (09191.HK)$、$GX亚洲半导体 (03119.HK)$。

编辑/tolk

Recently, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III Co., Ltd. (National Big Fund Phase III) was established. The legal representative is Zhang Xin, with a registered capital of RMB 344 billion, the largest in history. The scope of business includes private equity investment fund management, venture capital fund management services, using private equity funds to engage in activities such as equity investment, investment management, asset management, etc., and enterprise management consulting.

According to shareholder information, the company is jointly owned by 19 shareholders, including the Ministry of Finance, Guokai Finance Co., Ltd., Shanghai Guosheng (Group) Co., Ltd., Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Co., Ltd., China Construction Bank Co., Ltd., Agricultural Bank of China Co., Ltd., and Bank of China Co., Ltd. The Ministry of Finance is its largest shareholder, holding 17.44% of the shares.

The registered capital of the third phase of the Big Fund surpassed the sum of the previous two instalments

One obvious change is that the registered capital of Big Fund Phase III is higher than the sum of Phase I and Phase II.

Looking back at the history of China's Big Fund, China's first National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (Big Fund Phase I) was established in 2014 with a registered capital of 98.7 billion yuan, with a total investment scale of 138.7 billion yuan; National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II Co., Ltd. (Big Fund Phase II) was established in 2019 with a registered capital of 204.2 billion yuan. Furthermore, in March of this year, Bloomberg reported that the third phase of the National Capital Fund raised 200 billion yuan, and now this figure exceeds expectations by 70%.

Looking at the direction of investment, the first two phases of the National Capital Fund laid a solid foundation for the initial development of China's chip industry in terms of manufacturing, equipment and materials.

According to public information, the first phase of the Big Fund had basically completed investment at the end of 2018. In the first phase of the Big Fund's investment projects, integrated circuit manufacturing accounted for 67%, design accounted for 17%, sealing and testing accounted for 10%, and equipment materials accounted for 6%. As can be seen, nearly half of the capital of the first phase of the Big Fund was invested in the field of integrated circuit manufacturing, followed by the IC design and packaging and testing industry, which accounted for a relatively small share of the upstream part of the semiconductor equipment and materials industry chain.
The second phase of the Big Fund is skewed towards equipment materials. According to the data, the wafer manufacturing sector still received the most investment from the second phase of the Big Fund, reaching 70%; the share of investment in equipment and materials increased, reaching about 10%; the investment amount in IC design projects also reached a ratio of about 10%; and the share of investment in the sealing and testing industry declined significantly.

Regarding the specific investment of the third phase of the Big Fund, CITIC Securities expects semiconductor manufacturing to remain the largest, and is expected to further increase support for critical areas such as equipment, materials, components, EDA, and IP. It is recommended to continue to focus on leading companies in related fields.

Furthermore, with the establishment of Big Fund Phase III, there were commercial and commercial changes in Big Fund Phase 1 and Big Fund Phase II. Lou Yuguang stepped down as the legal representative and chairman of the two companies, and Zhang Xin took over. Zhang Xin is also the legal representative and chairman of the third phase of the Big Fund.

The six major state-owned banks participated for the first time, and they plan to invest more than 100 billion dollars

The main investment structure of the third phase of the National Big Fund has also undergone significant changes. Banks have been added as major shareholders, and local state-owned assets are concentrated in Beijing and Guangdong.

Yesterday, the six major banks announced their investment in the third phase of the National Big Fund. Specifically,$CCB (00939.HK)$,$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$,$ABC (01288.HK)$und$ICBC (01398.HK)$It will soon invest 21.5 billion yuan and hold 6.25% of the shares;$BANKCOMM (03328.HK)$It is planned to invest 20 billion yuan, accounting for 5.814%;$PSBC (01658.HK)$It is planned to invest 8 billion yuan, accounting for about 2.33%. Bank shareholders hold about 33% of the total shares, and the six banks mentioned above will invest a total of 114 billion yuan.

Compared to the previous two periods, in the third phase of the National Big Fund, apart from “old faces” such as the Ministry of Finance, Guokai Finance, and Guosheng Group, central enterprises and local state-owned assets such as Beijing and Guangdong became the “main forces” of the third phase of the National Big Fund.

Since this year, the price of memory chips has increased by about 50% compared to the same period last year. According to some reports, the price of memory chips may continue to rise. The contract price for new DRAM memory products is expected to rise 13% to 18% in the second quarter of this year.

According to Shanxi Securities, the upward trend in prices is clear, and storage has entered a new upward cycle. In the future, as operating margins improve due to continued price increases in storage prices, storage vendors are expected to face a double blow from Davis in performance and valuation, and there is plenty of room for a rebound in the industry.
According to a research report released by Northeast Securities, the boom in the memory chip industry has entered an upward channel, and domestic manufacturers can look forward to the future. On the demand side, the Chinese memory chip market is in sync with the global market cycle, and the growth rate is higher than that of the global market. On the supply side, overseas manufacturers have long had an oligopoly, and domestic manufacturers have gradually broken through. Leading companies in the fields of storage modules, niche storage, and memory interface chips have broad room for growth.

Which concept stocks will benefit?

With the formal establishment of the third phase of the National Big Fund, the semiconductor industry welcomed significant benefits. Futu Information sorted out some semiconductor concept stocks for reference by bullies.

Semiconductor companies:$SMIC (00981.HK)$,$HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$,$SHANGHAI FUDAN (01385.HK)$,$CE HUADA TECH (00085.HK)$,$SOLOMON SYSTECH (02878.HK)$;

Semiconductor equipment manufacturers:$ASMPT (00522.HK)$;

Also, if investors don't want to invest in chip stocks, there are also ETFs to choose from:$Global X China Semiconductor ETF (03191.HK)$,$Fubon ICE FactSet Taiwan Core Semiconductor Index ETF (03076.HK)$,$Samsung Bloomberg Global Semiconductor ETF (03132.HK)$,$Global X China Semiconductor ETF (09191.HK)$,$Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF (03119.HK)$.

editor/tolk

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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