Bets that the price of Ethereum will rise further are intensifying after US regulators unexpectedly cleared a key obstacle to the listing of an Ethereum spot ETF, despite doubts about the demand prospects for the product.

According to data compiled by foreign media, this shift by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prompted the second-largest coin to rise 26% in the seven days ending last Sunday, which is its biggest weekly gain since the 2021 cryptocurrency bull market.

Speculators may be thrilled by the record debut of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, which have amassed $59 billion in assets. However, Ethereum is less well-known than Bitcoin, making investors' interest in spot Ethereum ETFs more difficult to analyze.

Additionally, spot Ethereum ETFs have de-staked, the process of maintaining the Ethereum blockchain to earn rewards by staking tokens. Compared to holding tokens, the absence of this feature could dampen people's interest in these funds.

Issuers such as BlackRock Inc. (BlackRock Inc.) and Fidelity Investments (Fidelity Investments) are still required to obtain further approval from the SEC before they can launch their products. The exact timing is unclear. As of press release, Ethereum is hovering around $3,900, while Bitcoin has retreated after hitting the $70,000 mark overnight and is currently trading at $69,300.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a report: “Ethereum still has upside risks, and pullbacks are buying opportunities.”

The chart below summarizes the potential trend of Ethereum after rising 71% this year.

According to data from the Deribit trading platform, the high concentration of call option bets suggests that some traders believe Ethereum will climb to $5,000 or more. Currently, the token's highest record is $4,866, which was set in November 2021.

The gap between the T3 Ethereum Volatility Index (which uses option prices to predict the expected fluctuation of a token over the next 30 days) and a similar indicator for Bitcoin is at least the biggest gap since early 2023. This suggests that speculators expect Ethereum to fluctuate more than the world's largest cryptocurrency.

Some analysts believe that the demand for futures managed by CME Group Inc. (CME Group Inc.) is a window into the interest of US institutions in regulated cryptocurrency investments. The number of open contracts for CME Ethereum futures is increasing, but it is far worse than CME Bitcoin futures. This indicates that institutional participation in Ethereum is low, and may also mean that participation in future Ethereum ETFs is low.

Noelle Acheson (Noelle Acheson), author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” newsletter author, wrote: “Institutional participation is expected to be relatively low when the Ethereum Spot ETF is launched, which indicates that the initial inflow may be disappointing.”

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