On Tuesday local time, the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York will listen to the closing statement of former US President Donald Trump's “celebrity seal fee” case. The court will adjourn the subsequent trial until the jury makes a final ruling.

As an event that has gone down in American history, this case is also the first time in US history that a former president has been charged with criminal charges.

34 criminal charges

As a backdrop to this case, on the eve of the 2016 presidential election, American star Stormi Daniels claimed to reveal her “happy past” with Trump. To stop the incident, Trump's personal attorney Michael Cohen privately paid her a “sealing fee” of $130,000 and reimbursed the Trump Group for this fee.

(Daniels, 45, leaves court, source: social media)

Paying a “sealing fee” is not illegal in the US, but it is a criminal act to conceal or falsify the use of funds during an election campaign. Cohen was sentenced to 3 years in 2018 on charges of tax evasion, bank fraud, and violation of campaign finance laws. Since then, he has continued to be active in public opinion as a core witness against Trump.

Following Cohen's line, New York State prosecutors eventually brought Trump to court, charging him with 34 counts of falsifying business records. Theoretically speaking, each convicted charge would entail up to 4 years in prison, with a maximum cumulative total of 20 years.

The trial is in its final stages

According to the schedule, the case will be closed on Tuesday — Trump's defense team and the New York State Prosecution will spend several hours successively explaining to the 12-member jury how the documents they have submitted in the past few weeks and the witnesses summoned have supported their respective positions. For both teams, this will also be the highlight of their careers.

Once the parties have completed their arguments, the presiding judge in this case, Juan Merchin, will ask the jury to begin discussions on the charges against the former president. The judge said he expected this phase to begin this Wednesday.

The trial of this case began in mid-April of this year. As a result, Trump had to withdraw from election affairs, sit in court during the day, listen to the lengthy trial, and go out to hold campaign rallies at night. Including Cohen and Daniels, the prosecution summoned a total of 20 witnesses in court. The length of testimony reached 50 hours. The Trump team only called 2 witnesses.

In other words, by the end of tomorrow's trial, Trump's life history will be marked by the decisions of these 12 New Yorkers.

What are the results?

According to the New York State judicial system, a jury may decide not guilty, an invalid trial, and guilty (partially guilty).

The first two are easier to explain. If a jury finds Trump not guilty, this would be a complete victory for the former US president. An annulment trial is a bit more complicated. If the jury is unable to agree on whether the defendant is guilty, the judge may annul the trial. In this case, the case may need to re-select a jury and try again.

The most dramatic would be the conviction. If convicted of even one crime, Trump would become the first former president in US history to be convicted, while setting a record for “felons participating in the final presidential election.”

According to the judicial system, assuming conviction, Trump will remain free until the sentencing hearing arranged by Judge Merzin. Moreover, Trump will definitely appeal the guilty verdict, which means that the trial process will take at least several months. So the scene of Trump being handcuffed and taken out of court is unlikely to be seen this year at least.

For Judge Merchin, there is also a great degree of freedom in the final sentence. Judge Merchin may sentence him to a fine, suspended sentence, or home supervision, and of course, to a term of imprisonment. The US media also bluntly stated that, based on Trump's 77-year-old age and no criminal record, and that these charges are all non-violent crimes, it is unlikely that a judge will send the former president and this year's election candidate to jail.

Considering that the US Secret Service will provide lifelong security protection to every former president, if Trump goes to jail, Special Intelligence Agency agents will also need to go to jail to protect him.

Will it affect the election?

First, the US Constitution has very few eligibility requirements for presidential candidates; in particular, it does not prohibit candidates with criminal records. So even if Trump actually ends up in jail, it won't affect his appearance on the November ballot.

But the guilty verdict may affect his election. Although Trump is leading the polls in most swing states, the polls also showed that 53% of swing state voters would not vote for a convicted Trump.

Finally, there is a very remote question. Assuming Trump is convicted and successfully elected President of the United States at the same time, he cannot be exempted from being convicted at the state level. The election interference case he faced in Georgia was a similar situation. Regarding the other two federal charges, whether Trump can exempt himself from his conviction is also a very novel legal challenge, which is likely to trigger a great discussion among constitutional law scholars.

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