To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Align Technology (NASDAQ:ALGN) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Align Technology:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.16 = US$677m ÷ (US$6.2b - US$2.0b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
Thus, Align Technology has an ROCE of 16%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Medical Equipment industry average of 10% it's much better.
In the above chart we have measured Align Technology's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Align Technology .
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Align Technology, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 16% from 34% five years ago. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
What We Can Learn From Align Technology's ROCE
To conclude, we've found that Align Technology is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. Unsurprisingly then, the total return to shareholders over the last five years has been flat. All in all, the inherent trends aren't typical of multi-baggers, so if that's what you're after, we think you might have more luck elsewhere.
One more thing to note, we've identified 1 warning sign with Align Technology and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
While Align Technology isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.