share_log

米奥会展(300795):引领中国制造出海远航 境外自办展龙头成长可期

Miao Exhibition (300795): Leading Chinese manufacturers to go overseas and host their own overseas exhibitions can be expected to grow

中金公司 ·  May 27, 2024 12:31

Investment highlights

Covering the Miao Exhibition (300795) for the first time, it was rated to outperform the industry. The target price was 27.00 yuan, corresponding to 24/19x 2024/25e P/E. The specific reasons are as follows:

The exhibition industry grew steadily after the epidemic, and “scale effect advantage+healthy cash flow level” shaped potential.

1) The global exhibition industry is gradually recovering as offline activities become more and more normal after the pandemic. Stax previously estimated the global exhibition industry market size to be about US$26.5 billion in 23 years (recovering to about 95% in 2019), and is expected to surpass the pre-pandemic market and surpass US$30 billion in 2024. 2) Focusing on the industrial chain dimension, the supply of upstream pavilions in China is quite adequate, and there is still a gap compared to before the epidemic; midstream exhibitions are diverse, leading overseas exhibitors, and the domestic exhibition market is scattered but gradually concentrated; downstream exhibitors are in rich industries and exhibitions with strong brand power or are more favored by exhibitors. We believe that the exhibition industry chain is quite lengthy, and that midstream exhibitors play a central role in actively connecting diverse upstream and downstream participants. 3) The two core characteristics of the exhibition industry highlight its unique advantages. Feature 1: The scale effect opens up profit margins, and marginal revenue from exhibitions may continue to rise as the number of booths increases; characteristic 2: Under the “prepay first, then participate” model, the cash flow of exhibition companies is generally healthy.

Miao Exhibition: Promoting Chinese manufacturing overseas and shaping the leading power of overseas exhibitions. 1) Core competitiveness: On the one hand, China's manufacturing overseas momentum is strong (data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's total exports to the “Belt and Road” countries reached 10.7 trillion yuan in 23, an increase of 6.9%, accounting for about 45.1% of total exports). The brand effect of the company's self-hosted overseas exhibition brand effect and the two major first-mover advantages of overseas resources, we believe that it may effectively weaken the difficulty of overseas exhibitions to a certain extent and continue to strengthen its leading edge; on the other hand, based on the accumulation of digital exhibitions during the pandemic, the company was able to effectively participate in the exhibition to a certain extent. Business and Visitors, and gradually optimize the quality of exhibition services. 2) Future highlights: First, under the relatively stable coverage of the country, the company expanded the scale of individual exhibitions and continued to optimize profits based on the two major channels of internal sales, market development and external cooperation; second, look at the steady transformation of comprehensive exhibitions to a more vertical professional exhibition, and the continuous increase in brand influence.

What is our biggest difference from the market? The market is worried that the profit margin of a single exhibition will increase or that it will be difficult. We believe that based on the continuous expansion of overseas brand influence, the strengthening of sales team capabilities, and the cooperative exhibition model, the company is expected to gradually increase the profit margin of a single exhibition after the scale effect of the single exhibition becomes apparent.

Potential catalysts: Booth sales exceeded expectations; profit margin optimization process exceeded expectations.

Profit forecasting and valuation

We expect the company's 2024/25 EPS to be 1.11/1.39 yuan, CAGR of 30% (2023-2025), and the current stock price corresponds to 18/15x 2024/25e P/E. Referring to comparable company valuations, give the company a target price of 27 yuan, corresponding to 24/19x 2024/25e P/E. Rated to outperform the industry, the current upside is about 34%.

risks

Geopolitical risks; booth sales falling short of expectations; increased competition in overseas exhibition markets, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
Comment Comment · Views 324

Recommended

Write a comment

Statement

This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.