Franchise regulations have become stricter, and 100 billion racetrack consumption has been upgraded. Due to the special nature of goods carried, chemical logistics supply chain services are supervised by various government agencies such as the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce, Customs, and the Ministry of Emergency Management, and the entry barriers are extremely high. According to the Dangerous Chemicals Logistics Branch of the China IoT Federation, the third-party chemical logistics market reached 600 billion yuan in 2020, but the market pattern was scattered, and the top 100 companies in the entire chemical logistics market accounted for only about 3% of the revenue scale. Against the backdrop of stricter regulations, chemical companies are increasingly demanding safety and specialization in logistics. High-quality enterprises with improved safety systems, sound qualifications, and leading scale have profoundly benefited. Revenue has continued to grow at a high rate, and the trend of industry leadership concentration is clear.

Assets are scarce and barriers are high, and the integration of goods and trade is developed collaboratively. Chemical logistics supply chain services mainly revolve around core warehousing resources. High-quality customs supervision warehouses, port warehouses, and park warehouses have regional monopoly characteristics and are natural logistics traffic entrances. As a leader in the domestic chemical supply chain, the company relies on the operating advantages of a safe brand and efficient turnover, continuously integrates industrial chain resources and actively carries out logistics monetization services such as freight forwarding, transportation, and trade around core warehouse resources, further opening up space for growth.

Look at demand in the short term and look at the pattern in the long term. Currently, domestic and foreign chemical inventories are at the end of storage, and the reversal of the inventory cycle is expected to drive upward demand, while the global supply chain disorder also has the potential to drive up freight forwarding prices. In the long run, there is enough room in the chemical logistics market. As an industry leader, the company has the opportunity to seize the opportunity to lay out seven major industrial clusters, with first-mover advantages, scale advantages, and collaborative advantages, which is expected to actively interpret the long-term growth logic of small companies in large markets.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Considering the rising slope of domestic trade recovery and the possibility of an upward trend in foreign trade, the company's EPS for 24-26 is expected to be 3.78, 4.68, and 5.52 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to comparable companies, the company is given a PE valuation of 20 times in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 75.60 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The boom in the chemical industry falls short of expectations, mergers and acquisitions fall short of expectations, operation of new mergers and acquisitions assets falls short of expectations, production safety risks, risk of unrenewed operating qualifications, etc.