The HIV drug market continues to expand, and the innovative drug Enomitide is expected to expand further. The company is an innovative pharmaceutical company integrating drug R&D, production, and sales. It focuses on building R&D pipelines in the fields of anti-AIDS, anti-inflammatory, and stroke, focusing on the anti-HIV anti-virus field and the human protein field.
Benefiting from the continued expansion of the HIV market, sales of the company's innovative anti-HIV drugs, enovirin tablets and enomide tablets initially started in 2023, and are expected to expand further in the future. Meanwhile, in November 2023, the company submitted marketing license applications for new indications of enovirin tablets and enomide tablets (for people infected with HIV-1) to the Drug Evaluation Center of the State Drug Administration and were accepted. We are optimistic about the advantages and competitiveness of the company's new HIV drugs. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 5.59 billion yuan, 9.34 billion yuan, and 1.259 billion yuan, respectively, up 35.8%, 67.2%, and 34.7% year-on-year. EPS is -0.08, 0.02 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PS of 11.1, 6.6, and 4.9 times, respectively. It is covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
The total number of people infected with HIV continues to rise, the health insurance drug market has broad prospects, and the total number of people infected with HIV globally and in China is still growing. The continued rise in the detection rate of people infected with HIV, the treatment rate of confirmed cases, and the virus suppression rate of treated patients may increase the demand for anti-HIV drugs. As of 2022, China reported 1,23,000 surviving HIV-infected people. The national free anti-HIV drug catalogue is being updated slowly, and the size of the medical insurance+self-funded anti-HIV drug market is expanding year by year. According to the China Business Intelligence Network, China's health insurance+ self-funded anti-HIV drugs are expected to be around US$240 million in 2022. The health insurance drug market has broad prospects, providing new opportunities for HIV drugs newly entering the medical insurance catalogue.
The first 3-in-1 compound preparation in China, the Enomil replacement tablet, is expected to further release the third-generation non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (nNRTIs) in Anoverin tablets against HIV. It was approved domestically in June 2021 and recommended by income guidelines and medical insurance in that year. According to the company's announcement, the company sold 24.74 million yuan of enovirin tablets in 2023, and the corresponding sales volume for that year was 59,386 bottles. The compound Enomil replacement was approved for marketing in December 2022 and covered by medical insurance at the end of 2023. Compared with the head-to-head trial of Acorn Protid tablets, Enomil tablets can maintain virus suppression for a long time and are quite effective, and the incidence of adverse reactions is low. According to the company's announcement, Enomi replacement tablets sold a total of 488.44 million yuan in 2023. As the company's promotion efforts continue to increase, we expect a further increase in drug sales.
Risk warning: Risk of changes in industry policies, sales of new HIV drugs falling short of expectations, and changes in the competitive landscape.