Recommended logic: 1) Continued promotion of the country's policies to promote consumption and steady growth will further stimulate market vitality and consumption potential. In 2023, automobile production and sales will increase by 11.6% and 12%, respectively. 2) The steady increase in sales volume of Changan Automobile will directly increase the demand for logistics services and provide more business opportunities for Changan Minsheng Logistics. In 2023, Changan Automobile Group achieved +8.8% year-on-year vehicle sales, a record high of nearly six years. 3) The company promotes green, intelligent and digital transformation and expands service boundaries.
Demand in the downstream automobile market is increasing, and the automotive logistics industry is expected to gradually recover. In 2023, automobile production and sales reached 301.61 million units and 30.94 million units, respectively, up 11.6% and 12% year on year; in 2023, China exported 4.91 million vehicles, up 57.9% year on year. As the country's policy to promote consumption and steady growth continues to advance, it will further stimulate market vitality and consumption potential. At the same time, the continuous expansion of the logistics market provides valuable opportunities for vehicle logistics companies to develop their business.
As Changan Automobile's logistics service provider, Changan Minsheng Logistics undertakes Changan Automobile's vehicle logistics and parts logistics business. In 2023, Changan Automobile Group achieved sales volume of 2.553 million vehicles, a record high of nearly six years. The cumulative sales volume of autonomous passenger vehicles was 1.597 million units, +14.9% year-on-year, and the annual sales volume of its own new energy brand was 474,000 units, +74.8% year-on-year. Changan Automobile's cumulative overseas sales volume in 2023 reached 358,000 vehicles, up 43.9% year on year. Among them, exports of its own brands reached a record high of more than 230,000 vehicles, and overseas revenue exceeded 20 billion yuan, +53.1% over the same period last year. The scale and profit increased rapidly.
Promote green, intelligent and digital transformation and expand service boundaries. Based on the automobile logistics market, the company provides customers with intelligent logistics integrated customized services that can be trusted with confidence through integrated capabilities for public, water, and rail multimodal transport, and the use and upgrading of information management and operation big data throughout the warehousing, transportation and settlement process. Actively promote the construction of an online freight platform and strive to build a freight version of a “taxi platform”, that is, to build an automobile ecosystem with functions such as freight, payment and settlement, and financial services, that is, a Chongqing municipal online freight demonstration platform.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: In 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 72.759 million yuan, 82,146 million yuan, 905.86 million yuan, EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.56 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 5 times, 5 times, and 4 times. We believe that the stable and healthy development of the automobile industry will drive the automobile logistics industry to continue to stabilize and improve. As a logistics enterprise with an automobile manufacturing background, Changan Minsheng Logistics has an innate advantage in obtaining business resources. For the first time, it has been covered, and given a “holding” rating.
Risk warning: risk of global economic and domestic macroeconomic recession, risk of customer dependency, risk of rising procurement, transportation and logistics support costs, etc.