Incident: Kexon Pharmaceuticals announced the 2024 restricted stock incentive plan (draft). The number of restricted shares to be granted under this incentive plan accounts for 1.90% of the company's total share capital. The total number of incentives to be awarded is 147 people, accounting for 14.05% of the company's total number of employees (as of December 31, 2023). The grant price is 12 yuan/share, accounting for 64.83% of the average trading price for the first 20 trading days. The assessment year for this incentive plan is the two fiscal years 2024-2025. The overseas sales revenue and the cumulative number of overseas registration approvals were assessed. The details are as follows: using 2023 as the performance base, the export revenue growth rate in 2024 is 50-100%, that is, the export revenue reached 2.07-276 million, and the cumulative number of overseas registration approvals obtained is 15; in 2025, the export sales growth rate is 200-400%, that is, the export revenue reached 414-690 million, and the total number of overseas registration approvals obtained is 35.
Export sales are the assessment goal, which is conducive to the smooth implementation of the company's “internationalization” strategy. According to the company's announcement, after more than 20 years of development, the company's overseas commercialization platform has covered more than 40 countries, covering all emerging market countries with a population of over 100 million and a GDP ranking of the top 30. Through cooperation with well-known domestic pharmaceutical companies such as Zhengda Tianqing, Changzhou Pharmaceutical, and Xinhua Pharmaceuticals to quickly supplement the export product pipeline, it has introduced a total of 13 products, and has created 7 products with full treatment cycle coverage and all types in the field of breast cancer. Infliximab, besubalizumab, albumin paclitol and other products have been completed one after another. Field audits in Indonesia, the European Union and other countries have obtained GMP certificates. The company is speeding up overseas sales of these products and striving to increase sales of new overseas products by 2024. Overseas sales revenue is an important source of the company's new revenue in the future. At the same time, using the number of overseas registration approvals as one of the assessment indicators, it can directly reflect the company's important phased business results. This incentive plan is conducive to fully mobilizing the enthusiasm of the company's employees and ensuring the achievement of export sales revenue and the smooth progress of the company's internationalization strategy. The target of this incentive also includes some foreign employees, who are included in this incentive plan, which can stabilize the existing foreign backbone and continue to attract outstanding talents.
Optimistic about the company's overseas business and maintains a “buy” rating. According to the company's current overseas review progress, we expect that the company will export 4 products in the second half of the year, which will drive performance growth. In terms of profit forecasting, we maintain our profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025. We expect net profit of 2024-2025 to be 0.08 million and 108 million, respectively. Considering that the products introduced by the company in the second half of 2024 began to be sold in overseas markets, their contribution to profit was significant in 2025, so the profit in 2025 improved significantly compared to 2024. With the addition of the 2026 profit forecast, net profit due to mother in 2026 is estimated to be 205 million, and the current market value corresponds to 2025-2026 PE, which is 36 times and 19 times, respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of delays in overseas review progress, risk of sales volume falling short of expectations, risk of exchange rate fluctuations.