Source: Zhitong Finance

Until now, the diet pills market has been dominated by$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$The GLP-1 drug tizepatide (also known as Zepbound) and$Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO.US)$It is dominated by the GLP-1 drug semaglutide (also known as Wegovy). Both companies have spent years developing drugs to treat diabetes and obesity, and they have multiple next-generation drug candidates.

However, according to many analysts, the “Nolie” dispute pattern may be broken in the near future, and many pharmaceutical companies are eyeing this lucrative market.

Currently, there are at least eight companies' candidate diet pills in the mid to late stages of development, including$Pfizer (PFE.US)$,$Amgen (AMGN.US)$,$Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US)$,$Altimmune (ALT.US)$,$Structure Therapeutics (GPCR.US)$and Boehringer-Ingelheim (Boehringer-Ingelheim). There are also several companies' drug candidates in pre-clinical or early development, such as$ROCHE HOLDING AG (RHHBY.US)$.

As more players join, it also raises the question: Which manufacturer will launch the next blockbuster diet pill?

Seeking Alpha biomedical analysts Edmund Ingham, Stephen Ayers, and Terry Chrisomalis assessed this.

Stephen Ayers believes that the two market leaders, Eli Lilly and Novo Nord, will successfully launch the next major drug because both companies have decades of experience in chronic diseases such as diabetes, and their expertise cannot be underestimated. Furthermore, both companies have notable three-phase assets. For example, Eli Lilly is testing orforglipron, a daily oral GLP-1 agonist.

Edmund Ingham also believes that the answer may be Lilly and Novo Nordisk, who pioneered the “GLP-1 agonist” era. He said Eli Lilly's retatrutide, oral orforglipron, and Novo Nordisk's amycretin all produced promising early data on weight loss.

Ingham also notes that the Viking Therapeutics candidate VK2735 achieved an average weight loss of about 15% in just 13 weeks in a small study of 37 early patients. Viking has also developed an oral drug candidate that helps patients lose more than 5% of their body weight in just 28 days..

In addition, Amgen's Mari Tide may face approval challenges — management promised to release some exciting Phase II trial data soon. Pfizer said the company is currently looking for three drug candidates for clinical research. Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche is also undergoing early clinical research on two drug candidates. Other choices include New Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF.US) /Boehringer Ingelheim's candidate survodutide and Altimmune's PemviduDide.

Terry Chrisomalis said he believes the next diet drug to enter the market will be Novo Nordisk's CagrisEMA because it is a combination of the GLP-1 agonist semaglutide and another drug, Cagrilintide.

Chrisomalis said semaglutide provides a sense of satiety as a GLP-1 agonist, and cagrilintide may have a superposition effect in this feeling of fullness because this molecule is a long-acting dipancreatin analog with blood sugar control functions. Therefore, it is believed that the combination of the two may eventually stimulate further weight loss.

Most importantly, a phase III trial is already underway to compare CAGrisema to Eli Lilly's ZepBound. Allegedly, if Cagrilintide enters the market, it will compete directly with Zepbound.

edit/lambor