Roshni Sharma (Roshni Sharma) is one of many American travelers who chose to abandon traditional road travel and switch to airplanes this year's Memorial Day long weekend.

This 27-year-old nurse from Alexandria, Virginia usually drives home to her parents in Pennsylvania on Memorial Day, but this year she and her husband are flying to Austin, Texas to visit a friend.

Sharma said, “If we go to Texas by car, it would take two or three days each way, and our entire trip was only two or three days, so it's faster to fly.”

Choices like Sharma are expected to reshape the summer refined oil market, and the increase in demand for aviation fuel will replace gasoline as the main growth point. According to the American Automobile Association (American Automobile Association), it is estimated that the number of passengers flying on the Memorial Day weekend this year may be the highest in nearly 20 years. This will be 4.8% higher than last year and 9% higher than 2019.

As Memorial Day weekend kicks off the peak driving season in the US, broader demand for crude oil is expected to pick up over the next few weeks.

J.P. Morgan's global commodity research team said earlier this month that from the end of April to the end of August, global crude oil consumption will increase by 2.8 million barrels per day. The company said in an email on Friday that demand for aviation fuel will increase by 430,000 barrels per day during this period.

According to US government data, based on a four-week average, aviation fuel demand has soared to its highest value since 2019. In the week ending May 17, US passenger traffic is up about 1.5% from a week ago, and foreign media expect passenger traffic to continue to grow until the end of this month.

“We believe aviation fuel is the fuel that is growing the fastest in global demand,” said Austin Lin, an analyst at Wood Mackens.

He said that demand for aviation fuel in the US is likely to increase by about 5% in 2024, and the growth rate of global consumption may increase slightly.

This trend may give crude oil bulls some relief. They hope that increased consumption will stimulate a rebound in oil prices in the summer and free crude oil from the narrow range where risks in the Middle East subside.

OPEC+ will meet on June 2 and is expected to extend production cuts, which will provide another potential catalyst.

The strong performance of aviation fuel contrasts sharply with the sluggish outlook for gasoline. Although demand for automobile fuel in the US increased last week, it is still at a two-year seasonal low.

J.P. Morgan predicts that global gasoline demand will drop by an average of about 100,000 barrels per day in 2025.

Last week, the sluggish economic situation prompted bullish gasoline bets to fall to their lowest level in six months as fund managers failed to see a return on gasoline investments in spring. Traders still expect a seasonal boost in gasoline prices, but this expectation is likely to weaken as consumers lose patience with oil prices.

Meanwhile, average flight times have increased and passenger numbers have increased as restrictions related to the pandemic have been lifted, encouraging more international travel. Analysts say this is enough to make up for the increased efficiency of jet engines and reduced fuel consumption.

American Automobile Association spokesman Aixa Diaz (Aixa Diaz) said that since the pandemic, consumers have preferred to spend their money on experiences, which has prompted more and more travelers to spend their money on once-in-a-lifetime trips to Europe or Asia.

Wood Mackenzs' Lin believes aviation fuel demand will benefit from this cultural shift in the long run.

“People don't feel much pain when it comes to spending,” Lin said. “The post-pandemic consumer boom had no consequences. Nothing bad happened, so people adapted.”

Editor/Somer