#黄金技术分析 #24K99讯 The gold market experienced a boom this week. The fluctuation range reached nearly $125, and ended this week's trading with a huge decline. FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer recently wrote an article analyzing this week's gold price trend and looking forward to next week's outlook.

Sengezer pointed out that after falling below 2,400 US dollars/ounce, the price of gold fell sharply, ending two consecutive weeks of upward momentum. Looking at recent technology, the bullish momentum is being lost. US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials may drive the trend of gold next week.

Spot gold closed the week plummeted by $81.07, or 3.36%, to $2333.43 per ounce, the biggest weekly decline since early December.

The price of gold hit a high of 2450.11 US dollars/ounce this week and fell to a low of 2325.35 US dollars/ounce.

Sengezer said that after hitting a record high of 2,450 US dollars/ounce at the beginning of this week, the price of gold was deeply adjusted and extended after falling below 2,400 US dollars/ounce on Wednesday. Comments from Federal Reserve policy makers and US PCE price data for April due to be released next week may affect the price trend of gold.

What actually happened in the gold market this week?

Sengezer pointed out that the news that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (Ebrahim Raisi) and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (Hossein Amir-Abdollahian) died in a helicopter crash led to an escalation of geopolitical tension at the beginning of this week. As a result, gold benefited from safe-haven funds and hit a record high of $2,450 per ounce in early Asian trading on Monday. However, as market sentiment began to improve later in the day, gold prices retraced most of the day's gains on Monday, closing only slightly higher.

On Tuesday, in the absence of high-impact data, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers helped the dollar remain resilient against its rivals, making it difficult for gold to gain a foothold. Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Raphael Bostic (Raphael Bostic) said that the Federal Reserve must be cautious about initial interest rate changes, adding that interest rate cuts may be needed later to avoid stimulating pent-up investment and other spending enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (Christopher Waller) pointed out that he needs to see several more months of good inflation data before he can confidently support monetary policy relaxation.

Gold prices continued to fall on Wednesday, pressured by a recovery in US Treasury yields. After falling below the critical $2,400 per ounce, technical sellers took action, causing gold to fall lower. Later in the day, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's April 30 to May 1 policy meeting showed that some policy makers were willing to reconsider raising interest rates if necessary, which prevented the gold price from recovering.

According to data released by S&P Global (S&P Global) on Thursday, private sector business activity in the US expanded at its strongest rate in more than two years in May. The US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May rose to 54.4 from 51.3 in April, and the service sector PMI and manufacturing PMI rose to 54.8 and 50.9, respectively. Commenting on the survey results, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P Global Market Intelligence), said, “After two months of slow growth, the recovery of the US economy accelerated again. Preliminary PMI data shows that May saw the fastest expansion in more than two years.” “These data put the US economy back on track for another strong GDP growth in the second quarter,” he added. After the PMI data was released, the US dollar continued to strengthen, and gold fell to its lowest level in two weeks in the US market, below $2,330 per ounce.

On Friday, a mild improvement in risk sentiment limited the dollar's gains and helped gold find a foothold before the weekend.

The gold market will focus on more Fed remarks and key inflation data next week

Sengezer said that in the first half of next week, the US economy will not release any data with significant impact. As a result, market participants will keep a close eye on what the Fed's policymakers say.

The CME (CME) “Federal Reserve Watch Tool” currently shows that the market expects the possibility that the Fed will keep the policy interest rate unchanged in September is close to 50%.

Sengezer pointed out that if Federal Reserve officials suggest they may wait until the end of the year and look for favorable inflation data for several months in a row before lowering policy interest rates, market positions indicate that the dollar may strengthen further and drag down the price of gold.

Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the revised gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter. A positive correction to this data is likely to support the US dollar.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the April Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index next Friday. This index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. The core PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in March. Sengezer said that if core PCE increases 0.4% or higher month-on-month in April, it may boost the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not change policy interest rates in September and boost the dollar by the end of next week. On the other hand, if the index rises by 0.2% or less, it may revive optimism about the progress of declining inflation and push the price of gold higher.

How will gold be traded next week?

Sengezer said that on the daily gold chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator fell to 50, and the price of gold fell to the lower limit of the upper channel since mid-April, reflecting the loss of bullish momentum.

As shown in the chart, on the downside, Sengezer points out that the short-term support level for gold prices is at 2,320 US dollars/ounce (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), followed by 2310-2,300 US dollars/ounce (50-day simple moving average, psychological level) and 2,260 US dollars/ounce (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)

On the other hand, Sengezer added that $2,400 per ounce (psychological level, static level) constituted a strong resistance level. If this resistance were to be broken, then the price of gold would be blocked at 2,440 US dollars/ounce to 2,450 US dollars/ounce (midpoint of the ascending channel, historical high).