Focus on CHK and US stocks

The major correction in Hong Kong stock funds. How long can Beishui last? How will the market develop in the future?

券商中國 · May 27 07:34

今年的港股产品已成为许多“一拖多”明星大佬赢回业绩和面子的核心所在，不少顶流基金经理年内最佳业绩均在港股产品上，但随着多只关键重仓股的大幅回调，港股主题基金的净值跳水也引发基金持有人的关注，港股基金的反攻趋势结束了吗？

对此不少基金公司人士认为，港股市场正从前期的资金驱动向业绩驱动转变，港股自4月中旬累积了比较大的升幅，过去数年形成的熊市思维使港股风险偏好的改善不会一蹴而就，预计今年港股行情有望螺旋式上涨。

港股基金回血疑云再起

刚刚过去的一周，股票型、混合型和QDII基金的周跌幅最大产品皆来自重仓港股的基金，其中股票型和混合型产品因重仓港股医药赛道，单周最大跌幅均超9%，甚至不少港股主题产品单日大跌近5个点。

尤其是在5月24日，公募基金抱团的创新药企业康方生物盘中突然暴跌达44%，在公司管理层当日否认临床数据不及预期后，最终收盘仍有22.89%的跌幅。这一罕见的股价波动影响颇为广泛，康方生物截至今年第一季度末有多达59只基金重仓持有，其中持仓比例最多的产品为QDII基金亚军产品——大成基金旗下的大成中国优势混合QDII基金。此外，当前的QDII冠军基金的大成港股精选混合QDII亦重仓康方生物，将该股列为第二大重仓品种。此外，明星基金经理葛兰管理的中欧医疗创新基金也重仓康方生物仓位约5%，后者为葛兰基金的第六大重仓股。

此外，基金抱团的互联网赛道股也开始显现“高处不胜寒”的走势。基金重仓股粉笔公司在宣布回购最高达3亿港元后依然连续下行，并在5月24日出现第七跌；34只基金抱团的美图公司，在5月24日完成了十连跌；40只基金抱团的哔哩哔哩，在5月24日披露财报后亦大跌11.27%。

这一暴跌可能削弱港股主题基金霸屏QDII基金的格局，目前仍位列QDII业绩前两位的大成港股精选混合、大成中国优势两只产品，亦可能存在被拉下冠亚军宝座的可能。目前，上述两只产品的年内收益率分别为22.39%、20.48%，但因为QDII的净值披露节奏相对滞后，上述收益率仅截至5月23日，尚未包括核心重仓股康方生物单日暴跌22.89%的影响。

港股成基金弹性来源

尽管港股市场存在巨大波动，1只股票暴跌甚至能吞噬整个产品净值四五个点，但另一方面，港股也是基金经理在市场反弹中获得超额收益的关键弹性来源。

尤其是在“一拖多”的明星基金经理身上，港股主题产品已成为这些明星基金经理提高“业绩声望”的核心来源。券商中国记者注意到，顶流基金经理张坤目前管理的4只基金产品中，重仓港股的易方达亚洲精选基金表现最佳。截至目前，张坤所管的易方达亚洲精选、易方达蓝筹精选、易方达优质企业、易方达优质精选等4只基金的年内收益率分别为17%、5.6%、5.53%、4.01%，根据今年第一季度基金报告显示，易方达亚洲精选基金是张坤唯一一只持有港股仓位达60%的产品。

此外，南方基金首席投资官史博、前海开源副总经理曲扬在今年市场中的最佳业绩也来自港股主题产品，在史博管理的多只产品中，南方港股创新视野基金、南方兴润价值基金、南方新能源产业基金的年内收益率分别为13.34%、12.60%、7.95%。曲扬管理的沪港深价值精选、前海开源优质企业基金、前海开源中国稀缺资产混合基金，今年收益率分别为11.07%、10.27%、1.63%，显而易见的是，重仓港股的产品为“一拖多”的明星基金经理在今年的市场中赢回不少面子。

甚至是排名全市场基金四强的多只“A股基金”，其弹性来源相当程度上是因为港股仓位。基金经理邹立虎管理的景顺长城周期优选基金、王凌霄管理的博时成长精选混合基金，今年以来的收益率分别已达到29.91%、29.87%，根据披露的第一季度末仓位数据显示，上述两只“A股基金”的港股仓位比例分别为32.82%、34.04%。

基金增配人手深挖港股机会

值得一提的是，不少A股基金产品在增聘基金经理时频频出现港股背景选手，亦显示出挖掘港股市场的潜力已成为当前公募抓取今年市场投资机会的关键。

摩根世代趋势混合发起式基金日前发布公告显示，增聘基金经理赵隆隆为该只基金的基金经理，赵隆隆同时为摩根香港精选港股通的基金经理。富国消费升级基金在增聘基金经理时也选择一位管理过沪港深产品的选手，而根据增聘之前的基金仓位分布显示，富国消费升级基金截至今年3月末的港股仓位不足2%，而选择一位具有港股投资背景的基金经理，或意味着该产品的港股仓位有望大幅度提升。

业内人士也认为，随着新发A股基金和港股主题基金进入港股市场，后续港股的流动性有望进一步得到公募南下资金的支撑，截至目前年内已有超2100亿港元资金通过港股通的渠道进入港股市场。

关于港股市场近期出现的走势，摩根士丹利基金人士强调，港股前期走势推断是资金回流导致，港元和人民币相对稳定，汇率风险小，这导致此前流向亚洲其他市场的资金回流。因此过去一段时间A股及港股主要为资金驱动，但之后的走势中基本面驱动力可能会显著增强，这意味着进一步推动港股上行需要实打实的业绩支撑。近期公布4月份制造业PMI数据，尽管有所回落但维持在荣枯线之上，价格指数继续上行，这对未来起到较强的指引作用；上市公司面临的压力主要来自于价格端，如果价格持续回升，业绩将出现大幅改善。

博时港股通基金经理赵宪成认为，二季度海外因素仍具有较多不确定性，美元兑商品的弱化将导致资源品价格的上涨，通胀的压力也更加显现，目前加息的时间持续推迟，这将一定程度影响港股走势。但中期来看，港股低估值开始吸引配置资金，叠加部分个股有机会带来反弹，2024年二季度的港股投资观察点包括：国内经济在出口与消费的稳健复苏改善状况，以及观察地产链的景气，海外则需要观察货币政策变化日本央行加息等等。

亦有基金人士认为，这一轮港股的上升其中一个原因是憧憬减息，但现在减息预期又再度降温，加上港股自4月中旬累积了比较大的升幅，现在的下跌可先视作借势回调，也可为日后的上升作健康的整固，今年港股行情有望螺旋式上涨，大涨之后6月—7月或有震荡，过去数年形成的熊市思维使得港股风险偏好的改善不会一蹴而就，而港股行情第二阶段的驱动力，将使核心资产基本面改善超海外投资者预期。

编辑/Jeffrey

This year's Hong Kong stock products have become the core of many “one drag and many” star bosses to win back their performance and face. Many top fund managers performed their best in Hong Kong stock products during the year, but with the sharp correction of many key stocks, the net worth dive of Hong Kong stock theme funds has also attracted the attention of fund holders. Is the counteroffensive trend of Hong Kong stock funds over?

In response, many fund company sources believe that the Hong Kong stock market is shifting from being capital-driven in the early period to being performance-driven. Hong Kong stocks have accumulated a relatively large increase since mid-April. The bear market mentality formed in the past few years has made the improvement in risk appetite in Hong Kong stocks not happen overnight. It is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will spiral upward this year.

Hong Kong stock funds are back in blood and doubts resurface

In the past week, the products with the biggest weekly decline in equity, hybrid, and QDII funds all came from funds heavily harboring Hong Kong stocks. Among them, equity and hybrid products all saw the biggest weekly decline of more than 9% due to heavy positions on the Hong Kong stock pharmaceutical circuit, and even many Hong Kong stock themed products plummeted by nearly 5 points in a single day.

In particular, on May 24, Kang Fang Biotech, an innovative drug company formed by a public fund, suddenly plummeted by 44% in the market. After the company's management denied that the clinical data fell short of expectations on the same day, there was still a 22.89% decline at the end of the day. The impact of this rare share price fluctuation was quite widespread. As of the end of the first quarter of this year, Kangfang Biotech had heavy holdings in 59 funds. Among them, the product with the highest holding ratio was the QDII Fund's runner-up product, the Dacheng China Advantage Hybrid QDII Fund under Dacheng Fund. In addition, the current QDII Hong Kong Stock Select Hybrid QDII of the QDII Champion Fund is also heavily invested in Kangfang Biotech, ranking this stock as the second most heavily traded product. In addition, the China-Europe Medical Innovation Fund managed by Star Fund manager Gülen also holds about 5% of Kangfang Biotech's position. The latter is Gülen Fund's sixth largest stock.

Furthermore, the Internet circuit stocks organized by the Foundation have also begun to show a trend of “being high above the cold”. The fund-heavy stock Chalk Company continued to decline even after announcing repurchases of up to HK$300 million, and experienced a seventh decline on May 24; 34 fund groups, Meitu, completed 10 consecutive declines on May 24; Bilibili, a group of 40 funds, also plummeted 11.27% after disclosing financial reports on May 24.

This sharp decline may weaken the pattern of Hong Kong equity-themed funds dominating the QDII fund. Currently, Dacheng Hong Kong Stock Select Blend and Dacheng China's dominant two products are still among the top two in QDII performance. There is also a possibility that they will be dragged down as the champion and runner-up. Currently, the annual yield of the above two products is 22.39% and 20.48%, respectively, but due to the relative lag in the pace of QDII's net worth disclosure, the above yields only ended May 23, and did not include the impact of the 22.89% drop in a single day by the core heavy stock Kangfang Biotech.

Hong Kong stocks are a flexible source of funds

Although there are huge fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market, and a sharp drop in one stock can even devour the net value of the entire product by four or five points, on the other hand, Hong Kong stocks are also a key source of flexibility for fund managers to obtain excess income during the market rebound.

In particular, for “one to many” star fund managers, Hong Kong stock themed products have become the core source for these star fund managers to enhance their “performance reputation.” A Chinese brokerage reporter noticed that among the 4 fund products currently managed by top fund manager Zhang Kun, the E-Fangda Asia Select Fund, which heavily stocks Hong Kong stocks, performed the best. Up to now, the four funds managed by Zhang Kun, including E-Fangda Asia Select, E-Fangda Blue Chip Select, E-Fangda Premium Enterprise, and E-Fangda Premium Select, have annual returns of 17%, 5.6%, 5.53%, and 4.01%, respectively. According to the fund report for the first quarter of this year, E-Fangda Asia Select Fund is the only product where Zhang Kun holds 60% of Hong Kong stock positions.

In addition, the best performance of China Southern Fund Chief Investment Officer Shi Bo and Qianhai Open Source Deputy General Manager Qu Yang in this year's market also came from Hong Kong stock themed products. Among the many products managed by Shi Bo, the annual returns of China Southern Hong Kong Stock Innovation Vision Fund, Southern Xingrun Value Fund, and Southern New Energy Industry Fund were 13.34%, 12.60%, and 7.95%, respectively. The Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Value Selection, Qianhai Open Source High Quality Enterprise Fund, and the Qianhai Open Source China Scarce Asset Hybrid Fund have yields of 11.07%, 10.27%, and 1.63%, respectively, managed by Qu Yang. What is clear is that star fund managers who are heavily involved in Hong Kong stocks are “one drag more” have won back quite a bit of face in this year's market.

There are even many “A-share funds” that rank among the top four funds in the market. The source of flexibility is due in large part to Hong Kong stock positions. The Invesco Great Wall Cycle Choice Fund managed by fund manager Zou Lihu and the Bosch Growth Select Hybrid Fund managed by Wang Lingxiao have yielded 29.91% and 29.87% respectively since this year. According to the disclosed position data at the end of the first quarter, the Hong Kong stock position ratios of the above two “A-share funds” were 32.82% and 34.04%, respectively.

Fund allocates additional manpower to dig deeper into Hong Kong stock opportunities

It is worth mentioning that many A-share fund products frequently feature players with Hong Kong stock backgrounds when hiring additional fund managers, which also shows that tapping the potential of the Hong Kong stock market has become the key to seizing investment opportunities in the current public offering in this year's market.

According to an announcement recently issued by the Morgan Generation Trend Hybrid Initiation Fund, the fund manager Zhao Longlong was added as the fund manager of this fund, and Zhao Longlong is also the fund manager of Morgan Hong Kong Select Hong Kong Stock Connect. When hiring additional fund managers, the Wells Fargo Consumer Upgrade Fund also selected a player who has managed Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen products. According to the distribution of fund positions before the increase, Wells Fargo Consumer Upgrade Fund's Hong Kong stock position as of the end of March this year was less than 2%, and choosing a fund manager with a background in Hong Kong stock investment may mean that the product's Hong Kong stock position is expected to increase dramatically.

Industry insiders also believe that as new A-share funds and Hong Kong stock themed funds enter the Hong Kong stock market, the liquidity of subsequent Hong Kong stocks is expected to be further supported by public funding. Up to now, more than HK$210 billion has entered the Hong Kong stock market through the Hong Kong Stock Connect channel.

Regarding recent trends in the Hong Kong stock market, Morgan Stanley Fund sources stressed that the early trend in Hong Kong stocks was inferred to be due to capital return. The Hong Kong dollar and RMB are relatively stable, and the exchange rate risk is low. This has led to the return of capital previously flowing to other Asian markets. Therefore, in the past period, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were mainly capital-driven, but the fundamental driving force may increase significantly in the future trend, which means that further boosting the upward trend of Hong Kong stocks requires real performance support. The manufacturing PMI data for April was recently released. Despite a decline, it remained above the boom and dry line, and the price index continued to rise, which will play a strong guiding role in the future; the pressure faced by listed companies mainly comes from the price side, and if prices continue to rise, performance will improve dramatically.

Zhao Xiancheng, fund manager of Bosch Hong Kong Stock Connect, believes that there is still a lot of uncertainty about overseas factors in the second quarter. The weakening of the US dollar against commodities will cause the price of resource products to rise, and the pressure of inflation will also become more apparent. The current period of interest rate hikes continues to be delayed, which will affect the trend of Hong Kong stocks to a certain extent. However, in the medium term, undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks has begun to attract allocations, and when combined with some individual stocks, there is an opportunity for a rebound. Observations on Hong Kong stock investment in the second quarter of 2024 include: the steady recovery and improvement of the domestic economy in exports and consumption, as well as observing the boom in the real estate chain. Overseas, it is necessary to observe changes in monetary policy, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, etc.

Some fund sources also believe that one reason for this round of rise in Hong Kong stocks is the expectation of interest rate cuts, but interest rate cuts are now cooling down again. The current decline can first be viewed as a correction or a healthy consolidation of future gains. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to spiral up this year, and there may be shocks from June to July after the sharp rise. The bear market mentality formed over the past few years will make the improvement in risk appetite in Hong Kong stocks not happen overnight, and the driving force of the second phase of the Hong Kong stock market will improve the fundamentals of the core assets beyond the expectations of overseas investors.

Editor/Jeffrey

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