The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that demand for photovoltaics was strong, and module production was flat; in March, the average weekly price of N-type materials was 43 yuan/kg; on May 22, the average weekly price of N-type materials began to accumulate. Prices fell irrationally, but the decline declined slightly; inventories remained high, N-type penetration was weak, and silicon wafer prices continued to bottom out. The latest N-type 182 silicon wafers averaged 1.40 yuan/chip. Different pricing strategies of various manufacturers led to price differentiation, and some manufacturers planned to cut production.

In addition, due to high demand, battery production is increasing, and N-type demand continues to be strong, and profit recovery: domestic centralized projects are progressing slowly and overseas demand fluctuates, component production schedules remained flat month-on-month in May-June, and prices declined slightly: downstream glass prices remained stable, and are expected to fall slightly in June, due to upstream effects; particle manufacturer maintenance affects supply, and particle and film prices remain stable.

Domestic installations increased 35.89% in January-March, with strong demand throughout the year

In January-April, 60.11 GW of installed capacity was added in China, an increase of 24%; National Energy Administration: Green License can only be traded once, valid for 2 years, and written off; Central Bank: supports the issuance of REITs for clean energy, etc. to achieve lower cost financing; Anhui's 19 new policies support the high-quality development of advanced photovoltaics and new energy storage industry clusters; the fourth batch of renewable energy generation subsidy projects was released in '24, with a centralized power generation approval/filing capacity of 3582.5MW. On the demand side, as of May 12, the cumulative bid scale for modules was 105.3 GW, an increase of 74.9%; the winning bid price in April continued to fluctuate, at 0.876 yuan/W, down 1.29% from month to month. In April, the N model accounted for 100%, and as of May 12, the double glass accounted for 89%.

Overseas demand continues to be strong, and component export data is impressive

US companies have officially applied to launch anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Southeast Asian photovoltaic cells; Japan announced 24-25 FiT subsidy standards for residential and industrial solar energy; Malaysia issued a residential photovoltaic subsidy program; Australia will extend the rooftop solar discount program; and India issued draft guidelines for residential rooftop solar subsidies. On the export side, from January to April '24, module exports were 81.8 GW, +25.7% year over year. Exports in April were US$2.67 billion, -12%/-33% YoY. Exports to Europe, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, Poland, South Africa, the US, Spain, and Brazil increased. Demand for module exports was strong from January to April, and overseas installed capacity is expected to increase throughout the year.

Grid-connected production schedules have improved markedly, the Q2 inflection point has been reached, and household storage data is gradually improving month-on-month

The bidding/winning capacity of domestic large reserves in April '24 was 7.1/3.5GWh, -7%/-13% YoY, +4%/-51% month-on-month; the cumulative bidding/winning capacity in January-April '24 was 27.7/23.2 GWh, an increase of 49%/32%. 24q1 added 3.9 GW/10.8 GWh of new energy storage installed in China. Dongwu Securities expects to install 70/92/111 GWh of domestic energy storage in 24/25/26, an increase of 45% in 24, and a CAGR of 30% + in 23-26. In March '24, the US Big Storage added 1.045 GW of installed capacity, +290%/+2812% over the same period; in March '24, the US Big Reserve's reserves were 31.0 GW, a decrease of 2.1%. In April '24, Germany added 307 MWh of energy storage, -26%/+10% compared to the same period; of these, the installed capacity for household energy storage increased 267 MWH, -26%/0% compared to the same period last month. The policy side continues to promote the integration of new energy storage standards into the grid, optimize scheduling and application, and steadily advance project planning and investment in various provinces.

Investment advice:

Recommended inverters that benefit most from energy storage and strong overseas demand: Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Deye (605117.SH), Hemai (688032.SH), Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), Shenghong (300693.SZ), Goodway (688390.SH), Costa (002518.SZ), Yuneng Technology (), and focus on Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ). 688348.SH

Follett (601865.SH), Foster (603806.SH), CITB (688408.SH), Polymeric Materials (), Dike Co., Ltd. (300842.SZ), and Yubang New Materials (301266.SZ) are leading auxiliary materials with a defined layout and obvious leading edge. 688503.SH

Integrated components with cost advantages and overseas channel advantages include Jingke Energy (688223.SH), Artes (688472.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), Tianhe Solar (688599.SH), Longji Green Energy (), Tongwei Co., Ltd. (), and battery silicon leader Junda (002865.SZ), Aixu (), TCL Central (002129.SZ), etc. 601012.SH 600438.SH 600732.SH

The value of Shenyuan Sea has increased, and the leading players are Hengqiang Cable Oriental Cable (603606.SH) and Hengtong Optoelectronics (600487.SH), and focus on Qifan Cable (605222.SH).

Strong demand from Shuanghai and a jump in the share of conduit frames brought about structurally optimized towers Tianshun Wind Energy (002531.SZ), Taisheng Wind Energy (300129.SZ), Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ), and Haili Wind Power (301155.SZ).

Risk warning: increased competition, changes in policies that exceed expectations, restrictions on power grid consumption issues, renewable energy installations fall short of expectations, insufficient supply of raw materials, etc.