■NVIDIA's financial results are not a tailwind
This week's Nikkei Average fell by 141.27 yen (-0.36%) to 38646.11 yen per week. Since the financial results announcement of US semiconductor giant NVIDIA, which attracted attention, exceeded market expectations, it became a material to boost semiconductor stocks such as Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞ and Advantest ＜6857＞, but it was not an overall strong development that would raise many industries. The US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.49% due to strong US economic indicators in the US market on the 23rd. The trend of falling US high-tech stocks, which were disgusted by rising interest rates, spread to the Tokyo market, and semiconductor stocks generally fell over the weekend. Although the exchange rate was 1 dollar = 157 yen and the depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the dollar strengthened, it was not a tailwind for Japanese stocks due to heightened yen buying intervention vigilance by the government and the Bank of Japan.
In the bond market, the yield on new 10-year government bonds, which is an indicator, rose to 1.005%, exceeding the milestone of 1.000% for the first time in about 12 years since 2012/4. In response to the current depreciation of the yen, etc., speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan will move to an early increase in additional interest rates or a reduction in government bond purchases, etc., and aggressive trading was refrained from being wary of sudden changes in the stock market. Despite the fact that the Nikkei Average temporarily fell 700 yen, the trading price of the weekend prime market did not increase and remained at around 3.8 trillion yen.
Note, according to trading trends by investor for the 3rd week of May, foreign investors overbought actual goods by 38.4 billion yen, oversold TOPIX futures by 179.7 billion yen, and 225 futures were oversold by 61.4 billion yen, resulting in a total oversale of 2027 billion yen. Meanwhile, individual investors overbought 51.8 billion yen in total, such as overselling actual goods by 109.3 billion yen. Furthermore, the trust overbought the actual item by a small amount of 49.2 billion yen.
■MSCI rebalance on the 31st
The US stock market rebounded on the 24th of this weekend. The Dow average closed at 39069.59 dollars, 4.33 dollars higher (+ 0.01%) than the previous day, the NASDAQ closed at 16920.80, 184.77 points higher (+ 1.10%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5304.72, 36.88 points higher (+ 0.70%). Also, Nikkei 225 futures from the Taisen Night Session closed at 38800 yen, which is 200 yen higher than the regular closing price.
The Nikkei Average fell below the 75-day moving average, but remained above the 25-day moving average which turned to a steady upward trend. Since the lower cloud limit of the daily Ichimoku equilibrium chart is 38396 yen and almost the same level as the 25-day moving average, the 38400 yen level will continue to be recognized as a support line. Since the upper price is heavy, but the lower price is also firm, I can't really feel a sense of caution about the lower price. However, trading prices on the Prime market remain around 4 trillion yen, and market energy is scarce. Under circumstances where the scenario of the Nikkei average rise triggered by NVIDIA's financial results has collapsed, it is assumed that the situation where no sense of direction has been determined will continue.
Note that since a rebalance associated with the TOPIX regular review will occur on the 30th and a rebalance associated with the MSCI periodic review will occur on the 31st, there is a possibility that the trading price will increase to around 5 trillion yen over the weekend. ASICS ＜7936＞ will be newly adopted in the MSCI regular review, but 15 brands such as Shimizu Corporation ＜1803＞, Sharp ＜6753＞, Yamaha ＜7951＞, Tobu Railway ＜9001＞, and Odakyu Electric Railway ＜9007＞ will be excluded. Although it is a stock with a small index impact, it is important to be careful about the timing of the 31st close since many stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average are excluded.
■Bank stocks remained flat even as long-term interest rates rose
In response to rising long-term interest rates, declines in real estate stocks such as Mitsubishi Estate ＜8802＞ and Mitsui Fudosan ＜8801＞ are conspicuous in the stock market. Meanwhile, regional banks such as Concordia FG ＜7186＞ were bought slightly in bank stocks, which are representative interest rate increases, but megabanks such as Mitsubishi UFJFG (8306) have remained flat and no noticeable movements have been observed.
In response to the fact that long-term interest rates rose to the level for the first time in 12 years, the market did not have a favorable impression of “de-deflation,” and a sense of caution against sudden changes in market prices took precedence, showing a slightly negative reaction. Bank of Japan officials, such as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, will attend the international conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Institute of Monetary Research from 27th to 28th at the beginning of the week, so there is also a possibility that a sense of caution against surprise statements has intensified. Since the blackout period before the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is held in the middle of next week, there will also be many lectures by senior US government officials. It seems that the situation where Japan-US interest rates are being swayed by statements made by senior Japanese and US government officials will continue.
■US January-March GDP revisions announced on the 30th
Next week, domestically, announcements such as the March Business Trend Index (final value) are scheduled on the 27th, the April corporate service price index on the 28th, the May consumer attitude index on the 29th, the May Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 31st, the April unemployment rate, industrial production (preliminary value), number of housing starts, etc. Furthermore, the 2024 International Conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Financial Research Institute is scheduled to be held on 27-28.
Overseas, the German/May IFO business confidence index on the 27th, the Australia/April retail sales volume on the 28th, the US/March S&P/Core Logic CS20 urban housing price index, the May conference board consumer confidence index, the Australia/April CPI on the 29th, the German/June GFK consumer confidence survey, the May CPI (preliminary report), the US-May Richmond Federal Bank manufacturing index, the Europe/5 Eurozone business confidence index on the 30th, the April Eurozone unemployment rate, the number of new unemployment insurance claims for the previous week, 1-1 Announcements of GDP (revised value), April wholesale inventory (preliminary value), April used housing sales contract index, weekly crude oil inventory, mid/5 manufacturing/service industry PMI, Europe/5 Eurozone CPI (preliminary value), US/4 personal income, PCE deflator, May Chicago Purchasing Department Association business climate index, etc. are scheduled to be announced on the 31st.