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A milestone! Big news from SMIC

券商中國 · May 25 16:29

里程碑一刻！

据Counterpoint Research的最新数据显示，按第一季度收入计算，中国大陆“芯片一哥”$中芯国际 (00981.HK)$在全球的市场份额上升至6%，首次超越$GlobalFoundries (GFS.US)$（格芯）、联华电子，跃升为全球第三大芯片代工企业，仅次于$台积电 (TSM.US)$、$三星电子 (SSNLF.US)$。

从营收按地区分类来看，2024年第一季度，$中芯国际 (688981.SH)$来自中国区的业务占比达到81.6%，受益于国内需求恢复，中芯国际季度业绩超出市场预期。值得注意的是，中国集成电路进口额开始呈现下降趋势，据中国海关总署官网数据显示，2023年中国累计进口集成电路数量同比下降10.8%，进口金额同比下降15.4%。数字背后反映的是，我国本土的芯片产业链正在快速成长，市场份额也在提升。

从全球市场来看，半导体行业已经显露出需求复苏的迹象。台积电最新预测，全球半导体行业（不包括存储芯片）的年收入增长将达到10%。世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）也预测，2024年全球半导体市场将同比增长13.1%。

里程碑

据Counterpoint Research的最新数据显示，按第一季度收入计算，中国大陆“芯片一哥”中芯国际首次超越GlobalFoundries（格芯）、联华电子，跃升为全球第三大芯片代工企业。

报告显示，今年第一季度，中芯国际在全球的市场份额为6%，高于2023年的5%，超越了格芯、联华电子，成为全球第三大芯片代工厂商。

目前，中芯国际的市场份额仅次于台积电、三星电子。

其中，台积电在第一季度的业绩表现优于市场预期，市场份额高达62%，稳坐全球芯片代工的“霸主地位”。同时，台积电将AI收入复合年增长率50%的指导方针延长至2028年，反映出AI需求的持续旺盛。

而三星电子的芯片代工收入则出现了下滑，主要受智能手机季节性因素影响，以13%的市场份额位居全球第二。该公司预计，随着第二季度需求回暖，收入将实现两位数增长。

Counterpoint Research发布报告称：“中芯国际的季度业绩超出市场预期，随着中国对CMOS图像传感器（CIS）、电源管理IC（PMIC）、物联网芯片和显示驱动IC（DDIC）应用的需求开始复苏，中芯国际在2024年第一季度的代工收入市场份额首次稳居第三位。”

其实，从严格意义上来说，三星电子并不是一家纯晶圆代工企业，所以，从一季度营收排名来看，中芯国际是仅次于台积电的全球第二大纯晶圆代工厂。

长期关注中芯国际的资深分析师王如晨表示，尽管毛利率、净利润无法与$联电 (UMC.US)$、格芯相比，但这还是非常有意义的。即便排名在未来几个季度甚至更长时间内可能会出现变动，但中芯国际的行业地位将进一步提升，话语权也会持续加强。

中芯国际生产的芯片广泛应用于汽车、智能手机、计算机、物联网技术等领域。受益于国内应用需求的恢复，中芯国际一季度业绩超出市场预期。

财报显示，中芯国际今年第一季度营收125.94亿元，同比增长19.7%，环比增长4.3%，创下历史同期次高纪录（仅低于2022年第一季度的18.42亿美元）。

该公司在财报中表示，营收快速增长的原因是，客户囤积芯片。由于需求强劲，中芯国际预计，第二季度收入将较第一季度增长5%至7%。

Counterpoint Research也在报告中表示，随着补库存趋势的扩大，预计中芯国际第二季度将继续增长，与上次财报电话会议中给出的个位数增长指引相比，2024年中芯国际可能会增长15%左右。

超八成收入来自中国市场

中芯国际主营收入按地区分类来看，2024年第一季度，该公司来自中国区、美国区和欧亚区的业务占比分别为81.6%、14.9%、3.5%。意味着，中芯国际超过五分之四的营收，都来自于中国市场。

中国已经成为全球主要的芯片消费国之一。科技咨询公司Omdia的数据显示，中国消耗了全球近50%的半导体，是全球最大的消费电子设备组装市场。

另据中国半导体行业协会的数据，2022年中国芯片市场规模为11298亿元，同比增长8.03%，预计在2024年中国芯片销售额将达到14426亿元。

因此，中国对芯片进口需求非常大。据海关总署的数据显示，2022 年中国芯片进口金额达到了2.77万亿元，占2022年我国总进口金额的15.3%。

值得注意的是，中国集成电路进口额开始呈现下降趋势，据中国海关总署官网数据显示，2023年中国累计进口集成电路数量同比下降10.8%，进口金额同比下降15.4%。数字背后反映的是，我国本土的芯片产业链正在开始快速成长，市场份额也在提升。

全球芯片行业正在复苏

从全球市场来看，Counterpoint Research认为，半导体行业在2024年一季度已显露出需求复苏的迹象，尽管这一进展相对缓慢，经过连续几个季度的去库存，渠道库存已经正常化。

同时，该机构认为，AI的强劲需求和终端产品需求的复苏将成为2024年晶圆代工行业的主要增长动力。此外，今年第一季度，全球代工行业的收入环比下降了约5%，但同比增长了12%。

另外，台积电释放的最新信号也预示着，全球半导体行业将在2024年迎来复苏。受益于消费电子开始复苏，AI需求持续增长，台积电4月份的销售额达2360亿元新台币，环比增长20.9%，同比大幅增长了59.6%。

5月23日，台积电预测，全球半导体行业（不包括存储芯片）的年收入增长将达到10%。

台积电高级副总裁Cliff Hou在一次活动中表示，这是人工智能的新机遇和黄金时代。由于人工智能对芯片的需求激增，预计公司第二季度销售额可能增长30%。

世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）也预测，2024年全球半导体市场将同比增长13.1%。

野村认为，如果周期性技术复苏扩大到其他电子终端市场，将支持半导体进入下一轮上升周期，从今年下半年持续到2025年。AI需求带动下，终端市场的周期性复苏将从人工智能服务器扩大到传统服务器、个人电脑和智能手机等其他主要计算领域。

编辑/new

A milestone moment!

According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, in terms of revenue for the first quarter, mainland China's “chip brother”$SMIC (00981.HK)$Global market share rose to 6%, surpassing for the first time$GlobalFoundries (GFS.US)$(Gexin) and Lianhua Electronics have risen to become the third largest chip foundry in the world, after$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$,$Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (SSNLF.US)$.

Looking at revenue by region, in the first quarter of 2024,$Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981.SH)$The share of business from China reached 81.6%. Benefiting from the recovery in domestic demand, SMIC's quarterly results exceeded market expectations. It is worth noting that China's integrated circuit imports have begun to show a downward trend. According to data from the official website of the China General Administration of Customs, the cumulative number of integrated circuits imported by China in 2023 fell 10.8% year on year, and the import amount fell 15.4% year on year. What is reflected behind the numbers is that China's local chip industry chain is growing rapidly, and its market share is also increasing.

Looking at the global market, the semiconductor industry has shown signs of a recovery in demand. TSMC's latest forecast is that the annual revenue growth of the global semiconductor industry (excluding memory chips) will reach 10%. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) also predicts that the global semiconductor market will grow 13.1% year over year in 2024.

milestones

According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, based on first-quarter revenue, SMIC, the “chip brother” in mainland China, surpassed GlobalFoundries (GF) and Lianhua Electronics for the first time to become the third largest chip foundry company in the world.

The report shows that in the first quarter of this year, SMIC's global market share was 6%, up from 5% in 2023, surpassing GF and Lianhua Electronics to become the third largest chip manufacturer in the world.

Currently, SMIC's market share is second only to TSMC and Samsung Electronics.

Among them, TSMC's performance in the first quarter was superior to market expectations, with a market share of 62%, and a stable “dominant position” in global chip foundry. Meanwhile, TSMC has extended the guideline of 50% CAGR for AI revenue until 2028, reflecting continued strong demand for AI.

Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics' chip foundry revenue has declined, mainly due to seasonal smartphone factors, ranking second in the world with a 13% market share. The company expects double-digit revenue growth as demand picks up in the second quarter.

Counterpoint Research released a report saying, “SMIC's quarterly results exceeded market expectations. As China's demand for CMOS image sensors (CIS), power management ICs (PMIC), IoT chips, and display driver ICs (DDIC) applications began to recover, SMIC's OEM revenue market share in the first quarter of 2024 stabilized for the first time.”

In fact, in the strict sense of the word, Samsung Electronics is not a pure wafer foundry, so judging from the first-quarter revenue rankings, SMIC is the second-largest pure wafer foundry in the world after TSMC.

Wang Ruchen, a senior analyst who has been following SMIC for a long time, said that although gross profit margin and net profit cannot be compared$United Microelectronics (UMC.US)$Compared to GF, this is still very meaningful. Even though rankings may change over the next few quarters or longer, SMIC's position in the industry will further improve, and its voice will continue to strengthen.

Chips produced by SMIC are widely used in automobiles, smartphones, computers, IoT technology, etc. Benefiting from the recovery in domestic application demand, SMIC's first quarter results exceeded market expectations.

According to financial reports, SMIC's revenue for the first quarter of this year was 12.594 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year and 4.3% month-on-month, setting the second-highest record for the same period in history (only lower than US$1,842 billion in the first quarter of 2022).

The company said in its earnings report that the reason for the rapid increase in revenue is that customers are hoarding chips. Due to strong demand, SMIC expects second-quarter revenue to increase 5% to 7% compared to the first quarter.

Counterpoint Research also said in the report that as the trend of inventory replenishment expands, SMIC is expected to continue to grow in the second quarter. Compared with the single-digit growth guidelines given in the last earnings call, SMIC may increase by about 15% in 2024.

Over 80% of revenue comes from the Chinese market

Looking at SMIC's main revenue by region, in the first quarter of 2024, the company's business from China, the US, and Eurasia accounted for 81.6%, 14.9%, and 3.5%, respectively. This means that over four-fifths of SMIC's revenue comes from the Chinese market.

China has become one of the world's major chip consumers. According to data from technology consulting firm Omdia, China consumes nearly 50% of the world's semiconductors and is the world's largest consumer electronics assembly market.

In addition, according to data from the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the size of China's chip market in 2022 was 112.98 billion yuan, an increase of 8.03% over the previous year. It is estimated that in 2024, China's chip sales will reach 1442.6 billion yuan.

As a result, there is a huge demand for imported chips in China. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's chip imports reached 2.77 trillion yuan in 2022, accounting for 15.3% of China's total imports in 2022.

It is worth noting that China's integrated circuit imports have begun to show a downward trend. According to data from the official website of the China General Administration of Customs, the cumulative number of integrated circuits imported by China in 2023 fell 10.8% year on year, and the import amount fell 15.4% year on year. What is reflected behind the numbers is that China's local chip industry chain is beginning to grow rapidly, and its market share is also increasing.

The global chip industry is recovering

Looking at the global market, Counterpoint Research believes that the semiconductor industry has shown signs of recovery in demand in the first quarter of 2024. Although this progress is relatively slow, channel inventory has been normalized after several consecutive quarters of inventory removal.

At the same time, the agency believes that strong demand for AI and the recovery in demand for terminal products will be the main growth drivers for the foundry industry in 2024. Furthermore, in the first quarter of this year, the revenue of the global foundry industry fell by about 5% month-on-month, but increased by 12% year-on-year.

Furthermore, the latest signals released by TSMC also indicate that the global semiconductor industry will usher in a recovery in 2024. Benefiting from the beginning of a recovery in consumer electronics, demand for AI continued to grow. TSMC's sales in April reached NT$236 billion, up 20.9% month-on-month and 59.6% year-on-year.

On May 23, TSMC predicted that the annual revenue growth of the global semiconductor industry (excluding memory chips) would reach 10%.

Cliff Hou, senior vice president of TSMC, said at an event that this is a new opportunity and a golden age for artificial intelligence. The company's second-quarter sales are expected to increase 30% due to a surge in AI demand for chips.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) also predicts that the global semiconductor market will grow 13.1% year over year in 2024.

Nomura believes that if the cyclical technological recovery extends to other electronic terminal markets, it will support semiconductors to enter the next upward cycle, which will continue from the second half of this year to 2025. Driven by AI demand, the cyclical recovery of the terminal market will expand from artificial intelligence servers to other major computing fields such as traditional servers, personal computers, and smartphones.

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