As of press release, the NASDAQ is up 0.44%, the S&P 500 is up 0.37%, and the Dow is up 0.19%.

Next Monday is US Veterans Day, and US stocks and other financial markets will be closed as a result.

As the long weekend approaches, investors will avoid betting heavily. At the same time, some people worry that after Wall Street returns from Monday's holiday, the shift to a faster settlement cycle in the US may cause some transactions to fail.

Nvidia, the leading AI chip stock, rose more than 9% on Thursday, and its stock price reached a record high. The company's earnings for the first fiscal quarter exceeded expectations, announced a 1:10 stock split plan, and announced strong future performance guidelines.

Nvidia has become a key weather vane in the US stock market; it is the de facto leader of the so-called “Big Seven US stocks.”

However, the sharp rise in Nvidia's stock price on Thursday did not help the market reverse its decline. The S&P 500 index fell 0.74% on the same day, and more than 460 constituent stocks closed lower. The NASDAQ fell 0.39%. Dragged down by Boeing's 7.6% drop, the Dow fell more than 600 points, or 1.53%, making it the worst trading day since March 2023.

Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group (Harris Financial Group), said, “Entering the long weekend, the market often stops to take a break. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are the most important market catalysts, and even Nvidia has been unable to refocus the market on positive factors.”

The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday show that, in fact, at a recent meeting, central bank policymakers expressed concern about the lack of progress in curbing inflation.

Strong economic data released this Thursday, combined with the tough wording of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting released earlier this week, further weakened investors' bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this year.

The service sector and manufacturing data for May both exceeded economists' expectations, while the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 18 was 215,000, lower than the market average estimate of 220,000, indicating that labor market conditions are still tense.

Currently, swaps expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time in December rather than November. The market currently expects an interest rate cut of only 35 basis points in 2024, while the expectation at the beginning of this year was to cut interest rates by 150 basis points.

Following the release of strong economic and labor data this week, Goldman Sachs postponed the forecast for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from July to September.

Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote, “By September, the US inflation situation may improve a lot, but it won't be perfect, and the rate cut compared to the same period last year will make cutting interest rates an uncertain decision.”

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank strategists believe that even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates this year, the S&P 500 index can continue to soar and reach another record high.

Binky Chadha, the bank's chief US stock and global strategist, said in an interview that as long as the economy and corporate profits grow, the stock market can remain strong even in the face of prolonged high interest rates. Chadha raised the S&P 500 point year-end forecast to 5,500 points last week, about 4% higher than Thursday's closing level.

Gunlak, founder of Dual Tier Capital, known as the “King of New Debt,” said on Thursday that he expects the US economy to fall into recession as early as this year due to high interest rates putting pressure on American consumers and businesses.

Gunlak said that signs such as rising credit card delinquency rates and weakening retail sales data indicate that the possibility of a contraction in the US economy is more urgent than the risk of a rebound in inflation.

He said, “There are many signs of a recession. It's not so much inflation as the feeling of a recession.” Gunlak said he is staying away from the riskiest parts of the corporate bond market, such as 3C rated corporate bonds and private credit investments, because he expects a surge in corporate debt defaults. In the face of a sharp economic slowdown, investors seeking higher returns in the private credit market than in the public debt market may face the risk of continuing to hold illiquid assets.

In terms of Friday's economic data, the US Department of Commerce reported on Friday that in April, demand for durable goods such as electrical appliances, automobiles, and airplanes was far stronger than expected.

Durable goods orders rose 0.7% in April, slightly lower than the 0.8% increase in March, but far better than the 1% decline generally expected by Dow Jones. Excluding transportation items, orders continued to increase by 0.4%. Excluding defense products, however, new orders remained flat.

Individual stocks in focus

Star Technology stocks rose slightly; AMD rose more than 1%, and Nvidia and Apple rose nearly 1%.

Popular Chinese securities had mixed ups and downs. Pinduoduo rose nearly 6%, Ideal Auto rose more than 4%, and NetEase fell nearly 4%.

In terms of individual stocks,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It rose 0.53%, and reports say Nvidia will lower the price of H20 artificial intelligence chips supplied to the Chinese market.

$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$With an increase of nearly 6%, Goldman Sachs upgraded Pinduoduo's ADR rating from neutral to buy.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$With an increase of nearly 1%, analysts Wade Bush raised Apple's target price from $250 to $275, saying that artificial intelligence technology will drive iPhone demand into a new cycle.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Up nearly 1%, sales are expected to increase 30% in the second quarter.

edit/emily