Incidents:
On May 21, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced financial data for the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 22,000 vehicles, an increase of 19.7% over the previous year. In the first quarter of 2024, revenue was 6.55 billion yuan, up 62.3% year on year, net profit was -1.37 billion yuan, and losses narrowed year over year.
X9 leads the delivery of data, and the public contributed significantly to revenue growth
In the first quarter of 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 21,821 new vehicles, an increase of 19.7% over the previous year. The X9 contributed to sales of major models. The X9/G6/G9/P7 (including the P7i) delivered 0.79/0.50/0.36/0.42 million units respectively. High-value models led to a rapid increase in revenue. The first quarter of 2024 achieved revenue of 6.55 billion yuan, up 62.3% year on year, of which automobile sales revenue was 5.54 billion yuan, up 57.8% year on year, and service and other revenue was 1.0 billion yuan, up 93.1% year on year. The impressive revenue growth performance was mainly due to the release of high-value models and the acceleration of cooperation with Volkswagen. Delivery volume for the second quarter of 2024 is expected to be 29,000-32,000 vehicles, with corresponding revenue of 75-8.3 billion yuan. Looking at the model plan, the first model of the Mona brand is expected to be launched in June, and the next model of the Xiaopeng brand is expected to be launched in Q4. The new car cycle is intense.
Gross margin doubled month-on-month, while investment was high, losses narrowed year-on-year
In the first quarter of 2024, Xiaopeng Motor achieved a gross margin of 12.9%, an increase of 11.2 pct over the previous year, and an increase of 6.7 pct month-on-month, mainly due to the scale effect of automobiles and high gross profit from mass cooperation. Among them, automobile sales/service and other gross margins were 5.5%/53.9% respectively, up 7.9pct/24.3pct year on year and 1.4pct/15.7pct month-on-month. R&D/SG&A expenses were 135/1.39 billion yuan, R&D/SG&A expenses were 20.6%/21.2% respectively, down 11.5pct/13.2pct year on year, net profit was -1.37 billion yuan, and losses narrowed year on year. It is estimated that 3.5 billion yuan will be invested in intelligent R&D throughout the year, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of AI applications.
Looking at the global strategy of accelerating global strategy and deepening cooperation with the public at the same time, the company is expanding markets such as Germany, France, Thailand, and Singapore, and the internationalization 2.0 strategy is further accelerated. Xiaopeng and Volkswagen signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement on electronic and electrical architecture technology in April. The two sides will jointly develop and integrate it into the CMP platform based on Xiaopeng Motor's latest generation electronic and electrical architecture. It is expected that it will be applied to Volkswagen brand electric models produced in China starting 2026.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Due to increased market competition and an increase in the share of low-value models, we expect the company to sell 22/61/750,000 units in 24/25/26, with corresponding revenue of 506/981/109.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65%/94%/11%, respectively. Net profit attributable to mother was -57/7/2.9 billion yuan, respectively. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: The advancement of intelligent functions falls short of expectations; the impact of intelligence on vehicle sales is less than expected.