销售收入承压，产品结构稳健。收入分产品看，鲜货类产品2023 年57.68 亿元（+6.09%）、2024Q4 同比+9.78%、2024Q1 同比-8.73%，其中禽类制品44.78 亿元（+6.50%）、2023Q4同比+11.26%、2024Q1 同比-7.57%，畜类产品2023 年0.27 亿元（+26.78%）、2023Q4同比-281.12%、2024Q1 同比+133.16%，蔬菜产品2023 年6.8 亿元（+5.57%）、2023Q4同比+0.19%、2024Q1 同比-13.45%，其他产品2023 年5.83 亿元（+2.80%）、2023Q4同比+0.96%、2024Q1 同比-16.90%；包装产品2023 年2.82 亿元（+32.75%）、2023Q4同比-17.2%、2024Q1 同比-16.44%；加盟商管理2023 年0.83 亿元（+11.38%）、2023Q4同比+59.64%、2024Q1 同比-15.48%；其他2023 年9.74 亿元（+33.82%）、2023Q4 同比+14.5%、2024Q1 同比+7.07%。Description of the event
The company's total revenue in 2023 was 7.261 billion yuan (+9.64%), net profit attributable to mother was 344 million yuan (+46.63%), after deducting non-net profit of 401 million yuan (+54.51%). Total operating income of 2023Q4 was 1.63 billion yuan (+8.45%); net profit attributable to mother was 453.412 million yuan (-394.98%), after deducting non-net profit of 35.591 million yuan (turning a loss into a profit). Total operating income of 2024Q1 was 1,695 million yuan (-7.04%); net profit attributable to mother was 165 million yuan (+20.02%), after deducting non-net profit of 156 million yuan (+15.66%).
Incident comments
Sales revenue is under pressure, and the product structure is stable. By product, fresh goods were 5.768 billion yuan (+6.09%) in 2023, 2024Q4 +9.78% year over year, and 2024Q1 -8.73% year over year, including poultry products 4.478 billion yuan (+6.50%), 2023Q4 +11.26% year over year, 2024Q1 -7.57% year over year, livestock products 27 million yuan in 2023 (+26.78%), 2023Q4 -281.12%, 2024Q1 +133.16% year over year, vegetable products 2023 RMB 680 million (+5.57%), 2023Q4 +0.19% YoY, 2024Q1 -13.45% YoY; Other products 2023 RMB 583 million (+2.80%), 2023Q4 +0.96% YoY, 2024Q1 -16.90% YoY; packaging products 2023 RMB 282 million (+32.75%), 2023Q4 YoY -17.2%, 2024Q1 -16.44% YoY; Franchise Management 2023 RMB 83 million (+ 11.38%), 2023Q4 +59.64% YoY, 2024Q1 -15.48% YoY; others 2023 RMB 974 million (+33.82%), 2023Q4 +14.5% YoY, and 2024Q1 +7.07% YoY.
The net increase in stores is slowing down, and attention is being paid to improving quality. By the end of 2023, the total number of the company's stores in mainland China was 15,950 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas markets), with a net annual increase of 874. Currently, the company's Canadian Committee has 116 war zone committee working groups and more than 3,500 franchisees. According to the revenue structure based on store age, 51% for 5 years and above, 12% for 3-4 years, 10% for 2-3 years, and 18% for 2 years; according to store age, 46% for 5 years and above, 7% for 4-5 years, 12% for 2-3 years, and 23% for 2 years or less; the revenue performance of old stores is better than that of new stores. According to the channel, the revenue structure is 51%, the complex is 15%, the supermarket is 7%, the community is 5%, and the school is 3%; according to the channel, the number structure of stores is 51%, the complex 12%, the supermarket 7%, the community 22%, the traffic 4%, and the school 3%; the revenue of a single complex store is relatively outstanding. In 2024, the company will shift from focusing on expanding share in the past to intensive cultivation. The marketing team will promote the restructuring of stores and franchisees and optimize the single-store model.
Cost improvement dividends are released, and the overall cost rate is manageable. The company's net income interest rate in 2023 increased by 1.20pct to 4.74%, gross margin -0.80pct to 24.77%, and the period expense ratio -3.80pct to 14.59%. Among them, sales expenses ratio (-2.31pct), management expense ratio (-1.39pct), and R&D expense ratio remained flat year-on-year, and financial expenses ratio (-0.11pct). 2023Q4's net profit margin fell 3.80pct to -2.78%, gross margin +4.41pct to 26.9%, sales expense ratio (-0.55pct), management expense ratio (-2.45pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.04pct), and financial expense ratio (+0.07pct). 2024Q1's net profit margin increased by 2.19pct to 9.73%, gross margin +5.73pct to 30.03%, and the period expense ratio +1.66pct to 15.24%, including sales expense ratio (+1.09pct), management expense ratio (-0.04pct), R&D expense ratio (+0.14pct), and financial expense ratio (+0.47pct). Cost pressure continues to improve, and gross margin has been rising for 3 consecutive quarters.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 is estimated to be $7.76, 9.38, and $1,063 million, EPS is 1.25, 1.51, and 1.71 yuan respectively. The current stock price PE is 17, 14, and 12X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Risk of fluctuations in raw material prices;
2. Market competition risk;
3. Food safety risks.
