Source: Golden Ten Data
Anduran's fund has risen 83% this year, and earnings come from a wide range of commodities.
Pierre Andurand (Pierre Andurand), the “god of crude oil trading,” predicts that in the next few years, due to surging demand, global red copper inventories are in a hurry, copper prices will almost quadruple to reach 40,000 US dollars per ton.
Anduran's confidence in the copper market helped the $1.3 billion “Commodity Self-Enhancement Fund” it manages to rebound from a 55% loss last year. Last year's sharp losses stemmed from a sharp reversal of their bullish oil bets. According to people familiar with the matter, the fund has risen 83% this year, and its revenue comes from a wide range of commodities.
As a key metal at the core of the energy transition, the price of copper has risen nearly 20% this year, hitting a record high of $11,000 per tonne this week. However, Anduran, one of the world's leading commodity traders, believes that the rise in copper prices is far from over due to supply difficulties in meeting demand.
In an interview, he said, “Demand for copper is expected to double due to the electrification of the world, including electric vehicles, solar panels, wind farms, military use and data centers.”
“I think the price of copper could reach $40,000 per ton in the next four years. I'm not saying it will stay at that price; eventually we will have a supply-side response, but this supply response will take more than five years.”
Miner BHP Billiton (BHP.N)'s bid rival Anglo-American Resources is also seen as a sign that new construction is more difficult and expensive. In contrast, buying rivals that own copper mines seem more straightforward.
Anduran was a Goldman Sachs trader, then co-founded BlueGold Capital and later founded Andurand Capital. He believes that simply digging deeper and faster in existing mines will not be enough to keep up with the increase in copper demand. The industry estimates that it usually takes 15 years to develop a new mine.
Anduran also mentioned that he had predicted that the price of oil would rise to 140 US dollars per barrel, but even with frequent conflicts between Ukraine and the Middle East, this expectation did not come true, and he learned his lesson.
“I think oil traders have learned to be quite cautious about potential supply disruptions,” he said. I think we've all lost a lot of money in anticipation of supply disruptions that never happened.”
The Frenchman, who made huge profits from the energy market during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, said he no longer expected a sharp rise in crude oil prices.
“Geopolitical risks like Russia and Gaza have not had an impact on supply, so I think that's why oil prices are relatively stable, and I expect this to continue. I don't think oil prices will fluctuate significantly.”
Despite losses last year, according to a person familiar with the data, Anduran's fund's annualized net return has reached 34% since its inception in June 2019.
Anduran is also bullish on other commodities, including cocoa. The price of this commodity has tripled from the beginning of the year to mid-April. Furthermore, he believes that aluminum prices will continue to rise for reasons similar to copper, because aluminum can replace red copper.
edit/lambor