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It's Down 27% But S&W Seed Company (NASDAQ:SANW) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Simply Wall St ·  May 24 18:25

To the annoyance of some shareholders, S&W Seed Company (NASDAQ:SANW) shares are down a considerable 27% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 73% loss during that time.

Following the heavy fall in price, considering around half the companies operating in the United States' Food industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") above 0.9x, you may consider S&W Seed as an solid investment opportunity with its 0.2x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.

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NasdaqCM:SANW Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 24th 2024

How S&W Seed Has Been Performing

S&W Seed could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on S&W Seed will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, S&W Seed would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 2.5%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 21% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 13% as estimated by the only analyst watching the company. With the industry only predicted to deliver 2.1%, the company is positioned for a stronger revenue result.

In light of this, it's peculiar that S&W Seed's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Final Word

The southerly movements of S&W Seed's shares means its P/S is now sitting at a pretty low level. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

To us, it seems S&W Seed currently trades on a significantly depressed P/S given its forecasted revenue growth is higher than the rest of its industry. The reason for this depressed P/S could potentially be found in the risks the market is pricing in. It appears the market could be anticipating revenue instability, because these conditions should normally provide a boost to the share price.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for S&W Seed (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you're unsure about the strength of S&W Seed's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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