Source: Finance Association
① On Thursday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission suddenly approved key documents for the Ethereum ETF, indicating that the listing of the asset is only one step away; ② The market's attitude towards Ethereum ETFs is inconsistent, and some people are worried that their recognition and popularity are not as good as Bitcoin, so they cannot attract large-scale investors into this category; ③ but there are also people who believe that once the ETF is listed, spot Ether will soar 60%.
After the US stock market on Thursday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suddenly presented documents and historically approved the change form for Ethereum spot ETF trading rules, which meant that the new product was only one last step away from listing on the US exchange.
Next, major issuers will wait for the SEC to approve their S-1 form as the final step in the listing of an Ethereum ETF, but there is no clear deadline for approval of this document.
Despite this, the market is already very optimistic about the listing of an Ethereum ETF. The only question is whether the Ethereum ETF can replicate the boom in January when the Bitcoin ETF went public.
Over the past four months, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated assets of 57 billion US dollars, making it one of the fastest fund categories in history. However, in the face of an Ethereum ETF, some analysts inevitably have doubts.
Data provider Vettafi analyst Lara Crigger warned that she doubts that Ethereum ETFs can attract capital inflows on the same scale as Bitcoin products. Its market size is much smaller than Bitcoin, and the popularity of Ether among the public is far lower than that of Bitcoin.
A tortuous journey
The coin has risen more than 20% this week due to bets on the impending listing of an Ethereum ETF, which is the coin's best weekly performance since 2021.
Last week, the market also predicted that the SEC would most likely veto the listing of the Ethereum ETF by Thursday's deadline, and continue to delay the launch of the product.
Rich Rosenblum, president of GSR Markets, pointed out that the latest developments in Ethereum ETFs are an important milestone for cryptocurrencies. Its sudden approval was, in Rosenblum's opinion, the most incredible reversal in his 12-year career.
An important indicator plaguing the market is the correlation between the Ether spot market and the futures market. Bitcoin ETF also experienced this test when it was listed at the time. According to a study by Coinbase, between March 2021 and January 2024, the correlation between Ether spot and futures was as high as 85% over a one-minute interval, which is even higher than Bitcoin's data.
The SEC claims that it drew on Coinbase and other research and found that they provided empirical evidence confirming that the price trend between spot Ether and futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is very close.
The good news is that the tortuous approval process finally saw the dawn of the product launch. Crypto asset trading firm QCP Capital predicts that the price of Ether may rise 60% after the ETF product is listed, soaring to around $6,000.
As a reference, within less than a month after the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin spot price increased by more than 50%.
editor/tolk