Source: Gelonghui
The peak of summer electricity consumption is approaching.
On May 24, the electricity sector collectively strengthened.
As of press release, Hong Kong power stocks have collectively risen, of which$HUADIAN POWER (01071.HK)$An increase of more than 5%,$DATANG POWER (00991.HK)$,$HUANENG POWER (00902.HK)$,$CHINA POWER (02380.HK)$,$CHINA RES POWER (00836.HK)$Follow the trend.
Major “Electricity Market” policy introduced
This month, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Basic Rules for the Operation of the Electricity Market” to promote more market-based transactions in electricity volume, capacity, and ancillary services. The new regulations will come into effect on July 1, 2024.
The main contents of this “Rule” adjustment include: adjusting statements relating to market scope, operating institutions, and trading entities; improving statements relating to market members and types of market transactions; improving definitions and transaction methods for electricity energy and ancillary service transactions; and refining requirements related to risk prevention and control. “1” in the “1+N” basic rules system for the unified national electricity market makes a top-level design for speeding up the construction of a unified national electricity market system.
Xiangcai Securities said that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China placed higher demands on environmental quality and ecological protection, and accelerated the construction of a new energy system. The implementation of capacity electricity prices and the establishment and improvement of the auxiliary market are expected to improve the stability of thermal power profits. Combined with the central decline in thermal coal prices, it is expected that incoming water will continue to improve in the second quarter, driving a recovery in hydropower generation; electricity supply and demand in some regions may be tight during the peak summer in 2024, and market electricity prices are expected to receive some support.
Focus on the two main lines of “guarantee supply” and “consumption”
According to data recently released by the National Energy Administration, the electricity consumption of the entire society in April was 741.2 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 7% over the previous year. By industry, electricity consumption in primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and urban and rural residents increased by 10.5%, 6.2%, 10.8%, and 5.9%, respectively.
In January-April, the total electricity consumption of the entire society was 3077.2 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 9% over the previous year. Of these, large-scale industrial power generation was 2932.9 billion kilowatt-hours. By industry, the electricity consumption of the country's primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and urban and rural residents increased by 10.1%, 7.5%, 13.5%, and 10.8%, respectively, year-on-year in January-April.
The China Electric Power Enterprise Federation predicts that in 2024, the electricity consumption of the entire society will reach 9.8 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of about 6% over the previous year. As summer approaches, the peak electricity consumption season is fast approaching, and the electricity sector is setting off another wave of heat.
Zhang Xing, deputy director of the General Department of the National Energy Administration and press spokesman, said earlier that electricity consumption has continued to grow rapidly since this year. It is expected that during the summer of this year, the country's electricity consumption load will also grow rapidly. The maximum load will increase by more than 100 million kilowatts over the same period last summer (the country's highest electricity consumption load was about 1.34 billion kilowatts last summer), and electricity security and supply are under certain pressure.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that overall, the growth rate of electricity consumption in April slowed from month to month, but the overall growth rate remained high. Among them, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the industry was still relatively fast, or the industry continued to recover.
Looking ahead to the future market, the electricity sector will still focus on the two main lines of “guarantee supply” and “consumption.” As a flexible power source, thermal power is in the policy dividend period. Currently, coal prices are declining, and the profit flexibility of thermal power is increasing. It is recommended to focus on the green electricity sector. As green electric/green license transactions advance and consumption issues are resolved, the bottom space has reached an inflection point.
editor/tolk