With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.6x Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 17x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Packaging Corporation of America as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is Packaging Corporation of America's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Packaging Corporation of America would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 23% decrease to the company's bottom line. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 57% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.1% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% per annum, which is not materially different.
In light of this, it's curious that Packaging Corporation of America's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Packaging Corporation of America's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Packaging Corporation of America that you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.