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US stock outlook | NASDAQ futures surged more than 1%, Nvidia's performance “exploded”, and chip stocks were in full swing! CEO Komo warns: US economy may have a “hard landing”

Futu News · May 23 20:34

全球宏观

周四盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨，纳指期货涨超1%

截至发稿，道指期货涨0.22%，标普500期货涨0.74%，纳指期货涨1.19%。

数据显示，美国至5月18日当周初请失业金人数录得21.5万人，为4月27日当周以来新低。

摩根大通CEO：美国经济或“硬着陆”，最糟糕结果将是滞胀

摩根大通董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，美国经济可能出现“硬着陆”。戴蒙表示，美国经济最糟糕的结果将是“滞胀”，即通胀持续上升，但经济增长在高失业率的情况下放缓。不过，他表示，即使经济陷入衰退，“消费者仍处于良好状态”。他指出，失业率大约两年来一直低于4%，并补充说工资、房价和股票价格一直在上涨。

投资大佬警告：通胀将持续存在，严重影响美股的回报

资管公司Smead Capital Management的创始人兼首席执行官、巴菲特式价值投资者比尔•斯米德（Bill Smead）表示，至少在未来10年内，美股将面临一段惨淡的回报期。斯米德表示，未来几年通胀可能还会加剧，因为物价上涨的部分原因是公共债务水平高企。美国联邦债务规模目前约为34.5万亿美元。

高盛拉响警报：美国债务成本比率将升至危险水平

高盛集团周三更新了美国长期财政展望，预计衡量债务可持续性的一个关键指标将升至历史极端水平。高盛经济学家表示：“尤其是预期未来利率上升，大大恶化了债务与国内生产总值(GDP)比率以及实际利息支出占GDP比重的轨迹。”美国财政部长Janet Yellen多次将经通胀调整后的净利息支出占GDP的比率作为衡量债务可持续性的主要指标。她去年表示，1%的比率“绝对没问题，没有什么可担心的。”高盛的最新预测显示，到2034年，这一比率将稳步攀升至2.3%。

对冲基金敲警钟：不应因美联储降息盲目乐观，美股仍面临“史上最大泡沫”风险

60亿美元对冲基金Universa首席信息官和创始人马克·斯皮茨纳格尔(Mark Spitznagel)在接受外媒采访时，将基于降息的希望称为“需要小心的情况”。该基金着力于在面临“黑天鹅”事件时进行风险缓解。曾在2008年金融危机前写过《黑天鹅》纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)，担任Universa基金的顾问，他形容黑天鹅事件为“非常罕见，甚至连发生的可能性都未知”，而“一旦发生就会造成灾难性影响”，“事后解释起来似乎实际上可以被预测”。

美财长耶伦称汇率干预不应作为常规手段使用

美国财政部长耶伦在回答日本等国可以怎样应对美元走强的问题时表示，汇率干预应该是一种用得很少的工具，官员们在行动时应发出恰当的警告。“我们认为干预应该是罕有的举措，采取干预行动应该提前沟通，而且应该主要是为了应对外汇市场的波动，”耶伦说。“我们认为干预根本不是一种应该常规使用的工具。”

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前普涨，英伟达绩后涨超7%，阿斯麦涨超4%，美光、AMD、台积电涨超3%

英伟达盘前涨约7%，股价突破1000美元

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$美股盘前涨约7%，突破1000美元关口，市值增加超1600亿美元，大概率能在周四续刷历史新高。公司第一季度财报显示，公司营收、利润，以及Q2指引全面超越市场预期。英伟达同时宣布，将每股普通股的现金股息从0.04美元提高至0.10美元（对应拆分后的每股0.01美元）。英伟达还宣布了拆股计划——1拆10。值得注意的是，仅今年一年，英伟达的市值就增长了逾1.1万亿美元。

戴尔盘前涨超6%，英伟达业绩利好带动，花旗上调其目标价至170美元

英伟达Q1超预期业绩带动半导体芯片股走好，$戴尔科技 (DELL.US)$是英伟达推广AI基础设施的关键伙伴。花旗将戴尔科技的目标价从125美元上调至170美元，维持“买入”评级。

戴尔盘前涨超6%。

大摩：AI PC渗透率到2028年将达65%，联想和戴尔是最大受益者

摩根士丹利最新发布的研报中预测，AI PC将成为推动PC市场增长的下一个关键因素，预计AI PC的市场渗透率将从今年的2%迅速增长至2028年的65%。由于AI PC对芯片算力的高要求，$美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$和$英特尔 (INTC.US)$后续推出的新版CPU将是关键所在。IT硬件方面，大摩认为，$联想集团 (00992.HK)$将成为大中华区硬件市场的首选，$戴尔科技 (DELL.US)$成为美国硬件市场的首选。

特斯拉上海储能超级工厂今日正式开工，预计2025年第一季度投产

今日下午，位于上海临港新片区的$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$上海储能超级工厂正式开工，预计2025年第一季度投产，投产后超大型电化学商用储能系统Megapack产量将达1万台，储能规模近40吉瓦时（1吉瓦时=1000兆瓦时）。据介绍，这是特斯拉在美国本土之外的第一座储能超级工厂，也是特斯拉入华十年来，继上海超级工厂之后，在中国的又一大型投资项目。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前多数下挫，网易、小鹏汽车跌超3%

台积电：3nm扩充产能仍供不应求，今年计划建设七座工厂

据报道，$台积电 (TSM.US)$资深厂长黄远国表示，公司3nm先进制程技术自去年起已开始量产，并且与N4制程的良率相当。由于3nm产能的扩张仍无法满足市场需求，台积电计划今年在全球范围内建设七个新厂。

哔哩哔哩一季度营收56.6亿元，同比增加12%

$哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US)$发布2024年第一季度财报，该季度营收56.6亿元，同比增加12%，市场预期56亿元。经调整净亏损为人民币4.56亿元，同比收窄56%。2024年第一季度实现经营现金流为人民币6.38亿元。日均活跃用户（日活用户）达1.024亿，同比增加9%。

网易第一季度营收269亿元，同比增7.2%

$网易 (NTES.US)$发布第一季度业绩报告，报告显示，第一季度营收269亿元，同比增7.2%，预估267.4亿元；第一季度毛利170亿元，预估165.9亿元。网易一季度NON-GAAP净利润85亿元，而上一季度和2023年第一季度分别为74亿元和76亿元。第一季度，网易在线游戏服务净收入214.6亿元，同比增长7%；创新及其他业务净收入19.7亿元，同比增长6.1%。

网易盘前跌超3%。

微博盘前涨近4%，Q1净营收、调整后每股收益均超预期

$微博 (WB.US)$公布财报显示，2024年第一季度净营收3.955亿美元，同比下降4%，但高于市场预估的3.879亿美元；调整后每股收益0.41美元，高于市场预估的0.36美元。

贝壳第一季度净收入为人民币164亿元，同比下降19.2%

$贝壳 (BEKE.US)$发布2024年第一季度财报，第一季度净收入为人民币164亿元（23亿美元），同比下降19.2%。净利润为人民币4.32亿元（6000万美元）。经调整净利润为人民币13.92亿元（1.93亿美元）。2024年第一季度总交易额由2023年同期的人民币9,715亿元下降35.2%至人民币6,299亿元（872亿美元）。贝壳盘前跌近2%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

北京时间20:30：美国截至5月18日当周初请失业金人数(万)

北京时间21:45：美国5月SPGI制造业PMI初值

北京时间22:00：欧元区5月消费者信心指数初值、美国4月季调后新屋销售年化总数(万户)

北京时间23:00：美国5月堪萨斯联储制造业指数

次日北京时间凌晨01:00：美国5月23日10年期TIPS竞拍-总金额(亿美元)

次日北京时间凌晨03:00：2024年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克参与一场学生问答活动

编辑/emily

Global macroscopic

Before the Thursday market, futures for the three major US stock indexes rose sharply, and NASDAQ futures rose more than 1%

As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.22%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.74%, and NASDAQ futures were up 1.19%.

According to the data, the number of jobless claims in the US was 215,000 at the beginning of the week of May 18, a new low since the week of April 27.

J.P. Morgan CEO: The US economy may have a “hard landing”, the worst outcome will be stagflation

J.P. Morgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said the US economy could experience a “hard landing.” Dimon said that the worst outcome for the US economy would be “stagflation,” that is, inflation continues to rise, but economic growth slows in the face of high unemployment. However, he said that even if the economy falls into recession, “consumers are still in good shape.” He pointed out that the unemployment rate has been below 4% for about two years, adding that wages, housing prices and stock prices have been rising.

Investors warn: inflation will continue, seriously affecting the return of US stocks

Bill Smead (Bill Smead), founder and CEO of asset management company Smead Capital Management and a Buffett value investor, said that for at least the next 10 years, US stocks will face a bleak payback period. Smid said that inflation is likely to increase in the next few years, as part of the rise in prices is due to high levels of public debt. The size of the US federal debt is currently around $34.5 trillion.

Goldman Sachs sounds alarm: US debt-cost ratio will rise to dangerous levels

Goldman Sachs Group updated its long-term US fiscal outlook on Wednesday, and it is expected that a key measure of debt sustainability will rise to historic extreme levels. Goldman Sachs economists said, “In particular, expectations of future interest rate increases have greatly worsened the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and the trajectory of actual interest expenditure as a share of GDP.” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has repeatedly used inflation-adjusted net interest expenses as the ratio of GDP to measure debt sustainability. She said last year that the 1% ratio “is absolutely fine; there's nothing to worry about.” Goldman Sachs's latest forecast shows that this ratio will steadily rise to 2.3% by 2034.

Hedge funds sound a wake-up call: US stocks still face the risk of the “biggest bubble in history” due to blind optimism due to the Fed's interest rate cuts

Mark Spitznagel (Mark Spitznagel), chief information officer and founder of the $6 billion hedge fund Universa, called hopes based on interest rate cuts “a situation requiring caution” in an interview with foreign media. The fund focuses on risk mitigation in the face of a “black swan” incident. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Nassim Nicholas Taleb), who wrote “The Black Swan” before the 2008 financial crisis and was an advisor to the Universa Fund, described the black swan incident as “very rare, and even the possibility of it happening is unknown,” and “once it happens, it will have a disastrous impact”, and “it seems that it can actually be predicted when explained later.”

US Treasury Secretary Yellen says exchange rate intervention should not be used as a conventional tool

In response to the question of how Japan and other countries can deal with the strengthening of the US dollar, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that exchange rate intervention should be a rarely used tool, and officials should issue appropriate warnings when acting. “We believe intervention should be a rare step. Interventions should be communicated in advance, and should mainly be aimed at dealing with fluctuations in the foreign exchange market,” Yellen said. “We don't think intervention is a tool that should be used routinely.”

Hot news

Star Technology stocks generally rose before the market. After Nvidia's results, it rose more than 7%, Asmack rose more than 4%, and Micron, AMD, and TSMC rose more than 3%

Nvidia rose about 7% before the market, and its stock price broke through $1,000

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$US stocks rose about 7% in the premarket, breaking through the $1,000 mark, and their market capitalization increased by more than 160 billion US dollars. It is likely that they will continue to reach record highs on Thursday. The company's first-quarter earnings report showed that the company's revenue, profit, and Q2 guidance completely surpassed market expectations. Nvidia also announced that it will increase its cash dividend per common share from $0.04 to $0.10 (corresponding to $0.01 per share after split). Nvidia also announced a stock split plan — 1 split of 10. Notably, this year alone, Nvidia's market capitalization increased by more than $1.1 trillion.

Dell rose more than 6% in the premarket. Driven by Nvidia's favorable performance, Citi raised its target price to $170

Nvidia's Q1 performance exceeded expectations and led to a positive trend in semiconductor chip stocks.$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$It is Nvidia's key partner in promoting AI infrastructure. Citi raised Dell Technology's target price from $125 to $170, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Dell is up more than 6% in the premarket.

Damo: AI PC penetration rate will reach 65% by 2028, Lenovo and Dell are the biggest beneficiaries

The latest research report released by Morgan Stanley predicts that AI PCs will be the next key factor driving the growth of the PC market. The market penetration rate of AI PCs is expected to grow rapidly from 2% this year to 65% in 2028. Due to the high demands of AI PCs on chip computing power,$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$und$Intel (INTC.US)$The new CPU that will be launched later will be the key. In terms of IT hardware, Damo believes that$LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK)$It will become the first choice for the hardware market in Greater China.$Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$It became the first choice in the US hardware market.

Tesla's Shanghai Energy Storage Gigafactory officially started construction today and is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2025

This afternoon, in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The Shanghai Energy Storage Gigafactory has officially started construction. It is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2025. After commissioning, the Megapack super-large electrochemical commercial energy storage system will produce 10,000 units, with an energy storage scale of nearly 40 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt-hour = 1,000 megawatt-hours). According to reports, this is Tesla's first energy storage gigafactory outside the mainland of the US. It is also another large-scale investment project in China in the ten years since Tesla entered China, following the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Focus on China Securities

Most popular Chinese securities fell before the market, while NetEase and Xiaopeng Auto fell more than 3%

TSMC: 3nm capacity expansion is still in short supply, and plans to build seven plants this year

According to reports,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Senior factory director Huang Yuanguo said that the company's 3nm advanced process technology has been mass-produced since last year, and the yield is comparable to the N4 process. As the expansion of 3nm production capacity is still unable to meet market demand, TSMC plans to build seven new plants around the world this year.

Bilibili's revenue for the first quarter was 5.66 billion yuan, up 12% year on year

$Bilibili (BILI.US)$The financial report for the first quarter of 2024 was released. Revenue for the quarter was 5.66 billion yuan, an increase of 12% over the previous year, and the market forecast was 5.6 billion yuan. The adjusted net loss was RMB 456 million, a decrease of 56% year-on-year. Operating cash flow for the first quarter of 2024 was RMB 638 million. The average number of daily active users (daily active users) reached 102.4 million, an increase of 9% over the previous year.

NetEase's revenue for the first quarter was 26.9 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year

$NetEase (NTES.US)$The first quarter results report was released. The report showed that revenue for the first quarter was 26.9 billion yuan, up 7.2% year on year, and estimated at 26.74 billion yuan; gross profit for the first quarter was 17 billion yuan, estimated at 16.59 billion yuan. NetEase's NON-GAAP net profit for the first quarter was 8.5 billion yuan, compared to 7.4 billion yuan and 7.6 billion yuan for the previous quarter and the first quarter of 2023, respectively. In the first quarter, NetEase's net revenue from online gaming services was 21.46 billion yuan, up 7% year on year; net revenue from innovation and other businesses was 1.97 billion yuan, up 6.1% year on year.

NetEase fell more than 3% before the market.

Weibo rose nearly 4% before the market, and Q1 net revenue and adjusted earnings per share both exceeded expectations

$Weibo (WB.US)$According to the released financial report, net revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was US$395.5 million, down 4% year on year, but higher than the market estimate of US$387.9 million; adjusted earnings per share were $0.41, higher than the market estimate of US$0.36.

Shell's net revenue for the first quarter was RMB 16.4 billion, down 19.2% year on year

$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$The financial report for the first quarter of 2024 was released. Net revenue for the first quarter was RMB 16.4 billion (US$2.3 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 19.2%. Net profit was RMB 432 million (US$60 million). Adjusted net profit was RMB 1,392 million (US$193 million). Total transaction volume for the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 35.2% from RMB 971.5 billion in the same period in 2023 to RMB 629.9 billion (US$87.2 billion). Seashells fell nearly 2% in the premarket.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

20:30 Beijing time: Number of jobless claims in the US at the beginning of the week ending May 18 (10,000)

21:45 Beijing time: Preliminary US SPGI manufacturing PMI for May

22:00 Beijing time: The initial value of the Eurozone consumer confidence index in May, the total annualized total number of new home sales in the US after the April seasonal adjustment (10,000 households)

23:00 Beijing time: US Kansas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for May

The next day at 01:00 a.m. Beijing time: US 10-year TIPS auction on May 23 - total amount (100 million US dollars)

03:00 a.m. the next day, Beijing time: 2024 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic participated in a question-and-answer event for students

edit/emily

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