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Improved Revenues Required Before Valhi, Inc. (NYSE:VHI) Stock's 29% Jump Looks Justified

Simply Wall St ·  May 23 18:05

Despite an already strong run, Valhi, Inc. (NYSE:VHI) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 42% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, it would still be understandable if you think Valhi is a stock with good investment prospects with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 0.3x, considering almost half the companies in the United States' Chemicals industry have P/S ratios above 1.6x. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:VHI Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 23rd 2024

What Does Valhi's Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Valhi over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Valhi will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Valhi's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 6.0%. At least revenue has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 7.4% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's understandable that Valhi's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Bottom Line On Valhi's P/S

Despite Valhi's share price climbing recently, its P/S still lags most other companies. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

As we suspected, our examination of Valhi revealed its three-year revenue trends are contributing to its low P/S, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Valhi (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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