The Zhitong Finance App learned that Anxin International released a research report saying that the “buy” rating for Ideal Automobile-W (02015) lowered the company's future performance forecast, considering the delay in the launch of Ideal Auto's new car and the drop in L series prices. The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 will be 9.2 billion/ 14.8 billion yuan/21.1 billion yuan, and the target price will be lowered to HK$110 million.

Anxin International's main views are as follows:

Q1 results fell short of expectations.

The company achieved revenue of 25.63 billion yuan in 2024Q1, up 36.4% year on year and 38.6% month on month, including vehicle sales business of 24.25 billion yuan, up 32.3% year on year and down 39.9% month on month; Q1 net profit to mother achieved 590 million yuan, down 36.3% year on year, down 89.5% month on month, and Q1 non-US GAAP net profit reached 1.28 billion yuan, down 9.7% year on year and 72.2% month on month. The company delivered 80,000 units in the first quarter, up 52.9% year on year and down 39% month on month. Corresponding bicycle revenue reached 302,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47,000 yuan, and a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 yuan. In terms of gross margin, the company's gross margin of automobile sales reached 19.3% in the first quarter, down 0.4 percentage points year on year and 3.4 percentage points month on month. The decline in car prices and gross margins was due to the ideal model replacement (the L series introduced a facelift in March '24). Prices for all 23 models were reduced by 33,000 to 38,000 yuan in January, which dragged down bicycle prices in the first quarter.

The sales target for the second quarter was 105,000 to 110,000 units, and the launch of pure electric products was postponed.

The delivery guidelines given by the company for the second quarter of '24 were 105,000 to 110,000 units, an increase of 21.3% to 27.1% over the previous year. The revenue guideline was 29.9 billion - 31.4 billion yuan, up 4.2%-9.4% year on year. Considering that the company delivered 26,000 units in April, it is estimated that the monthly delivery volume for May and June was around 40,000 units. We believe that the biggest driving force for Ideal sales growth this year comes from Ideal L6. Since its launch on April 18, the number of orders for Ideal L6 has exceeded 41,000 orders, and monthly sales are expected to reach more than 20,000 units in the future. After the failure of MEGA's listing, the company's management adjusted development strategies, carried out organizational upgrades, personnel and process optimization, and improved internal operation efficiency. The company refocused its development focus on extended-range products. The pure electric SUV model originally planned to be launched in the second half of '24 was adjusted to launch in '25. In the future, the company will need to increase the construction of overcharged piles and increase sales booths in stores.