Incidents:
In March 2024, Baike Biotech disclosed the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1,825 million yuan, +70.30% year over year; realized net profit of 501 million yuan, +175.98% year over year; realized net profit of 493 million yuan without return to mother, +195.86% year over year.
2024Q1 achieved operating income of 270 million yuan, +50.64% year over year; net profit to mother of 61 million yuan, +229.50% year over year; net profit without return to mother of 60 million yuan, +228.87% year on year.
Sales of the chickenpox vaccine are under slight pressure. Looking at the incremental contribution of the shingles vaccine by product, the company's chickenpox vaccine sales revenue in 2023 was 820 million yuan, -14.36% over the same period last year, and sales were under slight pressure. In 2023, the company's shingles vaccine sales revenue reached 883 million yuan, contributing to a significant increase in sales.
The gross margin of sales has increased significantly, and the three fees have been optimized
In 2023, the company's gross sales margin was 90.23%, +3.04pct. Among them, the gross margin for the shingles vaccine was 97.50%, and the gross margin for the chickenpox vaccine was 85.35%, -2.72 pct year on year. We believe that with further deployment of the shingles vaccine, the gross margin is expected to increase further. In 2023, the company's sales expense ratio was 35.47%, -2.95pct; the management expense ratio was 8.73%, -4.75pct year on year; R&D expenses rate was 10.86%, -1.60pct year on year.
R&D projects are progressing steadily
In 2023, several of the company's products in the research pipeline have made key progress: the liquid nasal spray influenza vaccine is about to apply for marketing approval, and the project progress is basically in line with the company's expectations; rabies monoclonal antibody is undergoing phase I clinical trials; tetanus monoclonal has obtained a “Drug Clinical Trial Approval Notice” and is preparing to conduct phase I clinical trials.
Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings
The 2024Q1 company's performance is growing rapidly. We believe that as the chickenpox vaccine continues to sell and the shingles vaccine continues to contribute to sales growth, the performance may be expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate. Taking into account factors such as changes in the company's product structure, we adjusted the 2024 revenue from 2,362 billion yuan to 2,389 million yuan, the 2025-2026 revenue forecast to be 27.51/3.098 billion yuan; the 2024 net profit forecast was adjusted from 603 million yuan to 709 million yuan, and the net profit forecast for 2025-2026 was 853,07 million yuan. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of long-term technology iteration, risk of core technology leakage or infringement, risk that clinical progress of research projects falls short of expectations, risk that research projects cannot be successfully industrialized.