The Zhitong Finance App learned that on May 23, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that in April 2024, China achieved exports of 556,000 units, a growth rate of 31% compared with April 2023, and an increase of 13% over the previous month, which is a good month-on-month trend; in January-April, China's automobile exports reached 1.88,000 units, and the export growth rate was 26%. The growth rate in the first quarter slowed compared to the high growth rate of the previous three years, and the growth rate rebounded in April. In April 2024, 207,000 NEVs were exported, up 58% year on year; in January-April, 660,000 NEVs were exported, up 58% year on year.

Cui Dongshu pointed out that the main driving force this year is still the increase in the competitiveness of Chinese products, the slight increase in the European and American markets, and the total replacement of international brands in the Russian market by Chinese cars under the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. In particular, the increase in exports due to the increase in the competitiveness of China's fuel vehicle exports. In April 2024, China's automobile exports reached 35.9 billion US dollars, and the export growth rate was 21.2%. The average price of automobile exports from January to April 2024 was 19,000 US dollars, compared with 19,000 US dollars in 2023, which is still basically the same.

The top five countries of China's total automobile exports in April 2024: Russia 93,478, Brazil 47,389, Mexico 38,997, UAE 31,237, Belgium 27,293; the top five countries where China's automobile exports increased in April: Brazil 43,134, UAE, 17,902, Russia, 7,673, and Belgium 7137.

The top five countries with total vehicle exports from January to April 2024: Russia 268,779, Mexico 148,705, Brazil 10,6448, Belgium 95,230, UAE 8,5869; the top five countries that increased China's automobile exports in April: Brazil 89,709, Russia 51,132, UAE 38,915, Mexico 31,940, and Kyrgyzstan 30,812. The increase of the top 5 countries contributed 65%. Among them, Brazil's exports contributed greatly.

Markets such as Israel, Australia, Spain, the Netherlands, and France declined significantly from January to April 2024; the Central Asian and Russian markets all performed relatively well, and even the Russian market became an incremental core market. The top five countries with total NEV exports in April 2024: Brazil 40,159, Belgium 25,298, UK 16,287, Thailand 13,906, Australia 12,353; the top five countries where China's NEV exports increased in April 2023 compared to April 2023: Brazil 3,7074, Belgium 6,339, Mexico 6325, UK 5179, and UAE 5025.

The top five countries with total NEV exports from January to April 2024: Belgium 88,816, Brazil 85,466, UK 51,097, Thailand 46570, Philippines 38,106; the top five countries that increased China's automobile exports in April: Brazil 77,249, Mexico 18,486, the United Arab Emirates 13,786, South Korea 11872, and Kyrgyzstan 11,345. The incremental contribution of the top 5 countries was 94%, of which Brazil's exports contributed greatly.

In April 2024, 207,000 NEVs were exported, up 58% year on year; from January to April, 660,000 new energy vehicles were exported, up 58% year on year; from January to April 2024, exports of new energy passenger vehicles were 650,000 units, up 30% year on year, and NEV exports accounted for 97% of total NEV exports. Recently, exports of new energy buses and special vehicles have declined rapidly. In January-April, the growth rate of NEV exports slowed sharply to 0.25 million units, a decrease of 15%.

Cui Dongshu said that export growth is driven by help from heaven, high quality, human effort, and geographical change. The first is Tianbang — China's automobile industry chain is resilient; the second is the increase in the export contribution of high quality and new energy; the third is human effort - independent brand companies are working hard; the fourth is geopolitical change - the overall development of China's exports.

China's NEV exports are showing high quality development to developed markets, mainly to Western Europe and Southeast Asia. In the past two years, developed countries such as Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom in Western Europe and Southern Europe have continued to be export highlights, while exports to Brazil and other American countries have strengthened this year. Self-branded NEV models such as SAIC passenger cars and BYD performed well. Although exports of new energy vehicles to Europe have temporarily slowed, it is expected that as Europe gradually adapts to the effects of countervailing measures, China's exports to Europe should be able to pick up.

1. Characteristics of the growth rate of automobile exports

China's automobile exports finally broke through the million-level platform period in 2021 after many years. After a sharp decline due to the downturn in the world economy in 2013-2016, the export growth rate gradually improved steadily in 2017-2020, and the annual export volume remained at around 1 million units. Exports reached 1.08 million units in 2020, down 13% year on year, and then entered a period of high growth.

Due to the impact of the world pandemic and Tesla's domestic production, China's automobile exports achieved huge breakthroughs in sales volume and unit price in 2021-2023. In 2023, China's automobile exports reached 5.22 million units, and the export growth rate continued to grow strongly at a rate of 57%. From January to April 2024, China exported 1.88 million vehicles, an increase of 26% over the previous year. As long as there is a stable international market environment, there is still huge room for future development of China's automobile exports.

Sales in 2020 reached 1.085 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. The export market sold 2.187 million units in 2021, an increase of 102% over the previous year.

The export market sold 3.4 million units in 2022, an increase of 55% over the previous year, mainly due to insufficient overseas supply and a significant increase in the export competitiveness of Chinese car companies. In 2023, Chinese automobiles achieved exports of 5.22 million units, and continued strong export growth of 54%. The performance was excellent. Compared with the gradual recovery in domestic automobile sales, the export market's performance is still excellent. China's exports have grown significantly in the past two years under the international pandemic+Russia-Ukraine crisis.

In April 2024, Chinese automobiles achieved exports of 556,000 units, with a growth rate of 31% compared to April 2023 and an increase of 13% over the previous month. The month-on-month trend was very good; in January-April, China exported 1.88,000 units, and the export growth rate was 26%. The growth rate in the first quarter slowed compared to the high growth rate of the previous three years, and the growth rate rebounded in April. The main driving force this year is still the increase in the competitiveness of Chinese products and the slight increase in the European and American markets, and the total replacement of international brands in the Russian market by Chinese cars under the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. In particular, the increase in exports brought about by the increase in the competitiveness of China's fuel vehicle exports.

2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports

Judging from monthly trends, exports in recent years are still showing seasonal characteristics, showing the characteristic of peaking and falling back in summer as a roller coaster. The auto market had a strong start in 2022, but exports declined month-on-month in February-April, which was affected by the Shanghai epidemic, and continued to rise in May-December. Meanwhile, exports continued to be strong in 2023, maintaining sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a significant increase in the global competitiveness of the Chinese automobile industry.

From January to April 2024, China's automobile exports were basically in line with the monthly trend of previous years. From March to April, exports rose sharply from month to month. Exports increased by only 20% in January-February of this year, and automobile exports have strengthened recently.

3. Structural characteristics of automobile exports

Until 2020, exports remained at the level of one million. In 2021, exports of complete vehicles (including chassis) were 2.19 million units, with a growth rate of 102%, which is quite good. Four-wheel drive SUVs and other passenger cars had good export performance in 2021-2022.

Automobile exports strengthened across the board in 2023. Oil trucks were strong. Passenger cars were the main export force, growing at a rate of 65%. Among them, exports of four-wheel drive SUVs and minibuses were better.

Demand in the Russian market is weak in 2024, and passenger car exports are more resilient. The export performance of buses and special vehicles was weak, and the trend of bus exports increasing by 5% in April declined.

Customs truck exports increased 6% this year. Compared with the recovery of domestic trucks, exports of various types of trucks have been sluggish recently.

From a structural point of view, the share of passenger car exports continues to rise, and the share of trucks and buses has declined sharply. The increase in passenger car performance is due to exports of unlisted passenger cars. In 2024, exports of unlisted passenger cars will account for 35% of passenger cars.

Among trucks, light trucks showed good growth performance, and tractor export performance declined. Among buses, large and medium-sized buses are picking up, while light buses are slightly weaker.

4. Structural characteristics of automobile exports

The growth rate of passenger car exports rebounded in 2024, and the trend in April was higher than the growth rate in the first quarter. The export of pure electric passenger cars rebounded in April 2024, and the plug-in hybrid continued to strengthen. In January-April, exports of gasoline passenger cars and buses were strong, and the trend of diesel trucks and gasoline light buses was strong, and the growth momentum changed.

In 2024, passenger car NEV exports account for 41% of passenger cars, while truck exports account for 3% of new energy, and bus exports account for 10% of new energy, which shows that China's NEV passenger vehicles are highly recognized at home and abroad, and demand for electrification of buses etc. is low in overseas markets.

Before 2019, exports of new energy vehicles were large, but passenger cars were mainly micro low-speed electric vehicles, and the actual number of mainstream new energy models was small.

The export structure and quantity performance of new energy passenger vehicles have improved. Renewable energy exports performed well in 2020-2022, with a total export of 1.73 million NEVs in 2023.

In April 2024, 207,000 NEVs were exported, up 58% year on year; from January to April, 660,000 new energy vehicles were exported, up 27% year on year; from January to April 2024, exports of new energy passenger vehicles were 650,000 units, up 30% year on year, and NEV exports accounted for 98% of total NEV exports. Recently, exports of new energy buses and special vehicles have declined rapidly. In January-April, the growth rate of NEV exports slowed sharply to 0.25 million units, a decrease of 15%.