#黄金技术分析 #24K99讯 In the Asian market on Thursday (May 23), spot gold maintained an intraday decline. Currently, the price of gold is around 2,372 US dollars/ounce. On this trading day, investors will focus on US PMI data, which is expected to trigger market conditions. FXStreet analyst Lallalit Srijandorn wrote a recent article on Thursday analyzing technical trends in gold prices.
Gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday, Srijandorn wrote. There may be limited room for further upside in gold prices, as the latest FOMC minutes have been interpreted as being far more hawkish than previous minutes. The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious attitude of its restrictive policies for a longer period of time, broadly boosting the dollar and putting some selling pressure on gold prices.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes of the April 30 to May 1 monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The minutes showed that Fed officials were increasingly concerned about inflation at recent meetings. Members said they lacked confidence in advancing interest rate cuts.
Federal Reserve officials discussed the need to keep interest rates stable for a longer period of time, or lower interest rates when the labor market weakens, while “many” participating officials also mentioned that they are willing to raise interest rates if necessary.
According to the minutes, “Many participants mentioned that they are willing to further tighten policies and take appropriate action if the future risk becomes a reality.”
Spot gold closed down $42.10, or 1.74%, to $2378.57 per ounce on Wednesday. In early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, spot gold once fell sharply to 2366.70 US dollars/ounce, setting an intraday low.
Srijandorn said that looking ahead to this trading day, gold traders will pay close attention to the initial value of the US manufacturing and service purchasing managers' index (PMI) for May. Weak data may raise hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates and support the price of gold.
At 9:45 Beijing time on Thursday, the initial values of the US Markit manufacturing PMI and service sector PMI for May will be released. They are expected to be 50.0 and 51.3, respectively.
Srijandorn added that geopolitical tension and sticky inflation could support precious metals and limit downside in the short term. In addition to this, the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index, the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week, new home sales, and Federal Reserve official Bostic's speech will receive attention.
Gold's latest technical analysis
Srijandorn pointed out that so far on Thursday, the price of gold has shown a downward trend. Judging from the daily gold chart, as the price of gold remains above the key 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), the constructive view on gold remains unchanged. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained above the bullish zone on the 14th and is currently around 56.10, which temporarily supports buyers.
Despite this, as the price of gold reached an all-time high on May 20, the price of gold has formed a bearish divergence, but the RSI has formed a lower high, which indicates that the momentum is slowing down, and the price of gold may be adjusted or consolidated in the near future.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
According to Srijandorn, the key resistance levels for gold prices will be near the upper Bollinger band and at historic highs of $2,450 per ounce. If it breaks through this level, the price of gold will target the psychological threshold of 2,500 US dollars/ounce.
On the downside, Srijandorn added that the May 13 low of $2,32/oz was the initial support level for gold. Another notable support is the lower Bollinger band of $2,270 per ounce.
Once it falls below these levels, the price of gold may fall further to the 100-day EMA ($2,216 per ounce).
At 12:54 Hong Kong time, spot gold was reported at $2372.52 per ounce.