Is the US economy in recession? At least, according to Harris's recent poll for Britain's “Guardian”, most Americans think so. 55% of respondents think the US economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession.

In fact, the US economy has not fallen into recession. Judging from some indicators, the US economy is developing at full speed. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the US gross domestic product (GDP) has grown faster than in the previous decade, and the unemployment rate is close to its lowest level in history.

The poll results highlight a huge gap between Americans' perception of the economic situation and reality.

According to the survey results, 49% of people think the S&P 500 index will fall in 2024, but in fact, the index has risen by about 11% so far, continuing the 24% increase in 2023.

Nearly half of the respondents said they think the unemployment rate is at its highest level in 50 years, but in fact, the unemployment rate has remained below 4% for more than two years, close to the lowest level in 50 years.

72% of respondents said they think inflation is rising, but in fact, the inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has dropped by more than half since then.

The number of employed people in the US has reached record levels, income is growing faster than the rate of inflation, and 401k account balances have reached record levels, yet most Americans surveyed by Harris still believe that the economic situation is serious.

Note: A 401k is a retirement account shared by an employer and an individual. As long as the company provides a 401k plan, you can participate.

The reason for this gap appears to be continuing dissatisfaction with inflation.

Although data shows that inflation is largely under control, and prices are rising at a much lower rate than during the pandemic, Americans are still feeling the sting of rising prices in grocery stores, car dealerships, and real estate markets.

Americans want prices to return to pre-pandemic levels, but this requires deflation, not just anti-inflation. This is likely to have to happen at the same time as a very weak economy, so it's unlikely to happen.

Another reason why Americans' views on the economy are out of touch with the actual state of the economy seems to be politics.

According to the poll, 58% of respondents said they think the economic deterioration is due to poor management by the Biden administration. When the results are broken down by political faction, the impact of politics on Americans' perception is even more obvious.

Although 56% of respondents said they think the economy is in recession, the number was higher among those who claimed to be Republicans, at 67%, while the percentage of respondents who claimed to be Democrats and think the US is in recession was lower, at 49%.

The poll results highlight the “recession” felt by millions of Americans over the past year, which may eventually significantly hinder Biden's chances of re-election.